I wonder who’ll be next week’s Prime Minister?
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Sorry (not sorry). I’m mid-way through my first bottle of red for the night. Loving the exit poll, but, … seriously … Reform … WTAF …
Reform have been second in most (all?) seats declared so far, which is concerning.
Fuck Reform.
Thankfully it looks like they won’t get as many seats as originally forecast last night.
It’s been tough this morning seeing such luminaries as Jacob Rees Mogg and Penny Mordaunt lose their seats, but I’m sure I’ll get over it.
One interesting aspect of this election is that I think the UK is moving a little towards the continental European model of having more parties with minority representation in government.
I know that the FPTP system is partly designed to avoid that, but even within those constraints I think we’re going to end up with a parliament that has a more diverse range of smaller parties.
I don’t think it’s a bad thing, even when the cost of that is outfits like Reform getting a small handful of seats.
It’s been tough this morning seeing such luminaries as Jacob Rees Mogg and Penny Mordaunt lose their seats, but I’m sure I’ll get over it.
You’re already over it, aren’t you?
Over what?
And Truss is gone too, by just a few hundred votes. Hugely satisfying.
Rees-Mogg and Truss losing is just fantastic. Truss throwing a strop was hysterical. Braverman’s going to be the new leader now though. So that’s going to be fun.
New government! And two things would be good:
Whatever handover notes were left by Sunak’s lot, publish them. Whst’s that, payback you say? Yes, it is.
More important, and I expect to be disappointed on this one, end the toxic rhetoric around disability benefits right now.
Rees-Mogg and Truss losing is just fantastic. Truss throwing a strop was hysterical. Braverman’s going to be the new leader now though. So that’s going to be fun.
I feel like Hunt may be gunning for the leadership too.
But yeah, my main worry now is what happens with the Tories (and Reform) and whether someone like Braverman or Farage end up leading a harder-right opposition.
But I think the lesson for the Tories should be the opposite, they need to move closer to the centre again if they want to recapture support. So Hunt may be in with a chance, depending on which way the Tories go.
I went to bed about three last night, as the results were starting to come in faster. But my constituency hadn’t declared and I was bracing for yet another Tory hold when I got up but:
This is how badly the Tories have fucked up. They’ve held this seat with comfortable majorities since its creation in 1997 (and its predecessor before then). Genuinely buzzing.
I, on the other hand, am still waiting for my constituency results (Basildon South & East Thurrock). Looking like Reform has taken it, but they’re going to do a full recount this morning as it appears to be on a knife’s edge. FFS 🤦🏽♂️
Interesting that the exit poll over-estimated the right wing vote (by about 10 Tories and 3x the Reform result) while underestimating the LD and Green result. And unfortunately the “discourse” for today will be largely set by the exit poll, distorting that Reform result vs the Green gains.
In other good news, the DUP lost three seats last night, though one of them went to the TUV, then even more hardline weirdo Unionist party. Unionist parties are now a minority in Northern Ireland, so get fuuuuuuuuuucked you religious shits.
I went to bed about three last night, as the results were starting to come in faster. But my constituency hadn’t declared and I was bracing for yet another Tory hold when I got up but:
This is how badly the Tories have fucked up. They’ve held this seat with comfortable majorities since its creation in 1997 (and its predecessor before then). Genuinely buzzing.
- This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by Martin Smith.
- This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by Martin Smith.
Great that even the Tories & Reform together don’t match the Lib Dem vote.
Interesting that the exit poll over-estimated the right wing vote (by about 10 Tories and 3x the Reform result) while underestimating the LD and Green result. And unfortunately the “discourse” for today will be largely set by the exit poll, distorting that Reform result vs the Green gains.
Yeah the exit poll didn’t do great in those respects. The Lib Dems have really outperformed expectations this time and people aren’t talking about that as much as I expected.
I went to bed about three last night, as the results were starting to come in faster. But my constituency hadn’t declared and I was bracing for yet another Tory hold when I got up but:
This is how badly the Tories have fucked up. They’ve held this seat with comfortable majorities since its creation in 1997 (and its predecessor before then). Genuinely buzzing.
- This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by Martin Smith.
- This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by Martin Smith.
Great that even the Tories & Reform together don’t match the Lib Dem vote.
