Time for a new politics thread. Guessing it’ll be fairly quiet given the calm and measured state of world politics today.
Politics: dead cats and red hats
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Trump has lost his tiny, Adderall-ravaged mind on Twitter. Even by his standards, it’s a sight to behold.
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Well Arizona’s been called, so technically he just needs to hold on to WI & NV… it’d be great if GA flipped, just to solidify it… also, just in case nevada goes tits up…
AZ still hasn’t been called by all outlets. There is a chance Trump could make up the defecit based on the outstanding ballots. Some outlets are being cautious for that reason. Should know more on that possibility later tonight. Might not be likely but there’s enough of a chance that some places are refusing to call it.
Won’t have any updates on NV until tomorrow morning, but it’s expected that the outstanding ballots will favor Biden.
GA is still in play, but everything will have to go just right for Biden to make up the difference.
As an FYI, next numbers updates from GA and AZ are expected around 9pm ET
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Another Republican calling the Not-So-Great Pumpkin on his crap:
Tom Ridge calls Trump’s attempt to falsely claim victory ‘un-American’
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Well Arizona’s been called
Whichever source you’re watching is calling it prematurely; they are still waiting for the vote count in Maricopa County which includes the city of Phoenix. May not be decided until tomorrow.
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Another Republican calling the Not-So-Great Pumpkin on his crap:
Tom Ridge calls Trump’s attempt to falsely claim victory ‘un-American’
If he wins watch every last one of these spineless shitbags fall back in line.
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I also have to add that the 60M or so that voted for him apparently don’t mind the white supremacists, the kids in cages, the pettiness on Twitter, the dirty old man act with young women, the porn star affair, and on and on…
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No matter who wins, Trump’s stench will linger.
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Well Arizona’s been called
Whichever source you’re watching is calling it prematurely; they are still waiting for the vote count in Maricopa County which includes the city of Phoenix. May not be decided until tomorrow.
It’s the one most people are using, the AP one…
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AP did call it and I think regret it now. Some are using Reuters which didn’t call Arizona so the numbers don’t match.
These last few states crawling along is quite torturous.
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Yes, the convention of “calling” states prematurely is starting to look a bit silly when the vote is this close. I don’t know why they choose to do it at all and don’t just wait for the full vote.
(It reminds me of the Box Office thread after an opening Friday total.)
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Yes, the convention of “calling” states prematurely is starting to look a bit silly when the vote is this close. I don’t know why they choose to do it at all and don’t just wait for the full vote.
The commodification of politics. It’s exciting and keeps people glued to CNN and Fox and then they can sell more ad space.
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Yes, exactly that. It’s trying to get an edge on coverage by saying that something has happened before it has.
Ironically these are often the same organisations that are pointedly criticising Trump for making false claims about how the vote is going in certain states.
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I also have to add that the 60M or so that voted for him apparently don’t mind the white supremacists, the kids in cages, the pettiness on Twitter, the dirty old man act with young women, the porn star affair, and on and on…
I think to some extent it shows how irrelevant the candidate himself is. There is a large proportion of the voter base who will vote Republican or will vote Democrat no matter what.
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AP did call it and I think regret it now. Some are using Reuters which didn’t call Arizona so the numbers don’t match.
These last few states crawling along is quite torturous.
https://apnews.com/article/ap-explains-arizona-joe-biden-bb16f91b04456b2513f40436248eb62d
I’m not seeing any retractions or coments of regret, which they could do… And both sites have the same numbers btw. Also, even Fox News called it, so yeah =/
Anyways, the AP’s called both Michigan and Wisconsin, so only Nevada to go… Georgia could flip as well… I think PA is a lost cause, hell, NC has better odds of flipping.
Regardless, Jerry and Gar are correct, they called Arizona prematurely.
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I’m not seeing any retractions or coments of regret, which they could do… And both sites have the same numbers btw. Also, even Fox News called it, so yeah =/
Both sites you are checking but CNN haven’t called it. The BBC using Reuters are not calling Wisconsin either.
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Regardless, Jerry and Gar are correct, they called Arizona prematurely.
