Time for a new politics thread. Guessing it’ll be fairly quiet given the calm and measured state of world politics today.
Home » Forums » The Loveland Arms – pub chat » Politics: dead cats and red hats
On another note: There are a lot of Senate seats up for grabs. Maybe the Senate can be flipped.
On another note: There are a lot of Senate seats up for grabs. Maybe the Senate can be flipped.
Cruz: GOP could face ‘bloodbath of Watergate proportions’ on Election Day
Here’s hoping…
I’m sure there are days he regrets running for president in the first place.
Finally I agree with him on something!
I’m sure there are days he regrets running for president in the first place.
He is such a narcissist and egotist I don’t think regrets anything. He is never responsible. He always has a fall guy to blame.
Trump lacks the basic ability to genuinely criticize himself and his actions. No chance he would ever come so far as to see, understand and admit that he’s wrong, at fault or has made a mistake. Do you honestly think he’s even theoretically capable of regret?
Often when I am faced with the Dems complete cluelessness in how to combat or even respond to the increasingly unhinged lawlessness and corruption that the GOP has normalized on its quest for total and absolute power I am reminded of this comic strip.
Often when I am faced with the Dems complete cluelessness
Too many of them watched The West Wing, thought it was a documentary, and now believe that they can talk their adversaries into doing the right thing.
There may have been a time when US government functioned like that, but it was left somewhere in the 20th century. Probably right around Clinton’s impeachment when the GOP started shaking in their boots about Hilary someday being president. Which, not so coincidentally was also right about the same time Fox News was founded. I still think Fox News might be the single most damaging thing to happen to American politics in, at least, my lifetime. The current state of the GOP basically is a reflection of the propaganda Fox has been selling for 25 years.
Seeing as the Dems and Republicans serve the same donors, I think the Dems’ main function is to keep the electorate from going too far left. See how quickly and decisively they mobilized against Bernie in the primaries versus how in most other circumstances they govern as if they have no power. Aside from a few social issues like abortion and gay marriage, they want pretty much the same world as the Republicans do.
We can’t even say they differ that much on climate change since the Dem establishment stance is apparently “we believe the science; no, we’re not going to take the measures needed to address it.” (Which, btw, essentially makes them climate change denialists.)
That was a really good sketch when it was just Rudolph as Harris messing with Pence. As soon as it went to Carrey and the Fly parody, it turned to shit.
How the Italians deal with anti-maskers:
Absolute scenes at the Senate (Italian parliament) in Rome today!#Sgarbi pic.twitter.com/HJvWHrs8U8
— James (@JJChandlerr) June 25, 2020
I would pay four guys to do that to Trump. Just sayin’…
Just saw a video of people waiting 11 hours to vote early in the US elections.
I’m not sure how many people in the ‘mother of democracies’ understand how abnormal and weird this is. I’ve never spent more than 5 minutes casting my vote at a polling station in the UK, just walk up, hand your polling card over, do the ballot and straight out.
In Malaysia I can’t vote but my wife and her mother went out in the car and were back home within 30 minutes.
Is this normal, or is this because of a massive campaign of voter suppression? As much as I’m encouraged by the ridiculous queues I’m seeing on Twitter (I’m guessing the majority aren’t Trump voters) it’s insane that you should have to wait in such a long line.
Is this normal, or is this because of a massive campaign of voter suppression? As much as I’m encouraged by the ridiculous queues I’m seeing on Twitter (I’m guessing the majority aren’t Trump voters) it’s insane that you should have to wait in such a long line.
As always, it’s two things. While the voter suppression has been ramped up this year, with stories of fake ballot drop boxes in California and distribution of polling sites in Texas that don’t take population into account and the like, it’s been going on pretty much since they started giving undesirables the right to vote. Non-white people are generally seven times more likely to face some sort of obstruction to voting in the US.
By comparison, the longest it’s taken me to vote in Ireland is about 30 minutes, and that was when I was a 20 minute walk from the polling station. Since our last move it’s generally less than 10 minutes from home to the polling booth and back.
Is this normal, or is this because of a massive campaign of voter suppression?
As Lorcan says- a combination of the two. Those waits are in Georgia which is recently rather renowned for manipulating the vote and 11 hours has to be an extreme.
However it prompted a long Twitter thread that had a lot of Americans report being used to waiting in line for long periods while the Canadians, Brits and Aussies all pretty much reported they wander in and vote straight away, maybe a little 10 minute queue if they go at lunchtime.