Yeah and a little surprising to be honest. I’ve just looked into it more and the predecessor to my constituency was “Tewkesbury & Cirencester” from 1918 – 1997 and before that was “Tewkesbury” broadly as is. The last time any of those iterations had a Liberal (or any non-Conservative/Unionist) MP was the 1880s. Mad.
Interesting that the exit poll over-estimated the right wing vote (by about 10 Tories and 3x the Reform result) while underestimating the LD and Green result. And unfortunately the “discourse” for today will be largely set by the exit poll, distorting that Reform result vs the Green gains.
Yeah the exit poll didn’t do great in those respects. The Lib Dems have really outperformed expectations this time and people aren’t talking about that as much as I expected.
It’s almost as if consent is being manafactured in real time.
Maybe Ed Davey can raise their profile by skydiving into Downing Street during Starmer’s debut speech as PM.
Fortunately, the entire stinking edifice that was the Rwanda policy is now dead:
I mean, is it though? Labour has mainly just said it’s not cost effective, not that they don’t want to do it.
I mean, is it though? Labour has mainly just said it’s not cost effective, not that they don’t want to do it.
They’ve said both.
I, on the other hand, am still waiting for my constituency results (Basildon South & East Thurrock). Looking like Reform has taken it, but they’re going to do a full recount this morning as it appears to be on a knife’s edge. FFS 🤦🏽♂️
I just saw that this seat turned Reform (by a margin of less than 100 votes). Commiserations.
I mean, is it though? Labour has mainly just said it’s not cost effective, not that they don’t want to do it.
They’ve said both.
I reckon it is, the problem is, Labpur are operating in a media environment where everyone is gunning for them, all the time. Thus, for campaigning, there is very cautious language. They got away with that due to the government being crap.
But, going with a notoriously wasteful, international law breaking policy? No, I don’t see them doing that.
I, on the other hand, am still waiting for my constituency results (Basildon South & East Thurrock). Looking like Reform has taken it, but they’re going to do a full recount this morning as it appears to be on a knife’s edge. FFS 🤦🏽♂️
I just saw that this seat turned Reform (by a margin of less than 100 votes). Commiserations.
Thanks. Deeply embarrassing. Not entirely unexpected given the socio-demographics of the area, but depressing as hell.
Yeah, that sucks all right.
Huffpo saying they need to make an AI Biden to give people the idea he is strong and effective. :)
Honestly it is best to assume these days anything could be AI. But I think pretty much everyone realizes Biden is a frail old man, they can’t change that perception, as much as they desire to lie to everyone about it.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/opinion-joe-biden-campaign-ai_n_668482b9e4b038babc7d56f2
I mean, is it though? Labour has mainly just said it’s not cost effective, not that they don’t want to do it.
They’ve said both.
Fair enough.
Also, Timpson as Prisons Minister is a great pick.
I, on the other hand, am still waiting for my constituency results (Basildon South & East Thurrock). Looking like Reform has taken it, but they’re going to do a full recount this morning as it appears to be on a knife’s edge. FFS 🤦🏽♂️
I just saw that this seat turned Reform (by a margin of less than 100 votes). Commiserations.
Thanks. Deeply embarrassing. Not entirely unexpected given the socio-demographics of the area, but depressing as hell.
Also annoying as it means Reform have one more seat than the Greens now, which can be used as (hollow) justification for them inevitably getting more air time than them on everything.
I mean, is it though? Labour has mainly just said it’s not cost effective, not that they don’t want to do it.
They’ve said both.
Fair enough.
Also, Timpson as Prisons Minister is a great pick.
- This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by Martin Smith.
A follow-up on the Rwanda scheme:
Also, Timpson as Prisons Minister is a great pick.
He was a shoe-in for the role really, I think he’ll be a key figure.
Seeing the two debate just makes me say “Why does it come down to these two as choices?” and also “Why haven’t the Dems gotten younger?” The last relatively young Dem candidate the constituents looked up to was Obama.
But I do see older Dems wanting to hold on to their place a bit too long.
The Hilarys, the Elizabeth Warrens, Joe Biden, they want in when the whole Dem party would be better off
mentoring younger Dems in the public eye. Even Bernie Sanders and his message would have been better served
if the baton was passed to a younger voice to inspire the constituency.
Shame.