Not to overly contest this point, but isn’t every “call” premature by nature? I mean, that’s the whole point of “calling” a state. The AP gave a very sound reason, which I assume is how they always call these things. But hey, if they fucked up, then they fucked up… whatever…
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Not to overly contest this point, but isn’t every “call” premature by nature? I mean, that’s the whole point of “calling” a state.
There are situations where it is obviously possible to be sure of a result before the count has finished, because it is mathematically impossible for the losing candidate to catch up. In that sense a state can be accurately called before the count is over.
That wasn’t the case here, which makes the call premature.
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That’s literally what they explain in the article I posted above…
And you said you assumed that’s how they always called things. But I’m saying I don’t think that was the case here. They “called” Arizona prematurely, even if they ended up predicting the correct outcome.
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Well then let’s hope they didn’t fuck it up, or that Biden flips one of the remaining three to offset that potential fuck up… =P
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Fingers crossed.
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The Guardian has published this explainer on the subject of calling states today.
Feels like they’ve been caught out a bit on this. I wonder if we’ll see changes and a wait for greater certainty in future.
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Some people say it shouldn’t be this close given all the pettiness, lies, etc by Trump the last 4 years but the Trump backlash never came.
There never was a landslide for Biden…About 68M who voted for Trump just don’t mind what he does.
The US isn’t as noble as some think it is.
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Yeah and the truth is, there are still some people who are happy to vote by party, or even vague policy, despite personality. One of the news channels I was flipping between on election night spoke to a young couple – mid-20s to early 30s – in Arizona or somewhere and they were quite candid about having voted for not Trump. Not because they liked him at all, but because their main priority is the economy and think that’s better handled by conservatives. The woman even said she’s much more socially liberal than the Republicans, but the economy was the big decider for her. (They were, of course, white).
Now, I’m not defending them at all – it’s a remarkably privileged position to be in to vote for economics over social policy you disagree with, let alone the handling of coronavirus – but it shows that even with arguably the most venal, self-centred, heartless and corrupt President in living memory, some people are happy to live with that for what they see as pragmatic reasons.
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I also have to add that the 60M or so that voted for him apparently don’t mind the white supremacists, the kids in cages, the pettiness on Twitter, the dirty old man act with young women, the porn star affair, and on and on…
There is a bit of nuance there though. Obviously, even with the “record” number of voters, we’re still going to barely get over 50% voting in most of the states and that only includes eligible voters who are registered to vote.
Also, a lot of people won’t vote especially among poor populations. This is primarily because neither party has really actively appealed to the poor by helping them. We get more promises to help from Democrats but it always seems like the wealthy and financial interests are first in line before they get down to people struggling with debt or facing foreclosures either from predatory lending or taxes they can’t pay because they don’t have any opportunities to really make much of a living.
When I look at how close the results are, I don’t think people are voting for Trump necessarily because they think he’s doing a great job, but that they don’t trust or have any confidence the Democrats won’t do a worse job. I think democrats needs to really look inward after this and see what they need to do to regain the trust of the people rather than demonizing the people who won’t vote for them.
I hear a lot about how the country is “divided” in the news as if it’s only one side’s fault that it’s divided. It’s not divided. People disagree. It’s childish to accuse someone of being wrong because they disagree with you. There won’t be any progress on closing division by insisting everyone must first agree with any particular position. The whole purpose of a democracy is to find a way for people who disagree to work together.
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These are quite interesting visualisations of how the vote in certain states is narrowing as the count continues.
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The Guardian has published this explainer on the subject of calling states today.
Feels like they’ve been caught out a bit on this. I wonder if we’ll see changes and a wait for greater certainty in future.
Meanwhile, the BBC has published this:
Why do different news sites have different tallies?
If you are seeing different tallies at the top of the live coverage from various news sites, you might well be confused.
This is because some news sites have projected wins in Arizona (meaning an extra 11 electoral college votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral college votes) for Joe Biden.
The BBC still considers these too early to project.
This year, the BBC gets its data via Reuters, from polling firm Edison Research, which does the field work for the exit polls and works with US networks in the National Election Pool.
In Wisconsin, 99% of the votes have been counted, with the candidates neck and neck.
In Arizona, 85% of votes have been counted, and Biden is leading with 51% of the votes, with Trump on 48%.
