The Random Thread Of Randomosity

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Same here. I had my bikes stolen multiple times over the years – the last time was just a month or so ago (it was an e-bike, and luckily I had insurance).

This avatar is the Megara. Justice machines.

T2 might be fair warning about AI, and the Megara are fair warning about AI as judge, jury and executioner.

A mental health worker years ago said something to me years ago along the lines of: “You have to believe there is always a solution for everything.” That struck me as terribly naive back then and I said I can’t believe that. For some situations there is no solution.

 

Still, I think there is some truth to it. If you fall into hopelessness, you end up becoming depressed. It is learned helplessness.

 

(Of course the big exception is fatal disease and death)

Arjan Dirkse wrote:

A mental health worker years ago said something to me years ago along the lines of: “You have to believe there is always a solution for everything.” That struck me as terribly naive back then and I said I can’t believe that. For some situations there is no solution.

 

Still, I think there is some truth to it. If you fall into hopelessness, you end up becoming depressed. It is learned helplessness.

 

(Of course the big exception is fatal disease and death)

Sometimes, the search for the solution is the solution.

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Arjan Dirkse

That’s true I guess sometimes just staying confident and keeping on looking for a solution can be a solution in itself.

 

I think also sometimes a solution can be something very different from what you thought. For instance, if you feel you have to have something, like money or some material goods, in order to be happy, but you can’t get it for whatever reason, the solution might be to learn to live without it.

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njerry, Todd

Randomly speaking: Social media got these puzzles etc. that get you wrapped up in it. For me, it’s this Monte Hall paradox.
I used to watch “Let’s Make a Deal” when I was sick and stayed home from school. It’s like this:

The problem states that there’s 3 doors and behind one of them is a car. You chose one of the doors, but before opening it the host (Monte) opens one of the 2 other doors and shows that it’s empty, then he asks you if you want to change your choice or keep the same door. Logically, there would be no point in changing your answer since now it’s a 50% chance either the car is in the door u chose or the one not opened yet, but mathematically it’s supposedly better to change your choice cause it’s 2/3 it’s in the other door and 1/3 chance it’s the same door.

It seems to be an illusion that it is now 50/50:

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/

Al-x wrote:

Randomly speaking: Social media got these puzzles etc. that get you wrapped up in it. For me, it’s this Monte Hall paradox.
I used to watch “Let’s Make a Deal” when I was sick and stayed home from school. It’s like this:

The problem states that there’s 3 doors and behind one of them is a car. You chose one of the doors, but before opening it the host (Monte) opens one of the 2 other doors and shows that it’s empty, then he asks you if you want to change your choice or keep the same door. Logically, there would be no point in changing your answer since now it’s a 50% chance either the car is in the door u chose or the one not opened yet, but mathematically it’s supposedly better to change your choice cause it’s 2/3 it’s in the other door and 1/3 chance it’s the same door.

It seems to be an illusion that it is now 50/50:

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/

The key behind the Monty Hall problem is realising that when one of the doors is opened, you are being given additional information based on secret knowledge that skews the odds so that it’s not just random chance any more.

The simplest way to put it is that there are three possible first choices with the three doors.

The likelihood that you chose the door with the car is only 1 in 3.

This means that when the first door is opened (which will always be an empty door – because the host knows which door has the prize) there is only a 1 in 3 chance that the other door is also empty – because for that to happen you would have to have chosen the prize door to begin with.

So the odds are in your favour if you switch doors, because essentially the odds of both the other doors have been combined into a single 2-in-3-chance door.

Another way to make the underlying logic clearer is to multiply up the scale of the problem (because having only three doors confuses us into not understanding the odds).

So this time, there are a million doors. Again, you choose one door to start. Again, the host opens every single other door except one – so 999,998 doors.

Again, you have the same choice – stick or change? What are the chances you got the right door to start with? What are the chances the car is behind the other door?

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Todd

The suspense is killing me, Dave! Just tell me: DID I WIN THE CAR?!?

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garjones, Todd, Martin Smith, Sean Robinson

njerry wrote:

The suspense is killing me, Dave! Just tell me: DID I WIN THE CAR?!?

