The Politics Thread

Topic

Talk politics here.

Replies

Todd wrote:

That means you could be voting on literally dozens of candidates and propositions on one single election day. While there are resources available to research who and what you will be voting on, that is still a huge amount of information to process. While some people will perform their due diligence prior to stepping into the voting booth, it should not surprise anyone that people vote straight tickets as a matter of simplicity and convenience.

On the converse of that, it also means that an organized minority collective can essentially take over what people think are functionary positions in a government with very little effort. This has been one of the ways that Christian Conservatives have been so successful in local and state politics to gain greater national influence. It’s kinda like a real life version of the game of Mafia (or Werewolf) which was actually created to demonstrate how an organized “informed” minority can win against the uninformed majority.

Primarily, despite apparent divisions in the extreme conservatives, they are better at coming together and forming leadership outside the elected political system to achieve influence upon it. While in the more left wing and liberal areas, the divisions are real and progressives and moderates will not cooperate because they don’t really agree on the playbook or objectives (or at least the importance of each objective) even inside the same movements. Also, for some surprising reason, liberals and progressive leaders are most often elected or seeking office rather than external, as I mentioned before.

 

The situation of poor whites siding with the GOP also touches on what is known as identity politics. Identity politics is for the most part: a political approach wherein people of a particular gender, religion, race, social background, social class or other identifying factors, develop political agendas that are based upon these identities. So these white pretty much rally around their whiteness. In fact, the whole voter fraud situation is that they only want to count the white votes.

Also in the case of race, it was Trump who was so p*ssed off that Obama went to Harvard Law and became President. Remember Trump’s whole Birther issue, and even questioning how Obama got into Harvard? It is textbook case of resenting people doing better than you who you feel should not be in that position whether they went to a more elite school, a better job, better car etc.On a related note, years ago, a lot of women resented it that Megan Markle scored a royal prince and got that internationally televised royal wedding but I digress…

There is also the study of demographics and forecasting. According to the data of immigration, birth rate, etc. America will be less white in the future and some are scared about the white well being and power structure. Apparently, they don’t want to be the minority and treated accordingly. White supremacist ideology has a coming race war/apocalypse and they are storing arms and are against gun control when it applies to them.

Xenophobia, fear mongering, riots … the future will get ugly. Hold onto your hats.

Al-x wrote:

The situation of poor whites siding with the GOP also touches on what is known as identity politics. Identity politics is for the most part: a political approach wherein people of a particular gender, religion, race, social background, social class or other identifying factors, develop political agendas that are based upon these identities. So these white pretty much rally around their whiteness. In fact, the whole voter fraud situation is that they only want to count the white votes.

This has been in progress for a long time. Christian Conservatives are probably the best example though not necessarily white, they began using the successful political actions of minority groups to push their own agendas. Many white people are now part of a very conservative and right-wing “civil rights” movement where they are actually the largest minority group in the country. So, you end up with a very effective movement whose leaders already have access to most of the wealth, privilege and power.

And attacking them only makes them more unified. Anything like the above-mentioned CRT to the Covid Vaccine Mandates will be used in a way that encourages people to attack them so they can simply recruit more members and support.

garjones wrote:

While representative of nothing, judging by my Twitter feed this morning Boris Johnson is in a whole world of shit right now.

Yep. It could finally be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Like the worlds longest, shittiest game of Buckaroo.

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lorcan_nagle

Dave wrote:

DavidM wrote:

We are scheduled for a General Election in May 2022

You gave me a start then, I thought I’d missed some important news. It’s May 2024!

(Although the rate we’ve been having them over the past five years, 2022 feels more likely.)

Oops. Well if you’re going to make a typo, make sure it’s one that undermines your whole point

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lorcan_nagle, Dave

Dave wrote:

garjones wrote:

While representative of nothing, judging by my Twitter feed this morning Boris Johnson is in a whole world of shit right now.

Yep. It could finally be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Like the worlds longest, shittiest game of Buckaroo.

Has anyone asked what Hitler thinks? It’s bad enough that someone probably has done a new version of the Downfall clip.

garjones wrote:

While representative of nothing, judging by my Twitter feed this morning Boris Johnson is in a whole world of shit right now.

I think the key word there is nothing

Honestly there should be no mercy for politicians who flout their own covid rules. Put them in jail.

 

In Hong Kong, this pro-Beijing politician was crying about the quarantine rules he impoised on others after spending less than 24 hours in quarantine himself.

 

How a birthday party exposed Hong Kong officials to the harsh reality of zero-Covid

Anonymous wrote:

That’s a ticket that would appeal to next to no one. But I guess it the goal is to ensure only Republicans vote, then sure, whatever.