The watch word this year is “patience”. Stay tuned and we will bring you updates as soon as we have them.
Feels fairly pointed, especially that last part.
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JRCarter wrote:
I also have to add that the 60M or so that voted for him apparently don’t mind the white supremacists, the kids in cages, the pettiness on Twitter, the dirty old man act with young women, the porn star affair, and on and on…Uh…no, I didn’t.
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Based on current numbers, Trump would need about 59% of the remaining AZ ballots to go for him to overtake Biden. Biden needs about 63% of the remaining GA ballots to overtake Trump. Surprisingly, PA may be easier to flip just based on where the outstanding count is coming from. Those are primarily mail in ballots from urban areas like Philly which is heavily Democrat. And mail in ballots in PA are heavily Dem too.
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I listened today to a podcast fr0m the Guardian, recorded before the election, which was interviews with voters ‘sticking with Trump’ after switching to Republican in 2016.
It was notable that they weren’t the full MAGA loons you see at rallies and they were critical of the way he behaves and some things he screwed up. The repeated refrain though was he was an outsider from the political machine.
I don’t think Biden’s repeated refrain about being from humble origins in Scranton could overtake the problem that he was a career politician. I don’t think the Democrats need to select a celebrity next time but I think they need to look outside ‘political experience’ as it seems badly tarnished. I remember when Labour in the UK were looking at a guy called Dan Jarvis (who eventually dropped himself out of the reckoning) it seemed mainly because he had a career in the armed forces and that was immediately appealing to a sector of the electorate that coming from the usual paths wasn’t.
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Right now I’d say the numbers are in Trump’s favor to flip AZ back. Biden really needs to get GA or PA, but there are very few votes left in GA. All 3 states are likely to be way too close. We’re in for a wild, lawsuit filled finish.
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Biden really needs to get GA or PA,
As of this morning Pennsylvania still had just over 1 million uncounted votes, and had agreed to accept any additional ballots that arrive by Friday with a postmark of Tuesday or earlier (all of which is pissing off Trump and his base, so…a good thing). Trump’s lead on Wednesday afternoon was about 380,000 votes in PA, but as of this morning was down to about 183,000 as mail-in votes are being counted. If the mail-in trend continues, by tomorrow we may be seeing Biden’s count overtake Trump’s.
And by the way, for all of Big Cheetoh’s complaints of fraud, this is all perfectly legal. Federal election law gives every state more than a month to count all their ballots, which is why the Electoral College does not cast its votes until mid-December. If the last votes for this election are counted on Friday, we’ll actually be ahead of schedule.
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Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen pulls some votes from Biden and Trump, calls election a ‘wake-up call’
Jorgensen: Tuesday night should be a wake-up call
Jorgensen said third-party voters aren’t to blame for a Republican loss. Republicans are.
“They should be mad at those candidates for not following through on their campaign promises,” she said.
Jorgensen has been campaigning across the country since the summer and said many supporters have come from across party lines – mainly, “recovering Democrats” who want troops called home from overseas missions and Republicans upset that Trump failed to cut the national budget deficit as he promised during his 2016 campaign, she said.
The major parties’ close race this election should be a wake-up call, Jorgensen added.
“If I can get Republicans to start acting like Republicans and cutting the deficit. And if I can get the Democrats to go back to being the party of peace, bringing our troops home, and giving the average individual their rights? Then yes, I would be very pleased.”
About 70% of Jorgensen’s campaign volunteers were registered Democrats or Republicans, she said.
“In the personal conversations I had (on the campaign trail) a lot of people would say, ‘yeah, in 2016 I voted for Trump. I was so excited and then he didn’t follow through on his promises,'” she said.
Jorgensen performed the best in rural, western states. She secured 2.7% of the vote in Alaska and North Dakota and 2.6% of the vote in South Dakota, according to the AP.
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What Happens If Trump Won’t Concede the 2020 Election?
Would love to see the Secret Service drag him out of the White House (preferably kicking and screaming, like the septuagenarian toddler he is).
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The US isn’t as noble as some think it is.
Is there really anyone who thinks that, though?? huh… =P
I mean, Mitch fuckin McTurtle was re-elected. That’s all you need to know…
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Mitch McConnell is already preparing to torpedo Joe Biden’s Cabinet picks
Still being a jackass.
