Let’s reboot this thing. Have at thee.
Political Discussion In The 20s
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I don’t really have a preference for Biden or Sanders, they’re both flawed candidates. Sanders strikes me as pretty naive and with a limited understanding of economy, and Biden as another run-of-the-mill politican. Biden might be better for the US, but worse on foreign entanglements.
It’s so odd that the US still only has 2 relevant political parties. There must be room for a few more. Like the regular democrats, regular Republicans (the Jeb! wing of the party), the Trump party, the Bernie party, and a serious libertarian party. I think remaining stuck in these two problem riddled parties is damaging for the country.
It’s first past the post voting. It always normalises to two parties holding the power by virtue of how it operates.
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I don’t really have a preference for Biden or Sanders, they’re both flawed candidates. Sanders strikes me as pretty naive and with a limited understanding of economy, and Biden as another run-of-the-mill politican. Biden might be better for the US, but worse on foreign entanglements.
It’s so odd that the US still only has 2 relevant political parties. There must be room for a few more. Like the regular democrats, regular Republicans (the Jeb! wing of the party), the Trump party, the Bernie party, and a serious libertarian party. I think remaining stuck in these two problem riddled parties is damaging for the country.
Theres a pretty good freakanomics on the political duopoly and how both parties act a bot like coke/pepsi to dominate tge landscape. It goes all the way back to the Whig party. Its pretty interesting.
I think the episode is called The Greatest Duopoly or something.
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It’s so odd that the US still only has 2 relevant political parties. There must be room for a few more. Like the regular democrats, regular Republicans (the Jeb! wing of the party), the Trump party, the Bernie party, and a serious libertarian party. I think remaining stuck in these two problem riddled parties is damaging for the country.
If there were a viable third party candidate, then maybe.
At best a third party candidate will split the vote for a while and then fade away. To break it down:
Assume you have three candidates for President: A, B and C. A and B are left to to centre-left, while C is right wing.
Assume A gets 25% of the vote, B gets 35%, and C gets 45%. C wins because they got more votes than anyone else, right? But more people voted for anyone but C.
The next election comes along, and the left-leaning voters decide to get tactical. This time A gets 20% of the vote, B gets 40%, and C gets 45%. At this point it’s clear that more people will vote for B than A in general, and B can best C. Eventually A’s support drains to B to the point that they can beat C, and you no longer have a three-party system. If A begins to rise again, or D comes along or whatever, the best they can do is drain enough votes from B or/and C to make one of them go away.
That’s in a direct election for a single candidate, like the US Presidency. In a parliamentary system it’s more viable to have smaller parties under this sort of voting system, but the best they can do is provide spoilers that prevent one of the larger parties from taking power – like in the UK where the SNP’s rise as regional representation has had a lot to do with Labour’s downfall, how Northern Ireland has a political landscape totally unlike either the Republic or mainland UK, and how the Lib Dems secured the Tory victory in 2010.
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That’s in a direct election for a single candidate
Yeah, I think that is the important thing. Since this one person has so much power it is important that your party gets that position, meaning people will vote tactically. In a parliamentary system A and B together even though they’re smaller than C can form an alliance and form the government.
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I think this seals it for Sanders.
https://twitter.com/neekolul/status/1234601269127458817?s=20
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Yeah, I dont think the swing voters will really care about Bidens past. I think the Sanders supporters do so I hope they dont stay home if Biden is the nominee…
I think the risk is a different one. I mean, the Sanders supporters and any Democrat who actually cares will come out and vote in order to get rid of Trump. That part is kind of a given. But it may not be enough.
Sanders, on the other hand, may bring out the people who are so frustrated with and removed from the political process that they usually won’t come out to vote for either of the candidate because they see them basically as the same. Two sides of the coin of corrupt Washington politics and all that. I think that was the reason why people didn’t care to go out and vote for Hillary, not that she wasn’t Sanders – and the same could well happen with Biden. But it could be different for Sanders.