But seriously, Liz Cheney is terrible. I certainly can respect that she’s willing to do the bare minimum in calling out the GOPs lies about Trump and Jan 6, but outside of that she’s pretty awful. And it more just illustrates how far down the rabbit hole her party has fallen. Just because she’s not getting high with a caterpillar down in Wonderland like 98% of her fellow GOP Congress people doesn’t mean she’s not an asshole.

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Todd

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Ben, Todd

Anonymous wrote:

Todd wrote:

That means you could be voting on literally dozens of candidates and propositions on one single election day. While there are resources available to research who and what you will be voting on, that is still a huge amount of information to process. While some people will perform their due diligence prior to stepping into the voting booth, it should not surprise anyone that people vote straight tickets as a matter of simplicity and convenience.

On the converse of that, it also means that an organized minority collective can essentially take over what people think are functionary positions in a government with very little effort. This has been one of the ways that Christian Conservatives have been so successful in local and state politics to gain greater national influence. It’s kinda like a real life version of the game of Mafia (or Werewolf) which was actually created to demonstrate how an organized “informed” minority can win against the uninformed majority.

Primarily, despite apparent divisions in the extreme conservatives, they are better at coming together and forming leadership outside the elected political system to achieve influence upon it. While in the more left wing and liberal areas, the divisions are real and progressives and moderates will not cooperate because they don’t really agree on the playbook or objectives (or at least the importance of each objective) even inside the same movements. Also, for some surprising reason, liberals and progressive leaders are most often elected or seeking office rather than external, as I mentioned before.

 

In the city I work for, it’s been interesting watching the fighting between OG Republicans and Trump Republicans on our city council. The city is fairly conservative. The voting goes 4-3 in favor of OG.

We had a recent election and it was OG vs Trump Republicans. The outcome was in favor of the OG, but it was very close. It’s my understanding the Trumpers expected easy wins. They lost but the results were very close. Neither side can claim a clear mandate.

I just saw this:

As candidates refuse to disavow McConnell, Trump comes to terms with his grip on GOP

There are serious divisions in the GOP, and Trump is doing everything he can to fuel that divide.

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lorcan_nagle

[Al-x]

The filibuster:

In simple terms: “The Senate tradition of unlimited debate has allowed for the use of the filibuster, a loosely defined term for action designed to prolong debate and delay or prevent a vote on a bill, resolution, amendment, or other debatable question.”

“In the United States Senate, a filibuster is a tactic employed by opponents of a proposed law to prevent the measure’s final passage. … Thus, the minority could extend debate on a bill indefinitely by holding the floor of the Senate, preventing the bill from coming to a vote.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster

Recently the Senator Sinema said she was against ending it, even though it can and most likely will be used against Biden getting his things done, especially the voting rights act.

By blocking voting reform today, Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are the White moderates Dr. King warned us about.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/15/opinions/mlk-white-moderates-voting-rights-filibuster-ray/index.html

Also from CNN, it was used to block Obama from filling the SCOTUS and then changed in Trumps favor when he put in his candidate:

The Senate already uses a simple majority to end debate in a few specific cases. In 2013, after Republicans blocked votes for several of President Barack Obama’s nominees, Senate Democrats, led by then-Majority Leader Harry Reid, set a precedent to require only a simple majority of those voting to invoke cloture on all presidential nominations, except those for the Supreme Court. The rules were changed again during the Trump administration to apply to Supreme Court nominees as well after Democrats attempted a filibuster to prevent a vote on President Donald Trump’s first Supreme Court nominee, Neil Gorsuch.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/13/politics/manchin-filibuster-fact-check/index.html

Again, it makes me wonder if Hilary was there instead of…. , would the Dems have 3 of their judges in now?

It is a mess… Can’t wait until the November midterms.

• This reply was modified 3 years, 1 month ago by Al-x.

Oh no!

 

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DavidM, Dave, garjones, Todd

I’m actually torn with those kinds of articles now whether they really are that out of touch or the journalists are doing it for hate clicks.

There was a hilarious one a couple of years back where a couple were explaining how to save a million before reaching 40 and retire. In the second paragraph they inherited a house and rented it out for 2000 pounds a month. Ah so that’s what I did wrong, not inheriting.

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DavidM, njerry, lorcan_nagle, Ben, Todd, Christian

Some more Keppler from The Daily Show:

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Todd

garjones wrote:

I’m actually torn with those kinds of articles now whether they really are that out of touch or the journalists are doing it for hate clicks.

There was a hilarious one a couple of years back where a couple were explaining how to save a million before reaching 40 and retire. In the second paragraph they inherited a house and rented it out for 2000 pounds a month. Ah so that’s what I did wrong, not inheriting.

How did Donald Trump make his first million dollars?

His dad gave him a billion dollars.

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Ben, lorcan_nagle

There was one of those hate-clicks pieces being pushed in the trending topics of Twitter the other day.

“This 10 year old owns two multi-million dollar companies and can retire at 15!”