I did a quick check and Iowa has almost exactly the same population as Wales – 3.2 million – in their last election they had just over 400 polling stations, in the last election in Wales they had 2971. So there’s a pretty clear indication there where the difference lies. Bear in mind too that physically Iowa is over 6 times bigger than Wales and that’s a lot of travelling to get to a voting booth and no surprise mail-in is more popular.
How the fuck any of this is possible is a complete mystery to me.
It’s deliberately designed that way, and then sold to the American people as the best system in the world.
As a white man in a predominantly white community in NYS, it takes me 5 minutes or less to vote. it took longer in Colorado but not that much longer. I did not know about the delays in other communities. It does not surprise me. A polling station costs money and takes time(which translates into more money). Those in power do not want spend money to assist people who might remove them from power. I am also not surprised we are learning about this now because Trump is more incompetent and lazy than previous politicians.
The US voting system is terrible for far too many, but at least I’m heartened to see it not deterring people right now. Early voting is up nearly 10 fold from this point in 2016. Around 14 million votes already cast or returned via mail. That’s around 10% of all votes cast in 2016. Add to it that Biden’s polling has only increased this month and that for the last 4 months he’s consistently polled at or above 50% while also consistently polling well in MI, WI, PA and even AZ and it gets harder to see legitimate paths for a Trump victory.
Of course we know anything can happen including Trump trying to steal the election if it’s close, but I remain optimistic. Perhaps foolishly so, but his debate performance mixed with his vivid diagnosis that stemmed from a stupid super spreader event for a justice nomination that most of the country doesn’t want to move forward before the election is over…it’s hard to see a solid enough bounce back. Especially when Trump backed out of debate #2.
Still plenty of reasons for concern, like how knowing the outcome of the election on Nov 3rd likely comes down to FL, but I need to be hopeful over these next 20 days.
How the fuck any of this is possible is a complete mystery to me.
There’s a fundamental error in the setup. I don’t know about other countries but since they have similar results I’ll make an assumption they are similar to the UK. The Electoral Commission is independent and non-partisan, so while not perfect it usually ends up with the same access to the voting booths wherever you live. Constituency/district borders are defined by a mathematical formula. There are the odd minor problems but generally it is not an issue, if you live in a Labour or Tory stronghold there will typically be a very nearby polling station in a local school or church hall and the process is really painless.
In the US while there are some federal fundamentals a lot of the process is left to state legislatures that are partisan, are headed by political parties. So if it seems to advantage them either way they can manipulate the process to make it easier or harder to vote. They also use a variety of mechanisms and machines that are quite frankly a complete waste of time and money. Sunderland in the UK prides itself on gathering and counting old fashioned paper votes within an hour and a half of polls closing. Yes it has an advantage being a mostly urban area and rural ones naturally take longer but it is an area of pride to run it really efficiently, not for any party political point but just to show it can be done.
Trump is more incompetent and lazy than previous politicians
And corrupt! Don’t forget corrupt!
Trump is more incompetent and lazy than previous politicians
And corrupt! Don’t forget corrupt!
Conservative Columnist Sums Up Donald Trump’s Strong Case For Worst President In History
“What are they thinking?” Max Boot of The Washington Post asked of Trump’s supporters.
By Lee Moran
Conservative columnist Max Boot asked a damning question of Donald Trump’s supporters as he summed up in his latest editorial for The Washington Post why he believed Trump had made a “strong case” for being the worst president in the history of the United States.
Boot reeled off in his column published Tuesday a long list of reasons for why Trump should take the “worst president” title — from his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic and trafficking in racism to his inciting of violence, xenophobia and welcoming “of Russian attacks on our elections.”
The commentator, who quit the GOP following Trump’s 2016 victory, acknowledged “there are single-issue voters to whom Trump has a strong appeal.”
But he also asked of the tens of millions of people who still support the president, given his long list of controversies and scandals, “What are they thinking?”
Read Boot’s full editorial here.
I wonder if they’ve tried turning it off and on again?
And …. It’s time for Brexit No Deal.
Johnson to say the UK must prepare for no deal.
That phrasing makes it sound like he’s not the PM, just a commentator saying what should be done without any link to what happens or responsibility for it.
No no, it’s not “no deal”. It’s “an Australia style deal”!
Just ignore the fact that Australia don’t have a trade deal with the EU.
Australia style fuck all still equals fuck all
Yes, it’s just spin. Australia trade with the EU on WTO terms, which are the default terms of a no deal.
It’s not a huge issue for Australia as they are on the other side of the world from Europe so it’s a small portion of their trade and they aren’t getting thousands of trucks shipping goods in and out every day.