(“That horse dead yet?” – “Not sure, I think you better beat it again!”
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Yeah, I dont think the swing voters will really care about Bidens past. I think the Sanders supporters do so I hope they dont stay home if Biden is the nominee…
I think the risk is a different one. I mean, the Sanders supporters and any Democrat who actually cares will come out and vote in order to get rid of Trump. That part is kind of a given. But it may not be enough.
Sanders, on the other hand, may bring out the people who are so frustrated with and removed from the political process that they usually won’t come out to vote for either of the candidate because they see them basically as the same. Two sides of the coin of corrupt Washington politics and all that. I think that was the reason why people didn’t care to go out and vote for Hillary, not that she wasn’t Sanders – and the same could well happen with Biden. But it could be different for Sanders.
(“That horse dead yet?” – “Not sure, I think you better beat it again!”
Most Americans arent politocally literate.
The premise that Democrats will turn up to beat Trump because they can vote, whether it be for establishmemt politics or otherwise, is flawed.
American politics is voyeuristic. People will vote on a whim at the last minute. Some might vote consideted but not all.
Honestly, lets not homogenise any facet of the party and expect we know exactly what they will do. We dont.
I think Bernie as a unity candidate is a nice dream. Theres no poont wheeling out the “Bernie is Americas most popular politician” line because it doesnt actually mean anything. Its coming from the people who say he definitely would have won 2016 (like the writer of Wills article). There isnt any data to suppprt this – its passion from his supporters who believe that would translate across the board if the nominee. Who knows? I certainly have my doubts.
Maybe Bernie doed galvanise those who dont usually vote but you lose some of the swing voters and some of the centre? His messsge can becone just as divisive as his supporters believes Bidens to be.
At the end of the say its about the Electoral Colleges, not sheer numbers. Doee Bernie have a chance to turn Texas blue? Is Biden in danger of losing California? Who is better in Wisconsin? Does either have s hope in Florida? Etc.
Im sure Will will have very good answers to those questions but I will reserve my personal conclusions for further study.
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Probably. But I’d rather run the candidate who doesn’t have Trump-like skeletons and excites people than the guy who at best can say he’ll bring us back to 2014. But even that’s not true because he’s further right than Obama was, that’s why Obama picked him for VP.
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I mean, the Sanders supporters and any Democrat who actually cares will come out and vote in order to get rid of Trump.
There is a very real subset of Sanders supporters who have declared that they will not vote if Sanders isn’t the nominee.
They see a non-Sanders Democrat as worse than Trump.
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Probably. But I’d rather run the candidate who doesn’t have Trump-like skeletons and excites people than the guy who at best can say he’ll bring us back to 2014. But even that’s not true because he’s further right than Obama was, that’s why Obama picked him for VP.
Yeah he’s basically Ted Cruz.
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/candidates-views-on-the-issues/joe-biden/
I don’t think there’s anything particularly distressing about this guy to be honest but I am amused by the very serious attempts to tear him down by people who were probably happy with him 8 years ago.
Sanders is the more ethical and ambitious politician, no doubt. Biden has the coalition behind him though, and that’s more important in America when you want to get things done. That’s just unfortunately how it is. That’s why senators are flocking to him because there’s political capital in being unified. It naturally goes to concerns about electoral college victories and reclaiming the Senate.
Will, to be honest, I’m not trying to poo-poo your party here. I think Sanders is a really great candidate and he would make for a very interesting and hopefully very positive and transformative presidency. But, but – but the other side of the coin is totally a legitimate side.
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These are the things to ponder and the answers are not simple. I saw polls in the rust belt that show that Sanders has a much bigger lead over Trump (in fact Biden didn’t have a lead at all but was neck and neck with Trump) but if the Dems could take Texas that wouldn’t matter and they have a better chance of doing that I think with Biden.