Turns out she’s the daughter of an Australian businesswoman who has various other ventures and basically set up a couple with her daughter named as director or something (admittedly off her kid’s ideas). Which actually just sounds like a massive tax dodge to me. The kid’s father was previously jailed for insider trading too, so I’m sure it’s all totally above aboard.

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Todd, Ben, njerry, lorcan_nagle

Most people can only see things through their own perspective, not through other peoples’ eyes. I’m guilty of it — I always wonder why a person would be out driving in a major snowstorm with their children in the car and end up getting stuck for over 24 hours due to a multi-vehicle crash caused by the weather (which just happened a week or so ago along I-95 in Virginia). Well, maybe that person is a single mom whose job doesn’t pay for sick or personal days off so she can’t afford NOT to go to work that day, but her kids’ school and the daycare center are closed due to the storm, and she doesn’t want to leave her kids alone at home all day, so she’s trying to get them to a relative’s house for safety. Whereas I only see things from my own POV as someone who can to take the day off and work from.

I think politicians and wealthy people in general have forgotten (if they ever knew) what middle-class and poor families have to deal with in this current society. I can remember, when my first child was born, having to live paycheck-to-paycheck as my wife stayed home to raise the baby, and that experience has stuck with me 35 years later. Thankfully I’m at a point in my life now where, if my car won’t start, I don’t have to make a conscious choice between getting it repaired and paying this month’s rent or buying groceries for the week; but I know there are many people out there (including people in my own family) who struggle with those choices on a regular basis.

That’s why I think the future of this nation, in particular, should be with people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other so-called progressives who have personal experience with economic struggles as well as with sexism and racism, and who want to improve the lot of the poor and disenfranchised; as opposed to career politicians who are focused on keeping their corporate donors happy.

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Andy, Rocket, DavidM, Christian, Todd, Dave, Ben, lorcan_nagle

Meanwhile, in Tory HQ: We’re in deep shit, who”s got a dead cat or three? Wait, say that again? Excellent idea – PRIVATISE THE BBC!

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Todd, Dave, lorcan_nagle

njerry wrote:

That’s why I think the future of this nation, in particular, should be with people like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other so-called progressives who have personal experience with economic struggles as well as with sexism and racism, and who want to improve the lot of the poor and disenfranchised; as opposed to career politicians who are focused on keeping their corporate donors happy.

At the same time, in 20 years, those politicians will have been so divorced from the middle class and poor experience, the next generation will be making the same complaints against them that they are against Pelosi and Biden today. Again, the place to look for leaders are outside political office.

garjones wrote:

I’m actually torn with those kinds of articles now whether they really are that out of touch or the journalists are doing it for hate clicks.

There was a hilarious one a couple of years back where a couple were explaining how to save a million before reaching 40 and retire. In the second paragraph they inherited a house and rented it out for 2000 pounds a month. Ah so that’s what I did wrong, not inheriting.

Yeah, I’ve seen similar here about millennials who are millionaires by 30. Inevitably they all are basically given great jobs and/or houses by their parents and basically have had minimal expenses because of it.

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Todd, lorcan_nagle

Because we’re apparently not allowed to forget that Donald Trump is a thing:

Trump claims white people are discriminated against for COVID-19 treatment: ‘If you’re white you go right to the back of the line’

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Todd, lorcan_nagle

Ok…

The apparent narrative of the Dems and GOP is the good guys vs. the bad guys/racists/ignorant etc…

It seems that you are to vote Dem because voting GOP (especially the midterms and two years from now with you know who) will bring him back in office.

There really should be more to that.

It’s been said to look into more local elections and vote for a stronger local government in your area. Most take it that the crucial one is the POTUS and that’s it. As for the Dems, make no mistake that it was really Stacy Abrams grassroots door to door stuff that brought in the black woman vote to flip that state at the time in Biden’s favor, the Senate etc.

Yet, while it is understandable about handling the pandemic, the infrastructure bill, and so on, there still is a feeling that the Dems are losing ground. They need to score a big goal in the eyes of voters. Maybe a student debt relief will be something the young voters will keep in mind. And not taking for granted the minority vote that helped get the Dems there, do right by them.

It is a mess… Hold on to your hats.

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JRCarter

Johnson’s blatant ruse has been rumbled!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/16/boris-johnson-accused-of-targeting-bbc-to-save-his-premiership

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Todd, lorcan_nagle

The BBC funding cut, which could fundamentally change the corporation as it enters its centenary year, appears to be a central theme of Johnson’s fightback strategy, which is reportedly called Operation Red Meat.

Christ, that ridiculous little motherfucker.

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Dave, Todd, lorcan_nagle, Ben

Don’t forget its evil twin Operation: Save Big Dog.

i.e. Everyone other than Johnson is to blame for the parties.

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Christian, Todd, lorcan_nagle

Anonymous wrote:

At the same time, in 20 years, those politicians will have been so divorced from the middle class and poor experience, the next generation will be making the same complaints against them that they are against Pelosi and Biden today. Again, the place to look for leaders are outside political office.