WTO
Of all the NGO’s this is the scariest one.
I don’t disagree although in this instance the WTO terms are really just a basic set of tariffs and rules agreed on as a bare international minimum many years ago. A long list of things like Potatoes 5%, Curtain Rails 7% etc.
It’s not quite as intimidating as it could sound – like the WTO are there controlling it all from above.
Curtain Rails 7%
So, today is a big day today for QAnon. For some time they’ve expected that at Trump’s big rally in Dallas this evening he’ll announce that Mike Pence is stepping down as Vice President and JFK Jr. (who faked his death so he can fight the evil cabal of Jews human traffickers) is going to take his place as Trump’s running mate.
Of course, Trump isn’t holding a rally in Dallas today, but you know, this is all part of The Plan.
Some people who literally believe this won their Primaries and are running for Senate in Oregon and Delaware amongst other states.
Proof yet again that the main thing dystopian novelists got wrong is how dumb the future would be.
Proof yet again that the main thing dystopian novelists got wrong is how dumb the future would be.
Assemblage 23 just released an album about how depressingly mundane and stupid the apocalypse has turned out to be.
Assemblage 23 is not a bad band by any stretch, I need to listen to this.
Assemblage 23 is not a bad band by any stretch, I need to listen to this.
I haven’t listened to the album yet, but a EBM/Industrial podcast I like has spun a few tracks and had Tom on to talk about it last week, it’s really good
Proof yet again that the main thing dystopian novelists got wrong is how dumb the future would be.
So, the future began four years ago then, at least in Murricah?
Proof yet again that the main thing dystopian novelists got wrong is how dumb the future would be.
So, the future began four years ago then, at least in Murricah?
Only four?
Jon Voight insists President Trump ‘must win’ election, slams ‘evil’ Joe Biden
Angelina, get your Dad.
Jon Voight insists President Trump ‘must win’ election, slams ‘evil’ Joe Biden
Angelina, get your Dad.
That whole family is fucked up.
Donald Trump says he might leave US if he loses to Joe Biden
Please do.
Donald Trump says he might leave US if he loses to Joe Biden
Please do.
Watch as he picks a country the US doesn’t have an extradition treaty with because he wants to dodge the New York state investigators
Countries with US extradition treaties in green:
Well he has pals in Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Countries with US extradition treaties in green:
Well he has pals in Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Some of those extradition treaties are conditional. Sweden, for example, won’t extradite someone if they risk the death penalty.
“Can you imagine if I lose, my whole life, what am I going to do? I am going to say I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics?” Mr Trump said.
“I am not going to feel so good, maybe I will have to leave the country, I don’t know,” Mr Trump added, while drawing laughs from the crowd.
Yep, sounds about right. He may be introducing this as a joke, but I’m pretty sure fleeing the country is the only way for him to avoid jail once he’s out.
God it’ll be so good to see that motherfucker gone in a few weeks.
I am going to say I lost to the worst candidate in the history of politics?” Mr Trump said.
I think Biden’s pretty terrible, but I can think of at least one person running in this election who’s far worse. Unless he’s fearing a landslide for Jo Jorgensen
It’ll be a fun novelty to see a former American leader evading prosecution in his homeland by living off the grace and favours of other nations for once.
God it’ll be so good to see that motherfucker gone in a few weeks.
Don’t underestimate the stupidity of American voters, nor the lengths the Republican Party will go to in order to steal this election.
Court rules that late votes cannot be counted
Some of those extradition treaties are conditional. Sweden, for example, won’t extradite someone if they risk the death penalty.
That counts for every EU member actually, they won’t extradite to states with the death penalty as it is against EU admission laws. Abu Hamza for example was only extradited from the UK to the US with guarantees he could not face the death penalty.
Saying that as much I think Trump sucks I don’t think anything he’s done is worthy of capital punishment under any US law.
I get the feeling that most countries that have had a good relationship with the US prior to Trump’s presidency would A) not welcome him into their borders as a fugitive, and B) would instantly allow him to be extradited if he tried to seek sanctuary. As Gar says, it’s not as if he has committed any crimes that would warrant the death penalty, and those allied countries would have no reason to interfere with the US attempts to bring him to trial.
I feel like Gar’s mentiones of Russia and Saudi Arabia are great guesses.
Does Saudi Arabia have golf courses?
Saudi Arabia does have golf courses, even a pro tournament once a year.