The reason is that I think a much larger proportion of the electorate are not viewing things as we traditionally do as left or right. The rust belt guys are voting for a big change from the status quo. It’s not as simple as 40% are left 40% are right and we target the middle and definitely win, although that has been a truism in the past.
The Obama to Trump crowd in 2016 are unlikely to be seduced by Obama’s VP who is pretty much selling his campaign on ‘more of the same’ from that era. However in other states that are shifting blue because they think Trump is awful and just want some sanity back they may well be sold on that.
I prefer Bernie but if I’m trying to look at this dispassionately both have significant risks, in different places, if selected.
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Biden doesn’t need help shoring up the black vote. He’s winning currently because of the black vote. (In S.C. he got close to 99% of it I believe) He needs help shoring up the youth and progressive vote.
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Probably. But I’d rather run the candidate who doesn’t have Trump-like skeletons and excites people than the guy who at best can say he’ll bring us back to 2014. But even that’s not true because he’s further right than Obama was, that’s why Obama picked him for VP.
Yeah he’s basically Ted Cruz.
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/candidates-views-on-the-issues/joe-biden/
I don’t think there’s anything particularly distressing about this guy to be honest but I am amused by the very serious attempts to tear him down by people who were probably happy with him 8 years ago.
Sanders is the more ethical and ambitious politician, no doubt. Biden has the coalition behind him though, and that’s more important in America when you want to get things done. That’s just unfortunately how it is. That’s why senators are flocking to him because there’s political capital in being unified. It naturally goes to concerns about electoral college victories and reclaiming the Senate.
Will, to be honest, I’m not trying to poo-poo your party here. I think Sanders is a really great candidate and he would make for a very interesting and hopefully very positive and transformative presidency. But, but – but the other side of the coin is totally a legitimate side.
8 years ago is when I became disillusioned with the Obama administration. Expanding deportations, surveillance powers, and drone bombings (there was a 5-month period where 90% of the deaths were civilians!). Not prosecuting Wall Street. Not pushing for single payer. Making endless concessions, usually before negotiations even started, to the GOP. Keeping Guantanamo open. Letting Chelsea Manning wallow in torturous solitary confinement. I was disgusted, and still am.
The center-left and the left are not two sides of the same coin. Biden’s health plan leaves 10 million uninsured. He won’t push for a Green New Deal, which our species and the biosphere desperately need. The center just doesn’t fight for or care about the working class. We have two corporate parties in this country, and that one of them is widely considered “left” is a joke.
And let me say this before you or Rory say there’s no M4A and Green New Deal anyway with a Republican-controlled senate:
First off, I don’t know why fighting Mitch McConnell tooth and nail on behalf of the working class isn’t an absolute necessity in the Democratic nominee.
Second, you guys, and moderates as a whole, need to expand your imaginations beyond cutting deals with Republicans. It doesn’t work, and we really can’t afford half-measures anymore. The cost of doing nothing or too little is too high.
We need a grassroots movement putting pressure on Republicans in their districts. They need to feel that their careers are at stake. Their lives need to become hell. This will happen regardless of whether Bernie wins the nomination or whether he or Biden beat Trump. But the White House directing and mobilizing this movement will make things much easier. Bernie has the movement, Biden doesn’t. Biden doesn’t even have the excitement of his own supporters.
Will grassroots pressure be enough? There’s a strong chance it won’t be. But limiting our imagination to what we can get Republicans to agree to absent of significant grassroots pressure has been proven not to work. It’s time for a new politics, not the same old same old that got us Trump and is killing our planet.
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The problem I have with the whole “toxic Bernie Bro” narrative is that it’s not borne out when you look at the social media landscape and what actually happened in 2016. Like I said upthread, a higher percentage of Bernie supporters voted for Clinton in 2016 than Clinton supporters voted for Obama in 2008. And yeah, there are angry and outspoken Sanders supporters online, but the same goes for Biden, Ratboy, just about every candidate. Like right now on social media, a bunch of Warren supporters, including members of her campaign are defending the choice to get tattoos that look remarkably like concentration camp serial numbers, with only a handful even realising how tone-deaf the tattoo design is.