No, you got the donkey.

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njerry, Al-x

Years ago, on W 14th St. there were plenty of 3 card Monty games played on the sidewalk with crates. That “trick” was always used and one of the players betting was in league with the dealer setting you up. Someone would always pass by and give a code word that the cops were coming and they would all disperse. Street gambling.

These days, who needs street gambling when FanDuel, DraftKings BetMGM and other apps let you lose your money while sitting in your easy chair at home?

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Todd, Sean Robinson

Bat Country, the podcast that I’m watching of the alcoholic guy, describes what he does as suicidal binge drinking. I think he’s right, that is what it is. It is a sort of crypto suicide, of people who can’t bear to deal with the thoughts that plague them when unsufficiently intoxicated. He mentions how becoming brutally honest is part of the strategy for staying sober. But honesty is something many can’t afford. “Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way” as the song goes, and I think that holds true for much of Northern Europe. Southern Europe has much fewer catastrophic alcoholics.

 

There’s lots of alcoholics in the building where I live (as well as hoarders, which is kind of similar I think). In the US they would probably live on the street, so at least we keep them in homes. We don’t really have the opioid epidemic the US has, but some people have been warning it could move here.

Is “buttcheeks” one word?

Or do you spread them apart?

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Todd

Sean Robinson wrote:

Is “buttcheeks” one word?

Or do you spread them apart?

I’m not sure, but the bottom has dropped out of the laxative market.

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lorcan_nagle, Sean Robinson

I think I found the worst youtube slop video. Some nonsense about “Buddhism” that mixes together different forms of Buddhism, also throws in Hinduism and new age stuff, talking nonsense about magical monks with psychic powers that have “lived since the Stone Age” and I think it uses snippets of footage from other videos that have little relation to the narration of the video.

Speaking of newagist magic nonsense, I was at an exhibition last week about alternative forms of living in Germany around 1900 and it was a lot of fun. Lots of people doing naked dances, mostly (Hermann Hesse amongst them), and some very cool art (my highlight was a great sculpture of Madame Blavatsky).

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Todd

I was amused by a youtube video of a Dutchie in LA complaining about American people he was acquainted with spending too much, which caused them to end up with all kinds of financial problems. Very Dutch.

This is an interesting piece in the New Yorker by Ruby Tandoh about Bake Off – generally and being on it.

Powerball is at 1B this weekend

——-

I see selective nostalgia postings online that go like this:

There was no wars. No genocides. No terrorist attacks. No school shootings. No riots in major cities. No drug epidemics. No police brutality. No mass layoffs. No climate change or environmental disasters. No poverty, no homelessness. No corporate greed or outsourcing jobs. No racial tension, no protests, no marches.

The government was honest. Corporations cared. The media told the truth. Kids respected teachers. Celebrities were role models. And nobody ever got canceled because nobody ever did anything wrong.

You Zoomers wouldn’t get it.
🤣

Al-x wrote:

There was no wars. No genocides. No terrorist attacks. No school shootings. No riots in major cities. No drug epidemics. No police brutality. No mass layoffs. No climate change or environmental disasters. No poverty, no homelessness. No corporate greed or outsourcing jobs. No racial tension, no protests, no marches.

The government was honest. Corporations cared. The media told the truth. Kids respected teachers. Celebrities were role models. And nobody ever got canceled because nobody ever did anything wrong.

Yeah, the past was great. Unless you were a minority. Or homosexual. Or non-Christian. Or a young woman wanting more out of life than to become a wife and mother. Or a low-wage worker trying to strike for better wages, shorter hours, or benefits. Or a third world country being exploited for its natural resources or its cheap labor.

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Al-x, Dave

My grandfather died in a concentration camp.

So sorry to hear that Arjan.

———-

I am in the city and see the local stores with lines for the 1.4B Powerball ticket. The fantasy. All these office pools… In the past the winning ticket would always be in the outskirts of the area ie. some lonely gas station in New Jersey or a store in Maryland, Virginia, never in midtown Manhattan. Maybe drive out there and play numbers.