The simple solution to that is two words: Term Limits.

It works for the office of the President as well as various Gubernatorial and Mayoral elections; but it needs to be applied to races for the Senate and the House of Representatives, so we can dislodge Pelosi and McConnell from their seats and eliminate their near-eternal lock on power/position in Federal government.

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Andy, Todd

njerry wrote:

The simple solution to that is two words: Term Limits. It works for the office of the President as well as various Gubernatorial and Mayoral elections; but it needs to be applied to races for the Senate and the House of Representatives, so we can dislodge Pelosi and McConnell from their seats and eliminate their near-eternal lock on power/position in Federal government.

Be careful what you wish for. I’m not saying that the complaints against these long-lived politicians are valid, but that the nice shiny politicians who seem to represent progress today either won’t last and if they do, they will become like Pelosi and Biden – people who’ve been in politics this long because they are survivors.

It’s not necessarily the case that they have a lock on power, but power has a lock on them. They are tied in, invested and as a result committed to the position. The demands of that position won’t necessarily change with a new person sitting in the office – especially if people know they just have to wait a few years and deal with someone completely new. On top of that, the person that will take their place will be in a far more vulnerable position since they will not have the decades of connections and influence – that will leave the office with them.

It will always be the leaders outside elected office that can make change happen – activists, organizers, as their power is entirely based on the people they can influence – and I don’t see those leaders emerging in the progressive world the way that the ultra-conservatives have on the right behind Trump. We need figures today fighting these fights like Martin Luther King, Jr., Whitney Young, Roy Wilkins, Abby Hoffman and even Jimmy Hoffa did for labor and civil rights and anti-war action in the 60’s. People who are not in office and who are not seeking elected office but can motivate and mobilize voters and activists on a national scale so that the government is forced to act no matter which party controls Washington or the State governments.

Anonymous wrote:

Oh no!

 

Yeah, I wish them good luck with that. Their 10k au pair would have to come from Poland or Romania, and we don’t allow that any more.

 

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Rocket, Todd

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/jan/17/covid-news-live-new-zealand-begins-vaccinating-children-aged-5-11-french-parliament-approves-vaccine-pass

Imposing fines on people for not vaccinating is some classist shit. I’m not defending the unvaccinated, I’m saying fines is an inherently classist punishment.

Send them to jail instead.

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lorcan_nagle

It is similar to the idea of taxing cigarettes (or anything) to affect social behavior. It works but it also ends up leaning the burden heavily on poorer people.

Obviously, incarceration is also one of the major social tools for class divisions. A carjacker can get a 25 year sentence for stealing a car and people will go nuts when he gets out in five years while an inside trader will get a 10 year sentence, maybe, and be out in two. Even then, the prisons each person get sent will be quite different experiences.

And, of course, the irony is that if you get sent to prison or jail, you can be forced to take medical treatments, and it would be a bad idea to isolate all the unvaccinated people together in an epidemic so they’d likely be forced to get vaccinated anyway… and then fined and released.

 

This gave me a chuckle.

pic.twitter.com/0m2zjzZXL2

— Jed Mercurio (@jed_mercurio) January 18, 2022

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njerry

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njerry, Ben

The Tory MP for Bury South has crossed the floor to sit on the Labour benches.

I’m not a fan of party switching but it is very dramatic when it’s done like that, gasps from one side, applause from the other.

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DavidM

Yeah, it’s the ultimate politics as theatre move, isn’t it (now they’re not allowed swords and suchlike in the chamber)?

Says a lot about Starmer’s Labour party that a Tory joined them rather than the Lib Dems though.

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DavidM, lorcan_nagle

Martin Smith wrote:

Says a lot about Starmer’s Labour party that a Tory joined them rather than the Lib Dems though.

Maybe he just didn’t know what any of the Lib Dems look like.

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Martin Smith, lorcan_nagle, DavidM

Anyway for me the funniest moment of the day so far has been David Davis telling Johnson to fuck off.

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garjones, Todd, lorcan_nagle, DavidM

That tweet aged well.

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garjones, Todd, Dave, lorcan_nagle

Martin Smith wrote:

Says a lot about Starmer’s Labour party that a Tory joined them rather than the Lib Dems though.

I think it probably says more about how ‘red wall’ voters view the Lib Dems. Lib Dems are generally only competitive in rural or affluent middle class seats, not post industrial ones. With a majority of only 400 and an expected 2 years of high fuel bills and inflation is he’s self serving that’s his best hope of keeping that seat.

A week’s a long time and all that but with Brexit now ‘done’ and ‘levelling up’ highly unlikely to show realistic change my guess is like Trump between 2016 and 2020 a chunk of those ‘converts’ will return back to type. It’s hard to see how they gain on what they had, if Sunak takes over his instincts are back to austerity.