If (and it’s still a big if) Trump did do a bunk overseas I would very comfortably bet on one of those two where he’d end up. Most probably Russia as the Saudis like to at least appear to co-operate with the US, Russia have shown by harbouring Edward Snowden that they don’t give a shit.
I wouldn’t discount him ending up in North Korea.
Proof yet again that the main thing dystopian novelists got wrong is how dumb the future would be.
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.” -George Carlin
The debate is tomorrow and this time around, the moderator can mute the microphones.
Interesting. We will see…
I thought the mute section was only for the opening two-minute speeches on each topic? That the debate sections would be a free for all?
Ice Cube Says He’s ‘Not Supporting Trump,’ Believes White Supremacy Is on ‘Both Sides of the Aisle’
I’m reminded of what Malcolm X said about the “sly fox” and the “growling wolf”.
Both sides are still comprised of primarily old white men, so yeah I can believe it exists to some extent on both sides. I really wish the US would switch to ranked choice voting so we could actually start to see potentially viable 3rd parties rise up.
Both sides are still comprised of primarily old white men, so yeah I can believe it exists to some extent on both sides. I really wish the US would switch to ranked choice voting so we could actually start to see potentially viable 3rd parties rise up.
I said it before but after the 2016 loss, the Biden, Warren, and Bernie should have gotten together and made a pact not to run in 2020. Instead, begin finding and developing the next generation of candidates for the party. Not just for POTUS, but all levels. They would be mentors to them and introduce them to power players who could help them. They need to start looking forward. AOC and her crew took it upon themselves and I think can be that future.
AOC and her crew took it upon themselves and I think can be that future.
Keep your voice down, Todd — you’re in Texas!!
AOC and her crew took it upon themselves and I think can be that future.
Keep your voice down, Todd — you’re in Texas!!
It’s okay, I’m in Houston. We are deep blue here.
I said it before but after the 2016 loss, the Biden, Warren, and Bernie should have gotten together and made a pact not to run in 2020. Instead, begin finding and developing the next generation of candidates for the party. Not just for POTUS, but all levels. They would be mentors to them and introduce them to power players who could help them. They need to start looking forward. AOC and her crew took it upon themselves and I think can be that future.
Maybe Warren and Sanders, but Biden still represents the dominant conservative, neoliberal wing of the Democratic party. The Republican party is increasingly radically right-wing, so candidates like Biden and even Obama, in the Clinton model, can still appeal in comparison, but it does leave any political movement toward equity for the indigent, minorities or working class concerns excluded from real power. The republicans definitely don’t care about the majority of the country or even their own voters. You can hear that clearly whenever Mitch McConnell opens his mouth. However, neither do the majority of Democratic leaders who actually have the power to do anything. There no longer are people like LBJ or Kennedy – or even Nixon for that matter – that, even though they were very ruthless in obtaining power, had a strong vision for what they wanted to achieve with that power. The assertions that a Biden presidency would move the needle radically to the left are ridiculous, but so would be any expectation that any Democrat that holds any significant political power nationally would challenge the “extreme centre” or what most nations would call center-right policies promoting strong military interventionism, limited civil rights and economy controlled by the financial sector.
I think the counter to that is assuming any leader is that important, not just a President but in any system. If you look at macroeconomics really it is a societal shift in emphasis, Eisenhower set upper tax rates at a level even Bernie Sanders would consider a step too far to propose.
What’s really important is setting the agenda of the day, driving the narrative. The left economically has failed that for 40 years, although they’ve had a lot of success in social issues.
That, and not a personal epiphany has seen Biden shift to the left of when he boasted of being the most conservative Democrat when Reagan was winning every state. Things he championed today like green investment and a $15 minimum wage have overwhelming public support in polling.
I’m not sure if you had either Sanders or Biden in for the next 4 years anything would change significantly in what changes over the term.
In the UK Labour’s economic stance has not changed at all in a switchover from Corbyn to Starmer, people just think it has because one wore a Soviet style hat and looked scruffy and the other wears a shirt and tie and has a knighthood.
True, I think the idea that we’re in a system or need a system is driving a lot of political action. I think that is probably the result of so many politicians and political party leaders being lawyers. There is too much of a focus on the importance of bureaucracy rather than seeing it as a tool for action and subject to the demands of political power.
But since we have strong examples of leaders in the past who’ve overcome the system to make a difference, I think the system is far less important than the emphasis it is given. In fact, it is likely that systems are very flexible against real power. Examining the history of past presidents and senators, it seems inaccurate to say that a person takes power when they receive the office in an election. Instead, it seems like a person must have power to really fill the office. I think Biden is the most powerful of the Democratic candidates, but I don’t think he will make a great president because he won’t be the most powerful individual in the government.