Al-x wrote:

I am in the city and see the local stores with lines for the 1.4B Powerball ticket. The fantasy. All these office pools… In the past the winning ticket would always be in the outskirts of the area ie. some lonely gas station in New Jersey or a store in Maryland, Virginia, never in midtown Manhattan. Maybe drive out there and play numbers.

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Todd

Of course not. Location has no bearing, and there are no “lucky” places and no “lucky” numbers, whether it’s from fortune cookies, came to you in a dream, buy at the same store. And yet people buy into the illusion. The odds are incredible, but if you buy two you double your chances. 🤣

It costs $2 to play and because it is past the billion mark, more are buying tickets $20-50 worth in. Now the prize is up to 1.7B for this Saturday.

Al-x wrote:

there are no “lucky” places

Except if you buy them from me. Luck guaranteed.

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Todd

What I find interesting is, when the lotteries are 30M no one really cares. But… when nobody wins for a while and the pot goes up to 5-700M, 1B, more people get into it buying 20-30 different numbers each time, and that accelerates the prize money. Now that it’s 1.7B this Saturday and if there are no winners, after Saturday it could go up to 2B.

All these office pools buying tickets, each office feeling they will win as much as the other. I’m not sure, but if you win in NY, you might have to put your picture and name out there, you can’t be anonymous. Also if you win, you will have friends and acquaintances you never knew you had, even from 20 years ago. 🤣

It makes sense to me: why waste $2 on a $30M jackpot when I can wait a few weeks and waste $2 on a $1B megapot?!

Yeah, people are stupid. I mean, ALL OF US!! We’re ALL stupid. Except for Dave Wallace.

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Uncle Retrospective, Dave, Al-x

njerry wrote:

Except for Dave Wallace.

We prefer to say Dave is “intellectually unenhanced”.

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Uncle Retrospective, Dave

Todd wrote:

njerry wrote:

Except for Dave Wallace.

We prefer to say Dave is “intellectually unenhanced”.

Me not understand

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Uncle Retrospective, Todd, njerry

njerry wrote:

It makes sense to me: why waste $2 on a $30M jackpot when I can wait a few weeks and waste $2 on a $1B megapot?!

Yeah, people are stupid. I mean, ALL OF US!! We’re ALL stupid. Except for Dave Wallace.

Fate will be kinder when you are humble and buy a ticket for the 30M lottery than when you get arrogant and buy for the 1B. Hubris plays a large part in probability.

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Uncle Retrospective

Now, what are the odds that someone would at the very least include 61 and 62 together in their numbers? I read that 12345 is just as probable to win as any other sequence one might think of that “looks right”: one single digit, one in the teens, two in the twenties etc. It is that remote.

But… there were two winners, one in Missouri and the other in Texas. There were some 1M winners scattered across different states, but the big winners are not in NYC. Location, location, location. 🤣

Al-x wrote:

Now, what are the odds that someone would at the very least include 61 and 62 together in their numbers?

Some people use birthday numbers as part of their lottery picks, so I could see this being won by a very lucky couple in their mid-sixties.

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Al-x

Honestly I don’t even think I would want to win 2 billion. It would completely throw my life into chaos.

Arjan Dirkse wrote:

Honestly I don’t even think I would want to win 2 billion. It would completely throw my life into chaos.

Well, if you ever do, you’re welcome to give it to me. I’ll take on that responsibility.

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Uncle Retrospective, Al-x, Dave, Sean Robinson, Todd

You’d have to live with constant security as a billionaire. Really I think it would suck. Can’t even take a piss without someone standing guard.

I feel like I could live with the potential injuries from pissing without needing a guard.

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Todd

Why in the fuck is Arnold Schwarzenegger doing ads for lidl…don’t these people have enough money at a certain point…

Arjan Dirkse wrote:

You’d have to live with constant security as a billionaire. Really I think it would suck. Can’t even take a piss without someone standing guard.

In all honesty, there is some truth to that. There have been murders by friends and family members over this.