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I saw this one on Facebook
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Fewer than 500 votes separate Trump and Biden in Georgia now, with 99% of the count complete. There’s no way whomever loses that state won’t demand a recount.
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Biden is now ahead by almost 1,000 in Georgia. It’s been firmly Red since 1996
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Yeah Georgia is going to be a recount and there’s also an undetermined number of overseas armed forces votes to add. Wisconsin most likely too as it can be requested if the gap is lower than 1%.
I was reading about past appeals and even when upheld they only tend to affect a few hundred votes at best so really the sheer number of votes is more important than percentages. There’s 200,000 mail in ballots yet to count in Pennsylvania and an 18,000 lead for Trump. If Biden could reverse that then it’d be massive.
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Seems there’s still the possibility of Biden winning by a large enough margin of electoral college votes to make the likely recount states academic, but something tells me this is all going to go on way beyond this week.
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Biden is now ahead by almost 1,000 in Georgia. It’s been firmly Red since 1996
Georgia the state, or Georgia the former Soviet Socialist Republic?
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Biden is now ahead by almost 1,000 in Georgia. It’s been firmly Red since 1996
Georgia the state, or Georgia the former Soviet Socialist Republic?
Why not both?
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Biden is ahead in Pennsylvania as well now, and it looks like Trump can’t regain the lead with the remaining uncounted votes.
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It should end up with 306 electoral votes for Biden and 232 for Trump. Trends are unlikely to reverse and the Secret Service is already acting like Biden has been elected. The popular vote results will be interesting – probably pretty close to 60-65% of eligible voters which still means that about a hundred million Americans are not motivated by either side. Third parties on the other hand probably suffered the most since Trump motivated liberals and progressives who have no confidence in the Democratic party to vote for Biden anyway.
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There seems be little point in the current electoral system in having third parties. If you have forms of PR or preferential voting they make sense.
You’d be better off driving the points within the big 2, like Sanders has. If you have a green agenda you can drive it through the likes of AOC and her green new deal. If you stand as the Green Party then in a race as close as this it just ends up with Trump and the US out of the Paris Climate accords and promoting more coal. You won’t get what you want but you’ll get better.
While 3rd parties have more traction in the UK you get similar problems with first past the post. In Ynys Mon in Wales the vote was split 30% Labour (centre left) 30% Plaid Cymru (further left) and 40% Conservative, so now with 60% of the population voting for progressive parties they are controlled by the right wing.
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Yeah I was just about to post about how skittish outlets are being when it comes to calling the election. By most, if not all, indications there’s basically no path to victory in NV or PA for Trump. But I’m fine with Trump being tied up in election litigation. Less time for him to rampage on his way out.
Slightly unrelated, but Trump supporters fraud claims are a special kind of desperate. They basically believe that the Dems are devious, calculated, coordinated and competent enough to commit widespread voter fraud across multiple states, but not competent enough to remember to vote on all of the down ballot races to ensure Dems get control of everything else. The mental gymnastics they perform for Trump is Olympic level shit.
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the Secret Service is already acting like Biden has been elected
What do you mean by this?
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They basically believe that the Dems are devious, calculated, coordinated and competent enough to commit widespread voter fraud across multiple states
Pathological liars assume that everyone else is lying. Habitual cheaters assume that everyone is a cheat.
The Dems’ biggest fault, as far as I can see, is that they assume others will act decently.
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the Secret Service is already acting like Biden has been elected
What do you mean by this?
A protected airspace zone has been established around Biden’s home
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What do you mean by this?
So basically it’s expected when a President elect is in place the secret service add extra detail to him and as Lorcan says a protected airspace. This has all started moving to his base in Delaware already.
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They basically believe that the Dems are devious, calculated, coordinated and competent enough to commit widespread voter fraud across multiple states, but not competent enough to remember to vote on all of the down ballot races to ensure Dems get control of everything else.
If any of the conspiracy theories were actually true, I’d be voting for the Illuminati and that secret society that faked the moon landing and convince the people the world is a sphere even though it is obviously flat. If anyone could do that, they’d have to be the most effective people in the history of the world.