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Yeah, I follow a lot of prominent Bernie supporters on twitter–surrogates and accounts with big followings–and they all have examples of being harassed and threatened by supporters of Biden, Hillary, and other candidates.
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Its probably true that all politicians have dick supporters, and you can introduce an element of whataboutism to this, but the things in that vox article (which i thought was written balanced and reasoned) made me feel gross. Those supporters are gross and are clearly turnung people off Bernie including potential delegates.
Yeah, but you’re still only being presented one candidate’s supporters in that article. You’ve read Chomsky, right? You know he has a whole book about this exact thing?
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This was a very bad night for Sanders. He’s done. He’ll stay in and fight because of course he will but his chance at winning the nomination just became a long shot.
And for the record, no, I am not a moderate. Like Tim my choice of candidate was Warren. I’m not impressed by Sanders, particularly because he’s not talking about how he’s going to keep any of the promises he’s making. If he wants my support he needs to explain how he’s going to deliver and he’s not.
Bernie bro’s are very real and operate in a way that other politicians supporters don’t. Sanders campaign is actively courting them too by having Sanders reps appear on chapo.
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He has plans on his website, just like Warren. But if you think trying to work around McConnell is a bust then I don’t know how Warren would’ve had a better shot.
Plus her healthcare and GND plans do that classic Dem move of making concessions before even sitting down for negotiations. Her supposed M4A plan was really a public option plan with M4A delayed in a separate bill til after the midterms–a signal she believes the public option is the best we can hope for. And her GND plan called for trillions less than Sanders’ and is less comprehensive.
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The most imaginative way I can think to pass fiercely partisan policy in a bipartisan system of governance is to drug all the Republican senators with LSD and raid the senate floor dressed as teletubbies. Theyll fucking sign anythimg into Law!
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Maybe conduct a mass kidnapping of all senators opposed and put them through a bizarre amd complicated game involving time travel ans psychological manipulation! At the end they have to sign the bill to escape Mystery Island!
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No wait – its Face/off but with McConnell and Sanders! Thats how you do it!
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YES YOU HAVE AND IM FUCKING SICK OF IT! I WANT A DIVORCE TIM!
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Every time I see Biden speak he looks lost…and he’s really the best person the Dems can come up with?
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Every time I see Biden speak he looks lost…and he’s really the best person the Dems can come up with?
No, Bernie is.
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There is one democrat who seems like a normal, pleasant person, you know who. The rest…I don’t know where they find these people. No make that two, Yang seemed alright too.
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I didn’t follow the budget live, but catching up on highlights has left me baffled.
- Economic slowdown predicted
- Taxes frozen or lowered across the board
- Eleventy billion of extra public spending
- Apparently there is a magic money tree
I have a feeling there’s a catch I’m missing
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It is Keynesian economics, borrow and spend when times are tough to create growth. If you cut back then you enter a spiral of decline.
This is the same theory that the Conservative party has been saying doesn’t work for the past decade, now it does apparently for some reason.
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Yeah that was my feeling too.
I remember seeing an interview with JLD where shr said she got fan mail from both sides of the aisle thanking her for ridiculing their opposition.
Veep has the advantage of making fun of the process of politics as opposed to party politics, which made it more universal. The Thick of it was far more obvious about which party was Labour and the Tories (again without saying it), and by actually following through on the real-world change in ruling party it was able to show they were two cheeks of the same arse in many ways.
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This was a very bad night for Sanders. He’s done. He’ll stay in and fight because of course he will but his chance at winning the nomination just became a long shot.
Yeah, so it’ll be Biden. I think Warren would overall have had a better shot at getting the nom than Bernie if the first primaries hadn’t killed her. It’s a weird way to elect a candidate; maybe the DNC should consider just doing their voting for a candidate all in one day.
