"They are politicians!" – the Politics thread

Topic

Sponsored by General Martok, (Lord Vetinari declined to be involved) here’s the thread for covering political goings on.

Replies

Silly Dave, it’s not the same when Trump does it.

Well a lot depends on what Iran is going to do next. If they do something big like closing off the Gulf, or bombing Tel Aviv, then this could be Trump’s war. I kinda think Iran won’t do that. But who the hell knows.

Honestly, I think Iran wants a war, and for more than a decade now, it has been inevitable. I think all Obama’s deal would have done if kept was delay it, and change the players.

US kills the nr 2 person in a country, then says that country is the one that wants war.

 

 

I am not really sure what Iran’s endgame is. I don’t think a war is winnable though. There is no good route to invade Iran and it’s basically Switzerland but 100 times bigger. (It’s also 4 times the size of Iraq. It’s huge.) And Russia and China will support Iran. It’s madness. Maybe Trump hopes that if the US does some bombing the regime will be overthrown, but that isn’t very likely.

 

 

Londo: Refa, any force attempting to invade Narn would be up to its neck in blood. lts own.
Refa: We have no intention of invading Narn. Flattening it, yes. But invading it? We will be using mass drivers. When we are done, their cities will be in ruins. We can move in at our leisure.
Londo: Mass drivers? They have been outlawed by every civilized planet.
Refa: These are uncivilized times.
Londo: We have treaties.
Refa: lnk on a page!

Sadly as suspected Trump’s isolationist stance wouldn’t last.

Not with the US, necessarily, but at least a local war that would cause more powerful countries to react, even if not through direct military action.

Iran is a bit more careful than to start actual wars though, they haven’t done that since I think the 18th century when they fought with Georgia and Russia. They act via groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen and the Assad government that operate in tandem with their intentions. They don’t want to invade other countries, but they do want to install friendly regimes. They don’t want to restore the Achaemenid empire.

 

Honestly I don’t believe this will become a full blown war. I really hope it won’t. I think Iran got a bit too cocky attacking US troops. It will be very important to see how Russia and China react. If Iran closes of the strait of Hormuz China is screwed too.

 

OPCW leaks expose ‘criminal’ Syria cover-up — and US media is silent

 

Ugh, somehow it doesn’t copy paste well. But the link outlines that there were shenanigans that distorted the opcw report on the alleged Douma gas attacks they accused Assad of doing. I tried to go through some of the stuff but it made me go crosseyed. It’s a confusing mess.

Oh, no – it actually worked here. Emissions went down significantly –

– and most households, particularly lower-middle income ones were more than compensated for any cost of living increases. It’s not a matter of giving the government money – it’s funnelling money quite cleverly from recalcitrant businesses and industries to poorer citizens. Rather than the tax it was portrayed as by the conservatives here, it was a fine for bad behaviour. Business generally don’t do anything out of the goodness of their corporate hearts – they usually need to be forced.

The options for your business that pollutes too much, when mine has spent money upfront to clean up my act (making my costs higher and my product less competitive), are to either pay a fine (and possibly raise your prices in line with my business – level playing field), or spend money to clean up your act (and raise prices in line with my business – level playing field).

Anonymous wrote:

Honestly I don’t believe this will become a full blown war. I really hope it won’t. I think Iran got a bit too cocky attacking US troops. It will be very important to see how Russia and China react. If Iran closes of the strait of Hormuz China is screwed too.

Also, the attack on the US embassy crossed a line much greater than estimated on the Iranian side. I think they realized this a little too late.

At the same time, Trump has a way of using certain bold, aggressive moves to get something completely different. Right now there is just too much American presence in Iraq. Heating up the conflict with Iran could lead to pulling out a great deal of personnel and allowing greater flexibility for US military to select objectives and targets. No one – especially Trump – wants the US to remain in Iraq or Afghanistan any more than we wanted to stay in Lebanon or Somalia in the 80’s and 90’s. There is no objective or benefit to be gained from maintaining such a major troop presence and continuing any wider diplomatic presence.

Iran’s options are limited as well – especially if the US pulls back and depends more on its longer range capabilities. It may be friendly with Russia and China, but neither of them are going to support a war – especially when they want to make deals with Trump over trade and sanctions. Same with North Korea who is one of Iran’s allies as well.

Meanwhile, if Suliemani was so important, it’s going to take a while for them to reorganize to be effective threats, and if he wasn’t then there is little reason to respond too forcefully. So, by the time Iran is ready to respond, tensions might have already cooled.

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Honestly I don’t believe this will become a full blown war. I really hope it won’t. I think Iran got a bit too cocky attacking US troops. It will be very important to see how Russia and China react. If Iran closes of the strait of Hormuz China is screwed too.

Also, the attack on the US embassy crossed a line much greater than estimated on the Iranian side. I think they realized this a little too late.