I made light of winning and all of a sudden people you haven’t heard from in over 20 years calling you (“Remember me? We played in the sandbox when we were 4.”) But I heard of an office pool member who won and tried to separate her ticket from the pool. She did not want to split it with her department peers.

It can be a mess.

But I would still chance it.

Al-x wrote:

In all honesty, there is some truth to that. There have been murders by friends and family members over this.

Yeah I would be paranoid as hell. I have a tendency to worry about stuff.

 

It’s even officially a mental illness:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_wealth_syndrome

 

 

Yesterday was Miqque Loveland’s birthday… May he continue to rest in peace

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Uncle Retrospective, lorcan_nagle, Dave, Bruce, Sean Robinson, Todd

Al-x wrote:

Yesterday was Miqque Loveland’s birthday… May he continue to rest in peace

I thought about him.

I do miss him.

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Bruce, Al-x

Al-x wrote:

Yesterday was Miqque Loveland’s birthday… May he continue to rest in peace

There’s no way Miqque’s resting in peace, he’s up there giving everyone both barrels.

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Sean Robinson, Bruce, Todd

[Arjan Dirkse]

Just like bookstores there used to be multiple stores that sold musical instruments in town but that number dwindled. Now there is just one store that sells guitars and they’re super expensive, their cheapest acoustic guitars are like 500 euros and the prices go up over ten thousand euros for their expensive models. They’re very good but it’s a lot of money.

• This reply was modified 3 weeks, 6 days ago by Arjan Dirkse.

I am reading of all these changes to Saturday Night Live how 8 cast members left, 5 new ones, the people that did the small cartoon segments left, etc. Too much of a shakeup. I heard stories about Lorne Michaels and the show.

It always came across as this great happening show, comedy with social, political satire, pop culture commentary with the latest musical acts. But now is the show all that relevant?

Al-x wrote:

I am reading of all these changes to Saturday Night Live how 8 cast members left, 5 new ones, the people that did the small cartoon segments left, etc. Too much of a shakeup. I heard stories about Lorne Michaels and the show.

It always came across as this great happening show, comedy with social, political satire, pop culture commentary with the latest musical acts. But now is the show all that relevant?

Honestly, the changes were quite minimal overall. Yeah, a few long timers left, but there weren’t the whole sale changes people were expecting based on Lorne’s earlier comments. Some of the new hires gained fame from TikTok and other online platforms.

This doesn’t feel like some seismic shift. It feels routine to me.

I think the biggest change is Ego bailing, relatively last minute, which leaves the show without any black female cast members. Now, you can say that’s because Ego’s exit wasn’t expected, but it’s moreso on the show for only having one black female cast member before that. Not a great look from a simple position of demographics/diversity, but also more practically, awkward if they need to do an impression of a black woman for topical sketches. Unfortunately, I think they’ll probably just rely on an alumni coming in.

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Todd

It makes me wonder… which company if they bought WB, would be able to do the DC movies justice?

https://collider.com/netflix-wants-to-buy-warner-bros-discovery-theatrical-experience-impact/

Al-x wrote:

It makes me wonder… which company if they bought WB, would be able to do the DC movies justice?

https://collider.com/netflix-wants-to-buy-warner-bros-discovery-theatrical-experience-impact/

Maybe. I think the current WB bosses are pretty shit and Netflix could do better.

The consolidation though is really bad and it has driven down standards. The fewer companies that own anything the more they can get away with passing off shit. The best example for me is US television in the 1980s, which didn’t have public service requirements, before a large cable challenge could start making any challenge commercially.

We like the nostalgia but there’s an entire decade of a lot of money ploughed in and thousands of shows but it was all crap because that’s all they needed to do.

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Todd, lorcan_nagle

Well so far it’s been Paramount and now Netflix wants to make a move. Some nice WB property and franchises that can be had.

Nice hearing from you again.

Is vocal fry getting worse or not?  I am listening to a Ezra Klein podcast and all speakers have vocal fry.

 

I can’t do it. Sometimes I try speaking with vocal fry but it makes me cough.