So Biden. I’m sure that, gaffs or not, he’ll lead a good campaign, and with any luck he’s going to talk about beating the hell out of Trump again and Trump will gor for it and the whole thing will be decided in a Thunderdome deathmatch.
I’m sure Biden would make for an alright President, too. Bit sad not to see the progressive turn that Warren or Sanders would’ve given the Democrats, but it is what it is. Maybe there’ll be a chance for that once Trump is gone; currently I suppose too many people just want thing to go back to whatever passes for normal these days.
The upside is that the existence of Sanders naturally pulled Bidens policy platform to be more progressive because he will need to speak to his supporters too.
The Democratic party is a broad church and this happens a lot. Bernie isnt the only “progressive” to get serious traction. Howard Dean and George McGovern have had serious and long lasting impact on how the party behabes. Bernie had and will too, largely because of his campsigns.
Unfortunately, as it was, neither Mondale or Kerry (who McGovern and Dean ran against) were able to prevent two term Republican presidents.
We’ll just have to see if history repeats.
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I have to say I’m quite disappointed that the Obama/Biden wing of the party is treating this is as such an issue. They’re meant to be the adults in the room, so why aren’t they acting like it? For years they’ve rightly pointed out that tens of thousands of preventable deaths per year and millions uninsured and underinsured don’t constitute a crisis and aren’t worth getting angry or uncivil about. Just a few tweaks to the system and we can bring those numbers down a little and keep the insurance industry intact. Problem solved. So what makes the coronavirus any different? It’s simply an issue of increasing access to affordable treatment. Throw a few seasoned technocrats at the problem and soon everything will be right as rain.
Now, if J.K. Rowling or Danarys Targaryen–sorry, Emilia Clarke, I know she’s just an actress, get infected, then we can start panicking. But we’re not there yet, so for now let’s try and keep things in perspective, okay?
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The upside is that the existence of Sanders naturally pulled Bidens policy platform to be more progressive because he will need to speak to his supporters too.
This is actually an important element, echoing what I said not long back about politics often being more about movements in certain arguments than always personnel.
Neoliberals sold a narrative about economics so well that centre left parties followed them for two decades or more. Liberals sold the case for gay rights so well that a Conservative PM in the UK passed gay marriage. If as looks likely that Bernie will not get elected as the candidate his arguments have already changed Biden’s platform from his days of boasting of being the most conservative Democrat in office.
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It has taken a good deal longer than it should have, but Americans have now seen the con man behind the curtain.
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COVID-19 drew the curtain aside, indeed. The NYSE and other markets revealed their true nature/ I cannot see the “huge drops” as anything other than a long, long overdue correction. It was being held up artificially by Mnuchin et alia And now, with enforced social isolation, we may finally start coming back together.
Entertainment packages are going to get purchased. Disney gets much richer.
If tested, there is no test to show you were not exposed at the testing site; which is the most likely scenario for transmission.
Old, unwell people have for decades been socially isolated, drained of all financial and food reserves, spent time alone sick waiting to die, and the social response is a shrug and people going on about their own business. Enjoy the taste of your own medicine, fuckers.
All things considered, I should be working right now, if nothing else directing students and such on what to do. But it will be next week when I’m really needed, when people start going nuts from quarantine and begin acting out on one another. Domestic violence and “welfare checks” by the police (for mostly suicidal folks) have already doubled. But, society did not help me properly, made me fight instead, and now is down one nurse/therapist. Caveat emptor.
If one did not take a flu vaccine, one never developed immunity to that/those strains of the flu.one is as vulnerable to the flu as everybody is to COVID-19. Same thing. Just new, attacking where society is vulnerable.
Do not panic. Always carry a towel.