Even then, there will be something that throws off any person in office. Though World War 2 may have made FDR a great president, it really threw a wrench into achieving his domestic goals when he was elected. Same for the Civil War and Lincoln, for that matter. Name any major Presidency – even the best – and it is likely there was some unanticipated event that became the entire focus of their administration no matter what they wanted to achieve. For LBJ, it was Vietnam. For Nixon, Watergate. For Clinton, Lewinsky. Obama had Libya and Syria but otherwise simply losing the senate was probably the biggest blow and being followed by Trump kinda killed his legacy. Obviously, Covid and Black Lives Matter – despite every other scandal or bonehead policy move he’s made – have wrecked his presidency even if he wins a second term.
Biden is obviously, to me, the better choice compared to Trump, but the republican party is so bad, it feels like they only exist to make the Democratic leadership palatable. I can’t imagine either party really being able to accomplish anything significant with the problems we face because they will almost certainly use the same thinking that got us into this hole to try to dig us out of it. “Dig up!” should be their motto. However, it’s not the system itself, but that I think Biden actually believes in that system. He’s been a champion for it his entire career. Even if he wanted to change it, I think he couldn’t because he doesn’t have power and I can’t think of anyone in politics who has the willpower to obtain power and the vision to use it.
Ironically, I do think Trump could have power if he wanted it, but his entire approach to life is to be a salesman and not a leader. He plays the role of the best, genius boss – even literally at times on The Apprentice – but he’s just selling the brand. Like anyone from a used car lot to a Wall Street investment firm knows, the customers sell themselves. If they are on the lot, then they want to buy. Trump doesn’t have a plan, but he sells the idea that it is a great plan – the hugest plan in the history of plans – and that’s all the voter needs to know. Then they will project what they want into that plan. It would destroy the illusion if it was actually a real plan. I know many Trump supporters who still think he’s doing the best job in living memory, but no two of them would agree on exactly what he’s done or is doing.
He’s just doing what they would want done which, I believe, is the deeper tragedy of the Trump administration. I get the impression that all the terrible things going on are simply the released urges of a society that he’s championed and enabled essentially for the applause than any actual goal.
1 million people have voted in Harris County, breaking 2016 early-voting record
One million people have voted in Harris County as of Friday at 3 p.m., according to the Harris County Clerk.
By Friday, the number of early voters in Harris County surpassed the total number of early voters in 2016, according to the county clerk office. Now, every vote adds to a new early voting record.
This voting milestone reflects the record-breaking turnout the county has experienced this election season.
On the first day of early voting, Harris County shattered the record with about 128,000 people voting on October 13. In fact, the record for the highest day turnout during early voting was broken around 4 p.m., when the total passed 105,000 people, which was set in 2016.
The trend continued the following day of early voting. Nearly 100,000 ballots were cast on October 14, which beat the day-two-early-voting record of 73,542 set in 2016.
Registered voters are allowed to cast their ballot at any polling place during early voting. The appropriate identification is required.
Go to harrisvotes.com to find a polling place, check wait times, view your sample ballot and review identification requirements.
Early voting ends on Oct. 30.
Early voting does seem to be very strong across the country (where it’s allowed anyway).
The high level of early voting has led Michael McDonald, the University of Florida professor who administers the US Elections Project, to predict a record turnout of about 150 million, representing 65% of eligible voters, the highest rate since 1908.
Fingers crossed it’s the ‘right people’ like those who voted Obama in 2012 and went missing in 2016. I was listening to an election strategist on the Guardian politics podcast who was pointing out that the Republican gains in the likes of Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won in 2016 was actually really small, the reduction in Democrats turning out to vote is what tilted it to him winning.
Fingers crossed it’s the ‘right people’ like those who voted Obama in 2012 and went missing in 2016. I was listening to an election strategist on the Guardian politics podcast who was pointing out that the Republican gains in the likes of Wisconsin and Michigan that Trump won in 2016 was actually really small, the reduction in Democrats turning out to vote is what tilted it to him winning.
Increased voter turnout generally favours the Democrats, the US population tends to be more progressive than the die-hard voters.
The high level of early voting has led Michael McDonald, the University of Florida professor who administers the US Elections Project, to predict a record turnout of about 150 million, representing 65% of eligible voters, the highest rate since 1908.
Isn’t there a high chance that this year will have a higher share of early voting than usual because of Covid? People trying to avoid the regular dates when there will be crowds? I don’t think you can just project the share of early voting towards general votes the way they seem to be doing there.