Videos I play in my laptop browser from sites like twitter and others give a black screen after a while. I can scroll for a while, but then suddenly a video gives a black screen and all other videos also show a black screen in that browser and on that tab. When I open the site in a new tab, it works again. For a while anyway, until it starts showing black screens again. It also happens on multiple browsers, chrome, brave and edge.

 

I think it must be something in the software, because I assume that if it is hardware the errors would persist. I did switch off hardware acceleration, and re-installed the graphics driver, but that didn’t work.

My God youtube ads are utter brainrot…

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Todd

Arjan Dirkse wrote:

My God youtube ads are utter brainrot…

Here are a couple of videos that go into it:

YouTube is completely unwatchable without an ad blocker these days.

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Todd

lorcan_nagle wrote:

YouTube is completely unwatchable without an ad blocker these days.

Unfortunately, YouTube is getting better at detecting ad blockers and forcing viewers to shut it off, otherwise you won’t be able to watch videos.

Here’s an interesting look at YT and what’s happening with the platform.

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lorcan_nagle

I had to turn my adblocker off because I kept getting errors.

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Todd

Now there is an AI actress signed to a talent agency:

https://variety.com/2025/film/news/sag-aftra-tilly-norwood-ai-actress-1236534779/

 

Heh. Well, it’s a good PR gag for that agency. But this isn’t feasable yet. I mean, look at Tilly’s Homepage and click on the photo of her at her desk:

https://www.tillynorwood.com/

Who wouldn’t want to employ the star of movies such as rfffftto or …ennukae?

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Todd

Emily Blunt when she heard this “Good Lord. We’re screwed”:

https://people.com/tilly-norwood-ai-actress-drawing-controversy-in-hollywood-11821340

There was a Hollywood strike partly about getting paid in the future and not having AI replicate your likeness.

It’s all creepy tbh. I can’t stand pics on social media feeds as it is now.

 

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Todd, njerry, lorcan_nagle

This is all just an attempt to manafacture consent, to make AI feel inevitable and people should just accept it.

When in reality the bottom is falling out of the industry just like it did with NFTs and Crypto and every other tech scam of the last few years, OpenAI have admitted there literally isn’t enough capital in the world to fund the level of expansion they envision they need, on top of demanding free access to all copyrightable material because the amount of nonsense AI output in the public domain is poisoning new generative AI models.  Lionsgate went all-in on using AI to make a movie and discovered they can’t do it.

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Uncle Retrospective, Christian, Todd, Martin Smith

Says a lot that when the film industry created its own fake “star” that it has complete control over they made a teenage white girl.

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lorcan_nagle, Todd

lorcan_nagle wrote:

This is all just an attempt to manafacture consent, to make AI feel inevitable and people should just accept it.

When in reality the bottom is falling out of the industry just like it did with NFTs and Crypto and every other tech scam of the last few years, OpenAI have admitted there literally isn’t enough capital in the world to fund the level of expansion they envision they need, on top of demanding free access to all copyrightable material because the amount of nonsense AI output in the public domain is poisoning new generative AI models.  Lionsgate went all-in on using AI to make a movie and discovered they can’t do it.

There is definitely a bubble that is ready to pop, and it will burst sooner rather than later.

Here are some good videos summing up where things are and where they are going:

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lorcan_nagle

Arjan Dirkse wrote:

Videos I play in my laptop browser from sites like twitter and others give a black screen after a while. I can scroll for a while, but then suddenly a video gives a black screen and all other videos also show a black screen in that browser and on that tab. When I open the site in a new tab, it works again. For a while anyway, until it starts showing black screens again. It also happens on multiple browsers, chrome, brave and edge.

 

I think it must be something in the software, because I assume that if it is hardware the errors would persist. I did switch off hardware acceleration, and re-installed the graphics driver, but that didn’t work.

 

Update on this problem: I downloaded firefox and in firefox I don’t seem to have this problem. I haven’t had any video show up in a black window yet. Apparently firefox has a different system than most other browsers which is called gecko. Maybe this makes the difference.