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DavidM, Todd, Dave, lorcan_nagle

Frickin’ Florida, man:

Florida Could Shield Whites From ‘Discomfort’ of Racist Past

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Rocket, Ben, lorcan_nagle, Todd

AMEN!!!!

£900k of money down the drain:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/20/research-into-johnsons-planned-irish-sea-bridge-cost-taxpayers-900000

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lorcan_nagle, Todd

Bitch McConnell strikes again:

Mitch McConnell says Black people vote just as much as ‘Americans’

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Rocket, njerry, lorcan_nagle, Todd

JRCarter wrote:

Bitch McConnell strikes again:

When I heard that I could not believe someone could think so segregated in this time and age. Him, Tr**P, and their followers really want to return to the 50s. It would be nice if they would be shown what it truly would be like if they went back there(no TVs, no computers, No flights, Edsels and Studebakers,…)

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Todd, JRCarter

Rocket wrote:

Tr**P

Dorito Mangolini

JRCarter wrote:

Mitch McConnell says Black people vote just as much as ‘Americans’

Reminds me of when reporters (or news readers really) would constantly say that Justice Sotomayor’s parents “immigrated” to the United States from Puerto Rico.

 

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Todd, JRCarter

The stuff with Ukraine feels really ominous. I wonder if Putin is crazy enough to just do a full on invasion. I kinda think no, he would have done it already rather than waiting at the border for weeks.

Seems like he’s just trying to make a show to distract attention from something else. Is there some big domestic problem he needs to stop Russians noticing?

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Well I think his whole presidency depends on making Russia appear defiant towards Western encroachment (imagined or real). I think he wants some kind of concession from NATO that they’re not looking to make Ukraine and Georgia members so that he can show that to the Russians as a sign of his “strength”.

Time to find out how Boris Johnson can spin his own birthday party as a ‘work event’.

EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson had a birthday party during lockdown in June 2020 despite rules forbidding social gatherings indoors, ITV News has learnt.

Up to 30 staff celebrated in the cabinet room where Carrie Johnson surprised him with a cake, we're told.https://t.co/2IEwZpjHR7

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) January 24, 2022

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Todd, lorcan_nagle

Anonymous wrote:

JRCarter wrote:

Mitch McConnell says Black people vote just as much as ‘Americans’

Reminds me of when reporters (or news readers really) would constantly say that Justice Sotomayor’s parents “immigrated” to the United States from Puerto Rico.

A Freudian slip?

In the MW days, we had a member who was a right winger (not mentioning names) who said once about some GOP court victory “This is a victory for true Americans.” The forum railed against him, but that is basically the mindset: Only whites are real Americans, the people of color (black, Hispanic, Indian, Native American, even the “model minority” Asians) are not, but they can be tolerated as long as they stay in their place.

Dave wrote:

Time to find out how Boris Johnson can spin his own birthday party as a ‘work event’.

EXCLUSIVE: Boris Johnson had a birthday party during lockdown in June 2020 despite rules forbidding social gatherings indoors, ITV News has learnt.

Up to 30 staff celebrated in the cabinet room where Carrie Johnson surprised him with a cake, we're told.https://t.co/2IEwZpjHR7

— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) January 24, 2022

It was a very, very positive and celebratory performance review due to Boris Johnson’s performance as Prime Minister being greatly praised by Boris Johnson.

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Todd, lorcan_nagle

I’m half-expecting Johnson to claim at PMQs that everyone in Number 10 was singing happy birthday because they were all washing their hands at exactly the same time.

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Martin Smith, Todd, lorcan_nagle

Deep in 10 Downing Street:

Now don’t panic chaps, being investigated by the Police is good!

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lorcan_nagle, Dave

It probably is good for them. The Gray report “can’t” be published until the police investigation is complete.

Interestingly, the Met say they didn’t object to the report being published first, it was the government who decided not to publish it. The government’s reason for that remains unclear

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Ben, Todd, lorcan_nagle

DavidM wrote:

unclear

citation really fucking big quotation marks needed

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Todd, DavidM, lorcan_nagle

DavidM wrote:

It probably is good for them. The Gray report “can’t” be published until the police investigation is complete.

Interestingly, the Met say they didn’t object to the report being published first, it was the government who decided not to publish it. The government’s reason for that remains unclear

It’s a Gray area

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Rocket, njerry, Todd, DavidM

STOP PRESS: The government has now noticed that people aren’t being fooled by their withholding the report “at the request of the police”, so they’re going to release it after all. Because that’s what they wanted to do all along, clearly, and–OH DAMN THE DOG JUST ATE THE REPORT.

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lorcan_nagle, Todd

DavidM wrote:

STOP PRESS: The government has now noticed that people aren’t being fooled by their withholding the report “at the request of the police”, so they’re going to release it after all. Because that’s what they wanted to do all along, clearly, and–OH DAMN THE DOG JUST ATE THE REPORT.