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Also, huh, why have they not called GA and PA when they’re at 99%?? Weird… Maybe it is because they’re too close and will be asked to recount?
Georgia is astonishingly close, but I don’t see the trend reversing there any more than in Nevada or Arizona. If PA, GA and NV go for Biden, there will be no point in a recount. Though I think GA automatically requires one when elections are within 1%… unless there is a concession.
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Also, huh, why have they not called GA and PA when they’re at 99%?? Weird… Maybe it is because they’re too close and will be asked to recount?
According to the 90 seconds of CNN I watched, there’s still enough overseas military votes in GA to technically flip it back to Trump on a recount. The deadline for those isn’t until today so a lot of them aren’t counted yet.
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GA automatically requires one when elections are within 1%… unless there is a concession.
Doesn’t take a psychic to know THAT’S not gonna happen. If Trump concedes, it will be some time in 2023.
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Rupert Murdoch-owned US outlets turn on Trump, urging him to act with ‘grace’
This reminds me of Michael Heseltine’s old line about Boris Johnson being someone who waits to see which way the crowd is going and then runs in front and shouts “follow me!”. It’d be a lot more meaningful if it wasn’t borne out of necessity.
This is just about the Murdoch outlets trying to save face as they can see things clearly going Biden’s way now. Like a lot of people who have previously allied themselves with Trump, they’re now rapidly seeking to distance themselves from him as he becomes a toxic loser figure.
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Also, as this election count drags on, I’m starting to get quite disappointed with all the continuing talk of Biden “catching up” or “overtaking” Trump (and vice versa) in certain states.
It’s a completely artificial sense of dynamic movement based purely on the order in which votes are counted.
All votes are equally valid, and the fact that a larger proportion of some Trump or Biden votes were counted first and then the other candidate saw a higher proportion of votes counted later on is utterly meaningless when it comes to the final tally.
I know the media wants something to talk about and wants to characterise this in terms of a dynamic race, but the truth is that the final tally is all that matters, and suggesting movement in the days after the vote only plays into the false narrative that additional votes are continuing to come after the election itself.
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This is just about the Murdoch outlets trying to save face as they can see things clearly going Biden’s way now.
It’s always been Murdoch’s way, while he always leans right he’s also happy to swing his allegiances around, like when he allowed his newspapers to switch to Labour in 1997.
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Of course. There’s not a lot of point in being a corrupt press if you’re not corrupt in favour of the people in power.
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Like a lot of people who have previously allied themselves with Trump, they’re now rapidly seeking to distance themselves from him as he becomes a toxic loser figure.
Interesting use of “becomes.”
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Like a lot of people who have previously allied themselves with Trump, they’re now rapidly seeking to distance themselves from him as he becomes a toxic loser figure.
Interesting use of “becomes.”
Like it or not, he won in 2016.
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This is just about the Murdoch outlets trying to save face as they can see things clearly going Biden’s way now. Like a lot of people who have previously allied themselves with Trump, they’re now rapidly seeking to distance themselves from him as he becomes a toxic loser figure.
But they will all jump back on his bandwagon when he runs in 2024. Trump is a figure similar to Berlusconi in Italy but with an American style to him. He’s a completely contradictory character who is either overestimated or underestimated depending on the opposition at the time. He’s a stereotypical promiscuous New Yorker that appeals to a rural population of conservative Christian Southerners. He’s a stereotypical fat cat billionaire that appeals to poor and working class people. Despite almost all polls and common sense predicting a solid defeat, we’re still in a close race. More people voted for Trump this time than voted for him or for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Any president in office the next four years is going to face probably the worst set of circumstances this century, so the chances of a second Trump term in 2024 are not entirely out of the question. He’ll be close to 80, so maybe that will disqualify him for many, but his dad lived to 93 and mother lived to 88, so he’ll likely still have some spark.
However, Trumpism certainly won’t leave with a Biden win. If anything, this election and the entirely predictable accusations of fraud that come with it will simply energize the MAGA movement. And a defeat here will hardly shut him up the next four years.
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But they will all jump back on his bandwagon when he runs in 2024.