[Al-x]

Years ago, I always heard that we will all have 500 channels and now we are close. I got the Smart TV with all these free streaming apps like Plex, Pluto, Tubi, etc. But the channels all stream reruns of old TV shows like Bonanza, the Jeffersons, Charmed, McGuyver, The Fall Guy, etc. Ok… but having that many streaming channels isn’t all its cracked up to be.

———-

“to make Al feel inevitable and people should just accept it” … Thanks for the compliment🤣

• This reply was modified 3 days, 3 hours ago by Al-x.

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Todd

Christian wrote:

Heh. Well, it’s a good PR gag for that agency. But this isn’t feasable yet.

Here’s the main issue. It should be noted all the video is AI, not just pretty starlet Tilly but the fat guy and old guy and they are very convincing. It’s technically very impressive but it is also deathly boring and unfunny.

I wanted to show my wife and kids the massive technological advances the video showed and reveal at the end it was all fake but it needed me to ask them to be patient with frankly tedious content to get the end reveal.

This will be the biggest hurdle because AI by its nature cannot innovate, it collates and reassembles existing content. If you inserted this tech into 1964 you’d have 200,000 jangly guitar Buddy Holly/Beatles things but no reprobates in Birmingham would have invented heavy metal or German nerds created electronic sounds.

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Christian, lorcan_nagle

Currently, I have Mary Tamm, the original Timelady Romana de Voratrelundar. While I am on this Dr. Who kick,
I might switch to Lalla Ward (her successor), Janet Fielding (Tegan), or in more recent times Jenna Coleman (Clara).

Always a cute young companion. Indeed, it was for the dads watching the show with the kids.

——

Things have been so downbeat lately. I’d like to reboot the Relationship thread just to have a fun thread here.
So… yay or nay?

Al-x wrote:

Things have been so downbeat lately. I’d like to reboot the Relationship thread just to have a fun thread here.
So… yay or nay?

NAY. That thread never goes well, especially for you.

Besides, there aren’t that many people here to make it really worthwhile.

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Sean Robinson

Yeah. You’re probably right on that. It’s just that things seem so bleak. Could use some fun.

Al-x wrote:

Yeah. You’re probably right on that. It’s just that things seem so bleak. Could use some fun.

Politics and war and all that stuff is traumatizing. It is important of course, so I wouldn’t say pay no attention to it, but a little distraction every now and then is good.

Al-x wrote:

Yeah. You’re probably right on that. It’s just that things seem so bleak. Could use some fun.

If you look back on the Relationship Thread, Al, this last discussion involved one of the members posting about how his girlfriend of six years just told him she wants to break up. Not exactly “fun”.

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Todd

njerry wrote:

Al-x wrote:

Yeah. You’re probably right on that. It’s just that things seem so bleak. Could use some fun.

If you look back on the Relationship Thread, Al, this last discussion involved one of the members posting about how his girlfriend of six years just told him she wants to break up. Not exactly “fun”.

In fairness that is quite young for a girlfriend, probably for the best.

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Christian, njerry, Sean Robinson, Todd

Dave wrote:

njerry wrote:

Al-x wrote:

Yeah. You’re probably right on that. It’s just that things seem so bleak. Could use some fun.

If you look back on the Relationship Thread, Al, this last discussion involved one of the members posting about how his girlfriend of six years just told him she wants to break up. Not exactly “fun”.

In fairness that is quite young for a girlfriend, probably for the best.

This is why you never let Jeffrey Epstein play matchmaker for you.

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Sean Robinson

njerry wrote:

If you look back on the Relationship Thread, Al, this last discussion involved one of the members posting about how his girlfriend of six years just told him she wants to break up. Not exactly “fun”.

True, but I was thinking of the times that thread was fun. Still, Todd’s right: Not enough people here to make it worthwhile.
That ship has sailed.

Still could use a nice fun thread though.

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njerry

It’s rainy in the city, and again I can’t make it to NYCC this year. The Galactus cosplay guy from SDCC is here. I am checking out a few YT vids on it all. Vicarious…

It’s Day 3 already.

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Todd