Also, I am not sure whether they’re talking only in person early voting there or also mail-in votes? Because as we know, the latter bring their own potential for trouble with them…
But yeah, overall this is a very good sign.
Fingers crossed it’s the ‘right people’
You mean the “left people”.
Isn’t there a high chance that this year will have a higher share of early voting than usual because of Covid?
A decent amount but as we spoke about earlier in places like Georgia the queues are still several hours and lots of people so it doesn’t infer any greater safety there against exposure to Covid.
You are right you can’t reliably just project on today’s numbers but it’s interesting as an estimate.
Increased voter turnout generally favours the Democrats, the US population tends to be more progressive than the die-hard voters.
That’s probably the most optimistic factor so far IF it turns out that many more people are actually voting and being correctly counted. Otherwise, Biden is simply in the same position Clinton was at this time in the last election — apparently leading in the polls.
Last time, a lot of the surprising action occurred in November just before the election when many polls had stopped collecting data. With more early voting, it seems unlikely to repeat since polls would be reaching more people who have already voted. Still, it is impossible to reliably predict 20 minutes from now, and some of the arguments the Trafalgar Group makes for a “hidden” Trump lead are worrying.
Still, it is impossible to reliably predict 20 minutes from now
Shit. My cooking’s ruined.
Still, it is impossible to reliably predict 20 minutes from now
Shit. My cooking’s ruined.
I could have predicted that.
The high level of early voting has led Michael McDonald, the University of Florida professor who administers the US Elections Project, to predict a record turnout of about 150 million, representing 65% of eligible voters, the highest rate since 1908.
Isn’t there a high chance that this year will have a higher share of early voting than usual because of Covid? People trying to avoid the regular dates when there will be crowds? I don’t think you can just project the share of early voting towards general votes the way they seem to be doing there.
Also, I am not sure whether they’re talking only in person early voting there or also mail-in votes? Because as we know, the latter bring their own potential for trouble with them…
But yeah, overall this is a very good sign.
The early voting numbers being reported include returned mail-in ballots too. I believe on Thursday, the early voting numbers officially surpassed the 2016’s early voting total of 47 million.
Here’s a site with tons of 2020 early voting stats for anyone that’s interested: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Texas early voting numbers are pretty crazy. They’re at 75% of the total for the entire 2016 election already. Places like Florida, Georgia and NC are also over 55% of 2016’s total vote count. It’s certainly encouraging to see such big turnouts so far. Whether it leads to positive election results, of course, won’t be known for at least 10 days. The big states to keep an eye on on election day are going to be NC and Florida (unfortunately). Florida can start counting their mail in ballots right away unlike some of the other big swing states, so if Biden could somehow actually win FL by a margin big enough for it to be called on election night then that’s basically game over for Trump. If it’s too close to call or they can declare Trump the winner, then we’re in for a long ride.
Still, the fact that Biden appears to only be about as far ahead of Trump as Hillary did concerns me. With the country in a serious emergency where the leader has performed so poorly, Trump should be doing terrible in this race, but even with a very disorganized campaign, his popularity is not dropping significantly and not much changed since the debate. In fact, the race only seems to be getting closer and I think a truly close race from a media perspective really means Trump’s chances are much better. Meanwhile, Biden is so committed to the middle of the road, I don’t think his sales pitch for the voters is going to get any more attractive. If anything, the last debate could have left people with the impression that Biden was really a committed conservative.
It’s insane that Trump still has 40% support, for sure. Fox News has basically helped turned the GOP into a cult at this point. But it’s probably worth pointing out that Biden’s lead is a bit different that Clinton’s.
First, Biden is currently up about 9% in the average of polls. At this same point in time Clinton was up about 5.5%. 3.5% might not seems like a big number, but it’s pretty substantial. Second, Biden has been polling at or above 50% for months now. Clinton never really even got close to 50% in the polls. This means there are fewer third party/undecideds for Trump to work with as in the polling averages there are about 6-7% saying they’ll vote 3rd party or just don’t know this year vs 14-15% at this point in 2016. Third, the polls have been more consistent in general. In 2016, the polls fluctuated quite a bit and there were multiple times that Trump and Clinton were virtually tied. That hasn’t been the case this year. Biden has held a steady lead for months in the polls. In the polling averages, Biden hasn’t had a lead of less than 6% since before June. In 2016, Clinton rarely polled ahead by 6 points or more. Finally, pollsters have changed their models since 2016 to try to address some of the polling errors that year, most notably weighting by education more so to account for the amount of support Trump got from whites without college degrees.