One of the Queen’s corgis, no doubt.

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lorcan_nagle

I suspect we’ve reached a point it doesn’t really matter. Apparently Johnson has some ambition where he’ll be PM for 10 years. There’s zero chance that will happen because he’s too lazy and selfish. It’ll always catch up with you.

He can defer and distract from this enquiry but I’d bet a house he’s fucked.

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lorcan_nagle, Todd

garjones wrote:

He can defer and distract from this enquiry but I’d bet a house he’s fucked.

Am tempted to take the bet but I’m pretty sure you know I don’t own a house to counteroffer so…

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lorcan_nagle, Todd

The latest defence, yes, this is real:

https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1486065594902454277

“He was ambushed by a cake”

WHAT THE FUCK IS GOING ON?

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DavidM, lorcan_nagle, Todd

Ben wrote:

“He was ambushed by a cake”

That happened to the king of sweden once.

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DavidM, lorcan_nagle, Todd

Ben wrote:

The latest defence, yes, this is real:

https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1486065594902454277

“He was ambushed by a cake”

WHAT THE FUCK IS GOING ON?

I suspect Steve Aoki may have been involved:

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lorcan_nagle

It really is a terrible affliction Boris Johnson has. Everywhere he goes just spontaneously breaks out into a party, no matter what he does. He’s like a human Spuds Mackenzie. Still, at least we know why he hid in that fridge for so long.

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Todd, lorcan_nagle

Keir Starmer should just turn up at PMQs tomorrow with a massive cake.

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Todd, Ben, lorcan_nagle

If I'd not seen it in films so much the "ambushed by a cake" thing would be ridiculous. pic.twitter.com/VQXZkxISqw

— Matthew Highton (@MattHighton) January 25, 2022

Dave wrote:

Keir Starmer should just turn up at PMQs tomorrow with a massive cake.

Like this one?

The Downing Street staff clearly put a lot of thought into my surprise birthday cake. #ambushedwithacake pic.twitter.com/mw2Pnn89X3

— Parody Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson_MP) January 25, 2022

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Todd

Anonymous wrote:

Am tempted to take the bet but I’m pretty sure you know I don’t own a house to counteroffer so…

You can bet a week’s rent then. 😂

My statement isn’t really that optimistic or idealist. It’s knowing that Tory MPs will happily kick out any leader, even the adored Margaret Thatcher, to save their own seats. It’s hard to see a scenario where Johnson regains his initial popularity, his main thrust is to promise the earth with unending positive statements but basically delivering on none of them.

He’s sold this ‘levelling up’ idea that is meant to address the stark economic disparity between the south east of England and most of the rest of the UK but there’s no substance and hard policy behind any of it. The BBC has actually done more independently by shifting large parts of its workforce to places like Salford and Cardiff.

The sad news is that the only method I can see of retaining some of those ‘red wall’ votes without levelling up is probably more culture wars rhetoric.

 

 

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Ben

garjones wrote:

You can bet a week’s rent then. 😂

Which currently amounts to same as the value of all the houses I own.

I definitely see your point though, I’m just, on principle, not very optimistic about successful oustings of any incompetent and or corrupt political leader until it’s happened. I didn’t actually believe Biden was going to be the president of USistan until after he was sworn i, if you remember.

Trump is slightly different I think in that he wasn’t/isn’t seen as quite such a liability with his own voter base.

It’s maybe a distinction that isn’t that clear internationally, but what is motivating the current moves against Johnson is that the Tories are mainly looking at how damaging it is to the conservatives for Johnson to remain as party leader, rather than caring about whether he’s a good prime minister or not (he never has been).

The only mechanism that can realistically force him to step down in the short term (ie. ahead of another general election) is the one that allows the conservative party to demonstrate no confidence in their party leader and pick another instead.

From the Tory perspective, they really only care about whether he can lead them to another election victory in the long-term (which is becoming less likely), and in the short-term how badly he will damage the tory brand by remaining in position (which is increasingly the case).

The fact that he is Prime Minister and a Tory no-confidence vote would also result in a change to the country’s leader is almost incidental.

It’s just the same as it was with all the Brexit stuff: the decisions are motivated far more by what they mean for the Tory party than what they mean for the country.

So as soon as they’re sure that Johnson has become an active liability for them – that the risks of keeping him around outweigh the benefits he brings – he’ll be out.

And we’ll likely see for the second time in a row a new prime minister named based exclusively on the votes of conservative party members.

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Todd, Ben

It’s quite amazing really, how often a prime minister has actually been ousted by an election loss compared to party machinations.

In my lifetime, coming up to 49 years, I think it may be 4. Heath narrowly lost in 1974 when I was 1.  Callaghan lost an election to Thatcher, Major lost an election to Blair. Brown (barely – a coalition was needed) lost an election to Cameron.