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I have to say I’m quite disappointed that the Obama/Biden wing of the party is treating this is as such an issue. They’re meant to be the adults in the room, so why aren’t they acting like it? For years they’ve rightly pointed out that tens of thousands of preventable deaths per year and millions uninsured and underinsured don’t constitute a crisis and aren’t worth getting angry or uncivil about. Just a few tweaks to the system and we can bring those numbers down a little and keep the insurance industry intact. Problem solved. So what makes the coronavirus any different? It’s simply an issue of increasing access to affordable treatment. Throw a few seasoned technocrats at the problem and soon everything will be right as rain.
Now, if J.K. Rowling or Danarys Targaryen–sorry, Emilia Clarke, I know she’s just an actress, get infected, then we can start panicking. But we’re not there yet, so for now let’s try and keep things in perspective, okay?
There is a common narrative that getting angry won’t help and you need to be nice and kind and negotiate with the opposition to get what you want in politics.
And to be quite brutal, it’s a load of bollocks.
Every major upheaval in modern society came either as a result of civil unrest or violence, or the threat of same. Women didn’t get the vote by asking nicely, they did so by refusing to work, by causing unrest up to and including a bombing campaign. The civil rights movement is lauded for being non-violent, but King’s non-violence was steeped in the threat of you deal with him or the movement does get violent.
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Further to Wills point:
This is a good result.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/13/coronavirus-testing-katie-porter/
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the will of the people
Sometimes people are stupid though.
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I am so weary of all the stupid.
Set misogyny aside, I think it’s where the likes of Warren went wrong. She over-prepared and had a plan for everything but then that’s viewed as patronising and condescending.
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It has taken a good deal longer than it should have, but Americans have now seen the con man behind the curtain.
It’s a good article, but I doubt that they have.
Trump will keep lying and lying and his fans will keep believing him, and the partisans will stick with him too because he now is the Republican Party.
I still think and hope that there will be a reckoning for the Republicans, when this is all over and people look back at Trump and don’t understand how he could have happened.
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The Trump Presidency Is Over
It has taken a good deal longer than it should have, but Americans have now seen the con man behind the curtain.
Every few months, one publication or another comes out with an editorial like this. The sad reality is that Trump will glide through this the way he has through other death-knells. Remember young children being separated from their families on the Mexican border? Remember the illegal actions that brought impeachment charges against him? Remember him making fun of a journalist with disabilities?
You and I may see the con man behind the curtain. But “America” continues to see the savior who is Making It Great Again.
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Sometimes people are stupid though.
Interesting Tommy Lee Jones did both of these quotes:
Kay : A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it.
Thaddeus Stevens : Shit on the people and what they want and what they’re ready for. I don’t give a goddamn about the people and what they want. This is the face of someone who has fought long and hard for the *good* of the people without caring much for any of ’em. And now I look a lot worse without my wig.
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Perhaps ironic and perhaps not. Thaddeus Stevens was the Bernie Sanders of his age, more anti-slavery then Lincoln.
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Remember young children being separated from their families on the Mexican border? Remember the illegal actions that brought impeachment charges against him? Remember him making fun of a journalist with disabilities?
The crucial thing there is none of them are affected by any of it. They are issues that require empathy. If they are several generations in the US then they know separation at the border will never affect them.
If they are laid off because the economy tanks or their granny dies from Covid-19 that changes the paradigm massively. To see an example is when George W Bush’s ratings fell off the steepest cliff known to man when the 2008 financial crisis hit.
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At the same time, if Trump somehow manages to get it together, disasters are always great for the leaders in power. You get to go out and do photo-ops with brave rescuers and whatnot, and all every voter wants to do in difficult times is to cling to stability.
In 2002, Schröder got really lucky because there was a huge flood and he profited massively from this.
So yeah, maybe this is the moment when being Trump breaks Trump’s neck. Because it doesn’t seem like he is in any way capable of providing people with the support they need in times of crisis. Must be difficult when you can’t even imagine the concept of empathy, let alone have it.
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