Now, that’s not to say there’s not reason to be concerned. Swings states like FL, OH and NC are still very close in the polls and there could be different types of polling errors this year. Everyone in the US should vote like Biden and Trump on neck and neck. Still, I did want to point out some of the differences to maybe help give a little context.
Won’t matter. Trump will win.
And IF he loses, he would go to civil war before leaving the White House.
And IF he loses, he would go to civil war before leaving the White House.
Away from the US, it turns out that defending voting down further provision of free school meals for poor kids is very, very difficult!
Twitter has been ablaze, councils have said they will respond to Rashford’s campaign directly and many MPs are getting quite the barracking for their voting decision, as they find that outside of Parliament there are far harsher terms than ‘scum’ that get applied.
One of the Conservatives that voted against did so on the basis of “not nationalising children”, whatever the hell that means.
Johnson will wait for US election result before no-deal Brexit decision
Interesting.
Isn’t it? If Trump loses, Johnson loses his best distraction away from all the crap he does. In a post-Trump world, the spotlight would be more on him and he isn’t good in it.
Just throwing this out there. Sorry if I’m poking the bear.
Trump should lose, and horribly. Embarrassingly, then the beginnings of Civil Court, Divorce Court, Criminal Court.
However, the unknown factor is Joe Biden is hard to like.
I’m sorry, but I said it.
He just doesn’t have what Barack Obama or Bill Clinton has.
Al Gore is far superior to Biden, yet he managed to lose to an idiot.
Hillary Clinton losing should have forced them (Democrats) to help bring up good up-and-comers.
Wait, someone said that up thread…
I said it before but after the 2016 loss, the Biden, Warren, and Bernie should have gotten together and made a pact not to run in 2020. Instead, begin finding and developing the next generation of candidates for the party. Not just for POTUS, but all levels. They would be mentors to them and introduce them to power players who could help them. They need to start looking forward.
Yes! Thanks Todd!
At the same time I think it’s sad that you need to be a rock star from the left to win.
Still, I don’t think the next generation of politicians really has the will or drive to obtain power nor would they be able to have power over the party rather than the reverse. I think this is a reason we get such mediocre candidates put forward and why Trump was so easily able to defy and dominate the GOP in 2016 and beat Clinton. The first lesson of Trump’s victory is that a lot of people will vote for literally anyone who is obviously not a part of the established political machine.
I don’t want the elder politicians to really provide much mentorship to the next generation as they are far more likely to pass on the fundamental thinking that is really holding the party back from actually doing anything with power to help people who are powerless.
However, the unknown factor is Joe Biden is hard to like. […] Hillary Clinton losing should have forced them (Democrats) to help bring up good up-and-comers.
Oh, I think Uncle Joe very much has a reputation for being likeable, and that that’s the main reason why he’s the candidate. The Dems don’t want to experiment right now, they wanted someone stable that people know and like. As Vice President, he was very well-liked (remember Jim going on about him?), and he’s got that “I’d-have-a-beer-with-this-guy” quality that Bush Jr had. He’s become less likeable with age for certain, but he’s definitely not off-putting in the way Hillary was.
I don’t want the elder politicians to really provide much mentorship to the next generation as they are far more likely to pass on the fundamental thinking that is really holding the party back from actually doing anything with power to help people who are powerless.
Well, you know, both Biden and Warren would have been very different where that is concerned. The Dems did have other choices in the older generation, they just went for the status quo candidate.
But this is why Ocasio-Cortez is so important for the Democrats. I really do think she’s an incredible political talent, and in twelve years time she’ll probably be the democratic candidate (after one term Biden, Kamala’s one-term presidency and another GOP one-term presidency).
In today’s “no shit” news:
Brexit: Cost of everyday goods ‘could rise’ without a deal, hauliers warn
Maybe we could have dwelled on this a little more in, say, May 2016?
he’s definitely not
off-putting in the way Hillary wasa woman
and he’s got that “I’d-have-a-beer-with-this-guy” quality that Bush Jr had.
Despite Bush Jr being a recovered alcoholic who absolutely wouldn’t have a drink with you.
Trump also won on that metric last time over Hillary, even though by all accounts he doesn’t drink alcohol, while Hillary loves her wine.
Trump also won on that metric last time over Hillary, even though by all accounts he doesn’t drink alcohol, while Hillary loves her wine.
Hillare wines while Trump whines.
I think it’s an age thing.