If we’re looking for an overwhelming rejection at the ballot box rather than hung parliaments then only Major and Callaghan were decisively rejected (or the other way – Thatcher and Blair endorsed). Callaghan, Major, Brown, May and Johnson were all elevated to the post without a public vote. I suspect we will have another name to add to that soon.

That is the parliamentary system, we vote for a local candidate and a party and not a Prime Minister directly which is why Johnson’s position is weaker than Trump’s was. He’ll be replaced by another arsehole, that much is guaranteed. Truss and Sunak are free market evangelists which for my politics makes them more harmful than someone inspired primarily by their own vanity.

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DavidM, Ben, Dave

garjones wrote:

He’ll be replaced by another arsehole

I was wondering about that…the alternatives probably are not great. I think Priti Patel is also a raving authoritarian from some things I’ve read about her. UK politics seems really bad at the moment.

garjones wrote:

That is the parliamentary system, we vote for a local candidate and a party and not a Prime Minister directly which is why Johnson’s position is weaker than Trump’s was.

Yes, and I thought it was rather amusing that (as part of his attempt to defend Johnson by scaring the tories about the possible outcome of a no-confidence vote) Rees-Mogg was arguing this week that the UK was now “essentially” operating under a presidential system, and so any new leader would be morally obliged to immediately call a general election to gain the endorsement of the public.

It isn’t, and they wouldn’t, and there’s shitloads of precedent to demonstrate that – not least the way in which Johnson himself came to power.

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Ben

Anonymous wrote:

raving authoritarian

You can just say Tory

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Andy, Todd, Ben

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Todd, Dave, lorcan_nagle

Dave wrote:

Rees-Mogg was arguing this week that the UK was now “essentially” operating under a presidential system, and so any new leader would be morally obliged to immediately call a general election to gain the endorsement of the public. It isn’t, and they wouldn’t

And Rees-Mogg will immediately say it isn’t and they wouldn’t as soon as the new leader (who he approves of) is in place.

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lorcan_nagle, Dave

Is there a weird kind of “wag the dog” scenario going on with Russia? Both Biden and Johnson are in trouble and it seems it is the two of them that are hyping up the war threat.

 

I honestly lean towards the opinion lately that Europe should try to cut itself lose from the US and the UK and just cut a deal with Russia. Leave Ukraine and Georgia out of NATO. How likely is that though?

That’s not a “europe” decision to make. If Ukraine and Georgia wants to join NATO, that’s their deal. Not “europes”.

Anonymous wrote:

Both Biden and Johnson are in trouble and it seems it is the two of them that are hyping up the war threat.

Stop watching FOX news.

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lorcan_nagle

Anonymous wrote:

I think Priti Patel is also a raving authoritarian from some things I’ve read about her. UK politics seems really bad at the moment.

She seems out of the running, she’s had a couple of past scandals and I don’t think is easy for the public to warm to.

The favourites among the pundits are Liz Truss the Foreign Secretary and Rishi Sunak the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Anonymous wrote:

That’s not a “europe” decision to make. If Ukraine and Georgia wants to join NATO, that’s their deal. Not “europes”.

Current NATO members have to agree to let in new members. So that includes European countries.

Anonymous wrote:

Is there a weird kind of “wag the dog” scenario going on with Russia? Both Biden and Johnson are in trouble and it seems it is the two of them that are hyping up the war threat.

 

I honestly lean towards the opinion lately that Europe should try to cut itself lose from the US and the UK and just cut a deal with Russia. Leave Ukraine and Georgia out of NATO. How likely is that though?

So you’re basically advocating appeasement.

That has worked so well in the past…

Cool, well then we go to war with Russia. That has also worked welll for whoever did it. (And that was without nukes.)

Anonymous wrote:

So that includes European countries.

SOME European countries.

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Todd, lorcan_nagle

NATO is not just protecting countries from other bad countries. It’s kind of an imperial project. And I think Russia just can’t accept Ukraine with Western military bases. It would be like Canada inviting in the Chinese to build military bases on the US Canada border.

 

I think it also binds Ukraine to a Western economic agenda, especially if EU membership is to follow. That could all hurt Russia.

To be fair I think the ‘appeasement’ argument is overdone. It’s thrown out there because of Chamberlain’s failure with his treaty with Hitler but it didn’t hugely change much, Britain was re-arming and not ready to fight and agreed a side deal with Poland that any sign of aggression and they’d defend them, which is what happened. There are other dumb decisions in the lead up to that war like Poland refusing an agreement for the USSR to defend them because they didn’t like them.

The image of him waving the useless agreement holds a lot of sway as a humiliating moment but FDR appeased longer and more foolishly and escapes criticism because there was no photo opp.

In truth western powers have used appeasement to varying degrees and varying success before and since.