Also, Timpson as Prisons Minister is a great pick.
He was a shoe-in for the role really, I think he’ll be a key figure.
Booo. Booo. Down with this, Dave.
On the other end of the scale, 400 MPs and Starmer’s giving expenses cheating, DNA-hoarding former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith a peerage to be education secretary.
A reformer elected president. Hope this has some positive effects.
In certain ways Iran is a country to be learned from. They’re very harsh towards dissidents which is bad, but in many ways they’re more sane than we are. And they managed to withstand Western sanctions and meddling and proxy war for decades.
Fascinating to see so many right-wingers on the interview circuit this morning questioning Labour’s mandate on the basis of vote share rather than the huge majority of seats they won on the basis of FPTP.
Weirdly I don’t remember them bringing up their passion for reforming the electoral system over the last 14 years, I wonder why it’s only coming up now.
"End of quote." pic.twitter.com/gwCXkca4xX
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) July 1, 2024
Biden reading “end of quote” from the teleprompter….
Isn’t it quite normal to do that when quoting verbally, to denote where the quote ends?
Isn’t it quite normal to do that when quoting verbally, to denote where the quote ends?
I think so. But then I’m always baffled by the people who say “quote unquote WHATEVER THE QUOTE IS” instead of “quote WHATEVER THE QUOTE IS unquote”.
Good news from France tonight, where it seems like the support for the far-right in the parliamentary elections hasn’t been as strong as expected. Let’s hope the votes match up to the exit polls.
Good news from France tonight, where it seems like the support for the far-right in the parliamentary elections hasn’t been as strong as expected. Let’s hope the votes match up to the exit polls.
The various left-wing parties entered a voting pact where only the candidate from each party with the most votes in each constituency in the first round remained in the running for the second. Now neither of the three broad voting blocs – left, centre or right has enough seats to form the new government, and sadly centrism has a long history of siding with the right to screw over the left, but hopefully that won’t happen here?
but hopefully that won’t happen here?
Dare to dream!
France left wing leader Melenchon who might be up for prime minister wants talks with Putin. Also, he is a certified nutter. Interesting weeks ahead in France.
France left wing leader Melenchon who might be up for prime minister wants talks with Putin. Also, he is a certified nutter. Interesting weeks ahead in France.
It’s a good thing there’s no massive sporting event coming up that they’ll have to deal with as well😬😬..
I read a bit somewhere, can’t find it now, that said France’s electoral system was made for big parties which win comfortable majority votes. I think Macron’s party has already ruled out a coalition with Melenchon, as he has ruled out Le Pen, so no one could form a majority coalition if that stays true.
These voting blocs are confusing. The left wing “popular front” consists of several very different left wing parties, and it is not clear right now as far as I have seen how many seats in parliament each of those parties get.
Yeah, I dunno how they’ll figure a way out of this one. But still, it’s good news that the left alliance got the biggest vote.
In the popular vote the left actually lost considerably, they have 25 % and the Front National 37 %. But the electoral system gives them more seats because they ended up number one in more localities.
26.9% actually (to 37.3), but it’s a fair point. Especially given that the 2022 left-wing coalition got almost the same percentage of the popular vote (25.66). So yeah, it’s not like the mood of the French voters has changed drastically, it’s just a strategic victory. And one that won’t mean shit if they can’t form a government.
Every country in the EU without nuclear weapons is a vassal state of the US.
So far George Clooney and Rob Reiner have gone on record. A few Dems have said that Biden continuing will affect their numbers.
It’s…
A blurb on the news said Trump has a healthy lead in the polls in “all the swing states Biden would need to secure a victory”
Biden needs to drop out before Friday at noon (I picked that out of the blue), for the Democrats to have a chance.
It’s not going to get better for him. Everyone dealing with a parent that shows the same signs will not believe it’s a “bad day” as they’ve seen things get worse. He’s done.
The democrats do need a slap in the face and to burn for 4 years to get better, because allowing it to get to this point is just a fucking shitshow.
Admittedly, another 4 years of Trump is a scary, scary thought.
End of the Decade shows in late in 2029 will be a riveting horror show.
Hopefully we all learn from this…
The question is: is anyone really gonna vote for Kamala Harris if Biden steps down?
No, that’s a big mistake.