At the same time, Trump has a way of using certain bold, aggressive moves to get something completely different. Right now there is just too much American presence in Iraq. Heating up the conflict with Iran could lead to pulling out a great deal of personnel and allowing greater flexibility for US military to select objectives and targets. No one – especially Trump – wants the US to remain in Iraq or Afghanistan any more than we wanted to stay in Lebanon or Somalia in the 80’s and 90’s. There is no objective or benefit to be gained from maintaining such a major troop presence and continuing any wider diplomatic presence.

Iran’s options are limited as well – especially if the US pulls back and depends more on its longer range capabilities. It may be friendly with Russia and China, but neither of them are going to support a war – especially when they want to make deals with Trump over trade and sanctions. Same with North Korea who is one of Iran’s allies as well.

Meanwhile, if Suliemani was so important, it’s going to take a while for them to reorganize to be effective threats, and if he wasn’t then there is little reason to respond too forcefully. So, by the time Iran is ready to respond, tensions might have already cooled.

I really, really hope so. Part of me is afraid this is Israel and Saudi Arabia pushing the Middle East into war.

Iran’s most likely first move will be cyberattacks.

Anonymous wrote:

I really, really hope so. Part of me is afraid this is Israel and Saudi Arabia pushing the Middle East into war.

Certainly they want to deal with the threat Iran poses to their security. However, Iran is acting because the allies threaten its security. So everyone has essentially the same goal – securing their domestic powerbase and influencing regional politics to minimize external threats. The balance here is that all parties need the external threats to maintain control domestically. However, they would all be devastated by a regional war – and even after the fighting ends, the outcome would be decades of detrimental chaos.

So, it’s a lot of poking around while the superpowers – US, Russia and China – jockey for position to pick up the pieces. I think Iran has the most to lose, and despite all the outrage now, a strike as bold as this might actually deter their aggression since it’s not just their proxies who are in the line of fire.

Suleimani was somewhat of a mythical hero across the shia world and in Syria. He was a hero from the Iran-Iraq war, he organized much of the Iraqi insurgency, and the push back against ISIS by the Assad regime and Iraqi paramilitary forces. Killing him is like an amalgamation of killing James Mattis and Keanu Reeves. However I don’t think it means the Iranian military can’t function without him.

One thing I’m afraid of is if the US is going to attack shia groups in the region, is ISIS is going to make a come back. If Iran is attacked you could see a war zone stretching from Afghanistan to Yemen and Libya.

Anybody else who flat-out assassinated another country’s #2 person would end up in The Hague on war crimes.

There’s even a clever mnemonic – “Rule 89”

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customary-ihl/eng/docs/v1_rul_rule89

Apparently, murder and assassination are frowned upon by the international community of humans (and perpetrated by the International Society of Narcissistic Oligarchs).  What I do not see yet is a power base ready  and able to step in if the Senate trial goes the way I think it will. (I suspect connections to be revealed, and the head GOP to be treated to a RICO-like purge, leaving only judges to jail black people). The lack here is opposition organization. Both the US and UK have been blindsided by Russian and Chinese propaganda of the new type – insidious internet commentary. Capitalist forces have been allowed to jam themselves with performance-enhancing laws and underregulation to the point their most basic advertising has become a psy-op against the homebound (assuring the opioid crisis happened).  Welcome to 2020, when the pieces all start to come together to forma horrible tapestry of lies, deceit, greed and plain old delusions. It has taken a while, but the “woke” thing (that never really happened, but a lot of idiots parroted words and viewpoints to prove how “woke” they were and just as promptly forgot all about it) is starting to happen at the deeper level it needs to occur.

And the day “oligarchy” is googled as much as “Kardashian” I will attempt to revive some hope.

Ok just fucking impeach him. And impeach Pence in the same breath. This clown just said Iran was responsible for 911.

 

Assisted in the clandestine travel to Afghanistan of 10 of the 12 terrorists who carried out the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

— Mike Pence (@Mike_Pence) January 3, 2020

Honestly if Iran is smart they don’t do anything, they just urge Iraq to throw out the Americans and strengthen their grip on their proxies in Iraq. The US being shown the door by the Iraqis might be the best revenge.

 

Trump just tweeted they have determined 52 possible targets in Iran, including culturally important sites. That could be a war crime. If he bombs some of the anicent Persian sites or important mosques, the world should unite against the US.

Anonymous wrote:

Ok just fucking impeach him. And impeach Pence in the same breath. This clown just said Iran was responsible for 911.

 

Assisted in the clandestine travel to Afghanistan of 10 of the 12 terrorists who carried out the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States.

— Mike Pence (@Mike_Pence) January 3, 2020

He also got the number of Hijackers wrong.

I need a break from the news again…I’m not really sleeping anymore. This shit is getting to me. Sorry if I get on your nerves.

 

Back to the food and drink thread I think.