Grace and Bob willing he’ll be in prison by then, but I’m like 75% sure Biden’s gonna issue him a pardon in the spirit of bipartisan reconciliation
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But they will all jump back on his bandwagon when he runs in 2024.
Grace and Bob willing he’ll be in prison by then, but I’m like 75% sure Biden’s gonna issue him a pardon in the spirit of bipartisan reconciliation
Fuck that. I’m hoping a heart attack or stroke takes Trump out permanently.
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As I posted the quoted of woman professor before, you still have to deal with about 49% of the population that are his supporters, militias and others heavily armed and willing to use it to force their way, racist, having this distrust of the government and elections when it doesn’t go their way, listening to conspiracy theories and twisted news, and on and on.
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It looks like Biden win Pennsylvania so he will be the next POTUS.
I guess it’s all over except for the lawsuits.
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AP has called it now for Biden.
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I’m actually surprised they haven’t called NV as well. With 90% of the outstanding ballots coming from a very blue county, it’s very unlikely that Trump could even make up ground, let alone surpass Biden. But yeah, let the legal battles commence. Although it really seems that the Trump campaign has very little to stand on. The only hope for Trump would be that whatever recounts happen somehow have massive, unprecedented shifts.
Moving beyond the presidential campaign, I’m still a bit shocked with Maine. Biden won easily there, and yet so did Susan Collins? What the hell, Maine…
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Next to a sex shop with a ‘dildo madness’ sale on.
I am not making this up.
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But yeah, let the legal battles commence. Although it really seems that the Trump campaign has very little to stand on. The only hope for Trump would be that whatever recounts happen somehow have massive, unprecedented shifts.
We can only hope he forces recounts that end up giving Biden just a little bit more of the vote.
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Next to a sex shop with a ‘dildo madness’ sale on.
I am not making this up.
I bet Suggs was surprised.
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Was reading on the history of recounts and in 27 of them since the year 2000 the average shift is around 200 votes, the largest 440.
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Was reading on the history of recounts and in 27 of them since the year 2000 the average shift is around 200 votes, the largest 440.
Blimey, this conspiracy against Trump started early.
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I’m actually surprised they haven’t called NV as well. With 90% of the outstanding ballots coming from a very blue county, it’s very unlikely that Trump could even make up ground, let alone surpass Biden.
Fox have called it now. Was reading from a former decision desk guy that the problem was with the early call on Arizona. They had worries they’d have to call it back and with Nevada that would mean announcing Biden had won the entire thing and then calling it back. So they held off until they could see a 0.5% of higher lead in PA because then the other two don’t make a difference to the 270 barrier.
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And while I am, of course, disappointed that Dems failed to pick up enough seats for a majority in the Senate (I don’t trust that enough of the right voters will show up for the GA runoffs), I can at least be happy that we should be getting rid of Trump, Pence, Stephen Miller, Mnuchin, Barr, DevVos, Kushner, etc. Getting these people out is not a small thing. I’ll take whatever we can get while we watch Trump kick and scream like the psychotic toddler he is.
Also, it seems almost lost in all this, but congrats to Kamala Harris for making history. That’s also no small thing.
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Trump has announced he’s going to be holding a press conference later, but apparently it’s going to be at a landscaping company?
They’re going to help bury him?
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Just saw a video of two Trump supporters at one of the protests/rallies today dancing to Killing in the Name Of. One of them has a Blue Lives Matter flag wrapped around her neck.
IT’S THE LEAST SUBTLE SONG IN THE HISTORY OF MUSIC AND THEY STILL DON’T GET IT
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Just saw a video of two Trump supporters at one of the protests/rallies today dancing to Killing in the Name Of. One of them has a Blue Lives Matter flag wrapped around her neck.
IT’S THE LEAST SUBTLE SONG IN THE HISTORY OF MUSIC AND THEY STILL DON’T GET IT
Like when Ronald Reagan used “Born in the USA” as a campaign song.
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Seems it is safe to say Biden (or maybe Harris?) will be president so I’m happy for the Americans here. I hope there will be some return to normalcy. As horrid a president as Trump may have been, he didn’t start a new war, I am grateful for that.
Guess the Assad curse struck again.
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Sayonara, Donald, you dumb fuck.
I was about to post but this is perfect.
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