My opinion, but I’ve read somewhere the numbers support staying the hell away from her.
The “think tank” needs to pull a rabbit out if a hat, and quick. If they can’t find a proper candidate, grab an outspoken actor. Clooney, what are you doing for the next 4 years?…
The question is: is anyone really gonna vote for Kamala Harris if Biden steps down?
That’s the big problem, isn’t it? There’s better potential candidates, but it’ll be hard to get past Kamala. And there’s the money thing, too – apparently, the funds they’ve collected for the campaign up to this point can be easily transferred to her because she’s on the ticket as VP anyway, but it’d be a much more difficult process with another candidate.
Transcript from the most recent Trump rally:
Who could replace Biden as Democratic nominee?
I think Harris is doing a little bit better than Biden in the polls. There is not really a good excuse not to let her do it.
Still the debate hasn’t really crashed Biden in the polls (not yet anyway). I think for many voters who choose Biden they do so not because of any positive attributes of Biden himself, they choose him because he is not Trump.
The question is: is anyone really gonna vote for Kamala Harris if Biden steps down?
I’ve seen Michelle Obama’s name mentioned.
The question is: is anyone really gonna vote for Kamala Harris if Biden steps down?
I’ve seen Michelle Obama’s name mentioned.
Which is nonsense really. As nice as she is, she’s had no experience in political office beyond being the President’s wife.
The question is: is anyone really gonna vote for Kamala Harris if Biden steps down?
I’ve seen Michelle Obama’s name mentioned.
Which is nonsense really. As nice as she is, she’s had no experience in political office beyond being the President’s wife.
Neither did Trump, and she is far more intelligent than he is.
The question is: is anyone really gonna vote for Kamala Harris if Biden steps down?
I’ve seen Michelle Obama’s name mentioned.
Which is nonsense really. As nice as she is, she’s had no experience in political office beyond being the President’s wife.
Neither did Trump, and she is far more intelligent than he is.
Yeah, but I don’t think the answer to “this guy is completely unqualified for office and has no hands-on political experience” is to go “and nor does this woman but isn’t she lovely?”
Well Michelle Obama could probably do anything Biden is currently doing, I don’t think Biden is in charge of very much at this point, his team probably runs most things for him.
Considering how incredibly normal the American right has been about Michelle Obama thus far, I can’t imagine why she’d even consider running.
So yesterday at the NATO conference Biden called Harris “vice-president Trump” and introduced Zelensky as “president Putin”.
At this point you can only hope he’s playing a Columbo-esque long game, and he’s going to turn around at the end of the next debate and say to Trump: “by the way, just one more question…”
Considering how incredibly normal the American right has been about Michelle Obama thus far, I can’t imagine why she’d even consider running.
To save the country from fascism?
Considering how incredibly normal the American right has been about Michelle Obama thus far, I can’t imagine why she’d even consider running.
To save the country from fascism?
There are other people polling higher than Trump right now, including Kamala Harris. Also, Michelle Obama has repeated said she has no interest in running for office at all.
In the last 24 hours Biden called Kamala Harris “vice president Trump”, he caled Zelensky “president Putin” and he said he is going to put Japan and Korea back together again.
Considering how incredibly normal the American right has been about Michelle Obama thus far, I can’t imagine why she’d even consider running.
To save the country from fascism?
There are other people polling higher than Trump right now, including Kamala Harris. Also, Michelle Obama has repeated said she has no interest in running for office at all.
Agreed, I was being a bit glib. Sorry about that. I agree Kamala Harris wouldn’t be a bad candidate.
Trump was just shot at
Trump has blood on his ear as he’s rushed off the stage
Pennsylvania rally
A lot of shots, 8-11?
Trump clutched his right ear like he was hit, but was conscious as he left (bleeding)
__________________________
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1d31jeyzlo
The shooting, which sent the country on edge on the even of the Republican National Convention, left one spectator dead, two others critically injured and sparked chaos at the event. As the former president spoke, shots crackled and Trump, hand to his ear, dropped to the ground where he was surrounded by agents before behind hustled off the stage into a waiting car amid the screams and confusion of the crowd.
Jesus fuck. Oh God, I hope this doesn’t give him a huge boost. Bloody hell.