Well, you know, both Biden and Warren would have been very different where that is concerned. The Dems did have other choices in the older generation, they just went for the status quo candidate. But this is why Ocasio-Cortez is so important for the Democrats. I really do think she’s an incredible political talent, and in twelve years time she’ll probably be the democratic candidate (after one term Biden, Kamala’s one-term presidency and another GOP one-term presidency).
Sanders and Warren, maybe, but Biden is pretty much the status quo candidate. In the end, I honestly don’t expect Biden to challenge the economic power of the banks any more than Obama did when he took office. Raising corporate taxes won’t affect the banks very much since they also own much of the government’s debt so whatever they pay in taxes will be part of what the government already owes them.
“[Sep 2020]Holdings at U.S. commercial banks of Treasury and agency securities other than mortgage bonds have grown by more than $250 billion since the end of February as their total deposits have jumped by more than $2 trillion, according to Federal Reserve data.”
On top of that, these are banks – if anyone knows how to get out of paying taxes, it’s the banks. If there is no serious debt cancellation and restructuring plan, then the financial, insurance and real estate sectors of the economy will continue to be a drag on the ability of the working class to acquire capital. Meanwhile, the profits of these parasitical schemes will give the appearance of a growing economy when most people are really seeing their prosperity dwindle.
For example, this is the sort of thing that happens back where I grew up. Someone works a job as a pipefitter or machine operator at the local chemical plant all their life and pay off a house they bought for $20,000 in 1975. They never really plan to sell the house, but it is capital they can rely on if they need to in retirement. So, after they retire, they still have to pay property tax on that house even if they’ve paid off the mortgage.
Then when they are in their 70’s and rely on a fixed income, let’s say the chemical plant closes or lays off a lot of people and the city government needs to attract investment into the area. This homeowner could see their tax bill double in a year because the city wants that property to attract say a WalMart or some new sort of industrial plant. The homeowner can’t pay that much more than their retirement budget allows AND they are no longer able to get a job because the chemical plant closed and they are in their 70’s.
So, that leads to a tax lien foreclosure. The house is sold at public auction for the taxes owed and any costs or fees related to the deed transfer. Not sold for what the house is supposedly worth – which ironically is much higher because the the city assessment that kicked this whole thing off.
However, there is a step in between that is often ignored. The city doesn’t hold on to the tax lien when it is created. Instead, they are allowed to sell that lien to a private buyer who then can force the homeowner to auction off their house to pay the lien. Naturally, banks are the people in the best position to make money in that market. The banks hold the liens because, rather than acquire the property at auction, they can force the homeowner to make interest payments on that debt and then bundle these liens into new debt products they can sell like mortgages.
We’re constantly told that the protection of private property is the cornerstone of capitalism. If that is true, then we are not in a capitalist economy because, obviously, private property is not protected here. Instead, debt and debt service is the priority and it siphons capital away from the poor, working and middle class at an increasing rate. This is approaching a pre-Capitalist economy like Tsarist Russia or Early Modern France.
As far as Biden’s approach, it will be telling if he’s elected whether he will follow through on his corporate taxes or his seemingly meager student loan forgiveness plan. As far as that student loan plan, has anyone seen exactly what number of students or what percentage would benefit from it?
Biden has recommended canceling federal student debt in the following instances:
If you attended a public college or university. Attendees of private HBCUs and additional MSIs would also be eligible.
If you used the loans for undergraduate tuition. Graduate student debt would not be canceled under Biden’s proposal.
If you[r family] earn less than $125,000. Biden’s plan references a phase-out of this benefit but does not offer further details.
Biden also supports forgiving $10,000 for all federal student loan borrowers as COVID-19 relief.
Graduate student debt would not be cancelled? Ph.D.’s are the people we need to have better options when they leave college. We don’t want them to simply take the jobs that will allow them to make their loan payments.
I think Biden is pretty likable. He always comes off as a genuine and decent guy. His problem for me is that he doesn’t come off like much of a leader. He’s like a really nice grandpa. He’s definitely more of a status quo candidate, but since my options are him or Trump it’s still a no contest. I’ll take Biden and hope that a Dem Senate comes with him and that they can actually get a few things done over the next 2 years. Kill the fillibuster, pass some level of police reform (I know it won’t be enough, but I’ll take something over nothing), pass the voting right act (again), try to force through statehood for DC and Puerto Rico. Do I think it’ll happen? Not really, I don’t trust the Dems to actually be forceful, but it’s the only hope this country has right now.
he’s definitely not off-putting in the way Hillary was a woman
Also fair.
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