I don’t see a huge chunk of change between Obama offering to release cash for Iran to stop developing nuclear weapons and Putin saying don’t invite these countries to NATO and we’ll back off.

There’s a degree to which the US rather set this up, with the fall of the Soviet union they waltzed in with this far right model of free markets and flat taxes and it fucked the country right up because none of that actually works outside an Ayn Rand fantasy. Russians felt humiliated and listening to some analysis from a Russia based correspondent of the BBC today the feeling there is nobody is actually expecting war, it is a personal obsession of Putin to regain a level of respect.

Who knows but maybe giving him his ‘face’ to no real detriment to any of us may not be the worst idea, Ukraine is not vital to Nato either it is more a show of influence as much as anything. You can always mark another line in the sand as Chamberlain did and say this is my ‘fool me once’ line if the military build up isn’t reduced.

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Ben, lorcan_nagle

garjones wrote:

it is a personal obsession of Putin to regain a level of respect.

I think his presidency depends on that, if Russia sees him as a weakling in regards to NATO he is toast. So he does this saber rattling to look stronk.

Biden: Ready for ‘long overdue’ pick of Black female justice

Now I’m wondering, between Tucker Carlson and Joe Rogan, who’ll say something venomously ignorant first.

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lorcan_nagle, Todd

JRCarter wrote:

Now I’m wondering, between Tucker Carlson and Joe Rogan, who’ll say something venomously ignorant first.

I’m not going to look on his twitter, but I’m willing to bet Jordan Peterson has beat them to it.

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JRCarter, lorcan_nagle, Todd

garjones wrote:

The favourites among the pundits are Liz Truss the Foreign Secretary and Rishi Sunak the Chancellor of the Exchequer.

Fuck me, that sums up the state of the country, doesn’t it? Liz bloody Truss seriously considered a contender to be the next Prime Minister.

I still think Jeremy Hunt will make a comeback if there is a leadership election.

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Dave, lorcan_nagle

Todd wrote:

So you’re basically advocating appeasement. That has worked so well in the past…

Honestly, even I have to admit that appeasement actually has worked pretty well in the past. Everyone points to the famous case where “appeasement” is most well known, but the reason all of us are alive and the world isn’t covered with a layer of radioactive ash is that the US and USSR and China constantly appeased each other to avoid war. Diplomacy is not the “art of the possible” so much as the art of knowing when to cave in.

Works a helluva lot better than sanctions have… of course, we can always go to war anyway if we really, really want to. I mean, I’m not going to be fighting and it’s thousands of miles away.

The fear for me is that the Ukraine is much more of a problem for the Russian Federation and government than it is for Western Europe or the United States. So, goading Putin into a costly, unpopular conflict again would hurt them more than us, so I can see our governments really wanting something bad to go down over there.

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Todd, garjones, lorcan_nagle

Anonymous wrote:

Todd wrote:

So you’re basically advocating appeasement. That has worked so well in the past…

Honestly, even I have to admit that appeasement actually has worked pretty well in the past. Everyone points to the famous case where “appeasement” is most well known, but the reason all of us are alive and the world isn’t covered with a layer of radioactive ash is that the US and USSR and China constantly appeased each other to avoid war. Diplomacy is not the “art of the possible” so much as the art of knowing when to cave in.

Works a helluva lot better than sanctions have… of course, we can always go to war anyway if we really, really want to. I mean, I’m not going to be fighting and it’s thousands of miles away.

The fear for me is that the Ukraine is much more of a problem for the Russian Federation and government than it is for Western Europe or the United States. So, goading Putin into a costly, unpopular conflict again would hurt them more than us, so I can see our governments really wanting something bad to go down over there.

I really have no faith in any country involved right now. The US sucks, Western Europe sucks. And Russia is plain evil. Ukraine is just weird, the current president is a comedian who played the president in a movie in 2015. And Darth Vader ran in their elections.

 

Servant of the People – Wikipedia

Yeah, the Ukraine political scene is a mess but whose isn’t these days?

obviously though, it’s not the governments, it’s the people too. We’re all responsible for our government.

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Todd, DavidM, garjones

Anonymous wrote:

Yeah, the Ukraine political scene is a mess but whose isn’t these days?

I wouldn’t say it is a “mess” over here, our leaders are just boring soulless neolibs. They’re somewhat competent as politicians, but otherwise without any original ideas.

Thinking about it I think I have some grudging respect for out PM Rutte, he does have some kind of moral core and code.

Anonymous wrote:

I wouldn’t say it is a “mess” over here,

Yeah, but I’m talking about real countries. You know, the ones that matter. Not those Disneyland show pieces like the Netherlands or Sweden.

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Todd

Hey! Sweden is more like legoland. Nordic unity!

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Todd

Anonymous wrote:

Hey! Sweden is more like legoland. Nordic unity!

And like LEGO, when you step on it, it will cause much pain.

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