The shooting, which sent the country on edge on the even of the Republican National Convention, left one spectator dead, two others critically injured and sparked chaos at the event. As the former president spoke, shots crackled and Trump, hand to his ear, dropped to the ground where he was surrounded by agents before behind hustled off the stage into a waiting car amid the screams and confusion of the crowd.
Jesus fuck. Oh God, I hope this doesn’t give him a huge boost. Bloody hell.
My first thought is that this is a false flag operation.
Looking forward to Biden denouncing yesterday’s attack on Abraham Lincoln
Well at least no one will be talking about senile Biden anymore and there’s no chance he’ll stand down after this🙄.
This will definitely boost Trumps campaign. That image of him covered in blood surround by secret service, will be on a million t shirts by Monday.
Someone shooting at Trump and winging him is pretty much the worst possible outcome.
That’s s sad mess but not one I’m surprised by.
Looking forward to Biden denouncing yesterday’s attack on Abraham Lincoln
Fun fact: When Joe Biden was born, it was closer to the last day Abraham Lincoln was president than the first day when he would be president!
The shooting, which sent the country on edge on the even of the Republican National Convention, left one spectator dead, two others critically injured and sparked chaos at the event. As the former president spoke, shots crackled and Trump, hand to his ear, dropped to the ground where he was surrounded by agents before behind hustled off the stage into a waiting car amid the screams and confusion of the crowd.
Jesus fuck. Oh God, I hope this doesn’t give him a huge boost. Bloody hell.
My first thought is that this is a false flag operation.
I don’t think so. With all the rhetoric against Trump this was bound to happen. Stochastic terrorism.
Could be a nutcase who identified with any of the groups that was against Trump really.
Funny how a lot of people who didn’t believe in Stochastic Terrorism when people like Chaya Raichik were influencing bomb threats to children’s hospitals sure do now.
Eh it’s obviously real and they have been doing it against Trump all along. The problem with the term is what to do about it? You can’t lock up anyone who says anything bad about anyone else. Should it be illegal to criticize transgender surgery on minors? I guess someone like you might say yes.
So Kathy Griffin is a dumb hack, and a bad person for doing this, but should she be in jail for doing something like this? I think that goes too far. Same for libsoftiktok.
It’s not staged, three people were shot, one of them is dead.
Shooter was a 20 year old Republican.
No one knows how this plays out.
At the same time Trump is the leader of “screw your feelings, get over it” politics. While, of course, being emotional and never getting over anything.
Trump will be acting like a right hard man now that he’s survived an assassination attempt. But I’ve heard that Biden stays up past 9:00pm some nights…Yep, you read that right. 9..P..M😎🇺🇸🫡.
Someone shooting at Trump and winging him is pretty much the worst possible outcome.
- This reply was modified 5 months ago by Martin Smith.
Honestly, I think him actually being killed would have been the worst case scenario. His base would go absolutely insane and done who knows what. He would have become a martyr to his supporters. I think that whatever tiny thread was holding them back would be gone.
This headline by Forbes is a chef’s kiss expression of racism, and it’s written by a DEI expert. Fucking crazy.
Someone shooting at Trump and winging him is pretty much the worst possible outcome.
- This reply was modified 5 months ago by Martin Smith.
Honestly, I think him actually being killed would have been the worst case scenario. His base would go absolutely insane and done who knows what. He would have become a martyr to his supporters. I think that whatever tiny thread was holding them back would be gone.
So true about that martyr scenario. This is not a joke. We have to see how the next few weeks go. This attempt just might reinforce the Trump followers and usher him into the WH again.
I get where you’re coming from with the martyr thing, but the MAGA movement without Trump to focus on would (will eventually, presumably) flounder and devolve into chaotic in-fighting. This will strengthen all their resolve.
Eh it’s obviously real and they have been doing it against Trump all along.
And Trump was an absolute master of this even back then against Obama.
The Republicans have been stoking the flames of hysteria for decades, which has recently led to the attack against Pelosi’s husband, that pizza place shooting, and the attack on the Capitol.
I do agree that the rhetoric against Trump has been similar, that the Left has been prophesying the end of democracy in America if Trump gets re-elected. The thing is, with Project 2025 there is documentation of Trump’s crowd doing their best to actually do that, and the extent to which he has already hurt women in the US is quite horrifying.