.This is the thread for non-political news and events.
German police detain suspect after deadly shooting outside synagogue
Two people were killed in a shooting in the eastern German city of Halle on Wednesday and police said they had detained one person.
Mass-selling daily Bild said the shooting took place in front of a synagogue, and that a hand grenade was also thrown into a Jewish cemetery. An eyewitness told n-tv television that a perpetrator had also fired shots into a kebab shop in Halle.
Going back to normal, going back to normal….? No, I don’t think so.
Don’t buy that anyone can see what the world’s going to be like afterwards except that it won’t be “just get back to normal”.
When Christel’s sister died last year, she said her life would never be the same again. I told her she was correct. What she would have to do is find a “new normal”.
After this crisis has passed, we will all be finding a “new normal”.
Are the politicians in Malaysia wearing masks like they told the people to do?
In Austria, they’ve been very good at making a point of this, at least in press conferences:
There’s a bit of this going on. People in positions of power returning to country homes when it’s not supposed to be allowed.
Are the politicians in Malaysia wearing masks like they told the people to do?
I don’t really know. They haven’t been in the televised daily press conferences, although they are spaced far apart with the podiums.
Whether they do out and about I don’t know, I could only find one picture of a minister and he was (but the distancing is poor).
It’s just more acceptable in this region to wear them, many do when travelling even without Covid so it’s probably not as big a deal of a request as it may seem to western eyes. Before they added it to the list of requirements I went to the supermarket and 90% of the queue were wearing one anyway voluntarily.
Fair enough. Personally I am okay with the minor temporary inconvenience of a mask if it prevents my 79 year old mother in law dying on her own, with at best the chance for her grandchildren that adore her to say goodbye over a Skype screen as she’s unconscious and intubated.
Different strokes and all that but that’s of a greater concern to me right now.
The mask thing is a bit of a funny one, the advice is changing by the day but the WHO is currently not recommending that a mask is necessary if you are healthy, unless you are caring for someone infected.
But having said that obviously it’s not a difficult thing to do even if not strictly necessary for protective purposes for someone in good health, and if it helps reduce the risk of infection spreading, even by just a little, whether blocking a cough or a sneeze or whatever, then it doesn’t feel like a particularly onerous precautionary step to take.
I was told one of the reason the WHO has been loathe to officially recommend masks is a shortage of them for medical workers who need them far more.
I’ve looked at a few reliable medical sources on this and it seems the main benefit is if asymptomatic people are wearing them it contains droplets from the atmosphere that can travel a couple of metres (hence where the 2 metre gap advice has come from). They don’t even need to sneeze or cough but will spread it naturally by breathing.
It doesn’t do as much in comparison if you haven’t had it and use it for protection.
So really as nobody knows if they are an asymptomatic carrier or not its effect is greatly reduced unless you create a culture where everyone pretty much is wearing one. It’s purely anecdotal right now but in East Asia where that often is the case they’ve had a lot more success in containing the spread than Europe and North America where it isn’t. It is perfectly possible that has nothing at all to do with it.
My last sentence may have been hyperbole 
The rest I stand by.
I think when you have fronted a high-profile public campaign urging people to stay at home and not undertake any non-essential travel then you’re inevitably going to come in for criticism and accusations of hypocrisy when you don’t follow that advice yourself.
Whether it was necessary for her to resign is a slightly different argument and one that’s more to do with how we respond to poor conduct in public office these days, but even if you can argue that what she did wasn’t directly harmful to anyone I still think it’s hard to defend it as a sensible thing for her to do in her position.
To be honest I agree with you when it comes to the risk in that case David. I think the problem is people don’t like hypocrisy and she deliberately broke a handful of rules she’s told everyone to abide to on TV and in print.
I do also see from some of my friends a genuine concern with second home use. In rural West Wales where they are people weren’t going for the weekend but moving from cities planning to stay for the duration. That means they’ll have to use the local shops etc and those areas have really small medical capacity. An influx of people settling in out of season, possibly carrying the disease from hotspots like London and Birmingham could knock them over the edge. So I don’t think it’s solely jealously at the luxury of having two places.
Similarly with the national parks stuff, there is no risk of lone walkers in half empty car parks. The problem is in the opening weekend everyone took it to be a holiday and these sports were heaving. Taken in isolation the policing looks completely daft but the problem may be that if you say car 1 can do it then cars 2-25,000 can.
It’s the same as the police shaming people walking in the Peak District. They drove, isolated in cars, and walked in thousands of acres of countryside, further away from each other than if they were getting their exercise on city streets. It’s just a petty, meaningless application of the regulations. Why can’t they walk in the Peak District? Just because that’s why, now shut up and obey Big Brother.
In a situation like this it’s important to have clear rules about what people should and shouldn’t do in terms of leaving their homes.
Yes, that means the rules aren’t very nuanced and aren’t complex enough to take account of the huge spectrum of different circumstances in which people in the UK live, but if you want a clear set of rules that’s easy to follow and implement quickly and effectively then those are the kind of compromises you have to make.
Introducing rules with complicated caveats about who can and can’t travel and what is and isn’t safe would make the whole thing much more difficult to implement and police, everyone would end up convincing themselves that whatever travel they wanted to undertake was sensible and risk-free, far fewer people would follow the rules properly and the lockdown would end up nowhere near as effective as it has been.
I’m of the opinion that if you have power, you’re held to higher standards than those who don’t, both because you’re meant to be setting an example for everyone with your behaviour and because power is meant to a responsibility.
Depending on how long it lasts, I think mask wearing has a considerable emotional impact.
It can do and I’d prefer not to but for me personally it’s temporary, culturally here it’s not as big a deal and it’s small thing if it helps.
I also don’t see it being something ordered for nefarious purposes by autocratic regimes, with the growth in face recognition on our streets it’s the last thing they want. Every piece of legislation in recent years has been demanding the opposite, no burqas, no helmets in public places etc.
It’s the same as the police shaming people walking in the Peak District. They drove, isolated in cars, and walked in thousands of acres of countryside, further away from each other than if they were getting their exercise on city streets.
It’s inconsistent, but one rationale used here to defend discouraging traveling far from home is that you’re increasing the likelihood of accidents. That could occupy health workers who have enough on their plates already. I think in Sydney the suggestion is you don’t drive outside of the metropolitan area (probably an hour, tops).
Someone in Victoria was fined for taking a driving lesson (from her mother, not a professional instructor). Now there’s a case to be made that if you’re isolated, and only one person in the house can drive, it’d be wise to have an additional driver in case of emergency. Additionally it’s a pretty good time to have lessons as the roads are quieter. So I think it should have been allowed.
We have literally a million extra unemployed people in the UK, and people willing to break the law in order to leave their houses, and yet this:
The first of six specially chartered flights from Romania to London will land on Thursday afternoon carrying 150 people to assist British farmers pick fruit and vegetables.
Despite a high profile “Pick for Britain” campaign appealing to students and laid-off hospitality workers to help with the harvest, not enough British workers have come forward.
The six flights were privately chartered by large UK food producers and will land between now and June.
The National Farmers Union estimates a shortage of 70,000 seasonal farm workers that has been exacerbated by the Covid 19 lockdown.
Before boarding, the prospective workers will have their temperatures checked, fill out a health questionnaire and be given masks and hand sanitiser. On arrival in the UK, they will be taken by bus to farms in East Anglia to pick lettuce.
Mark Bridgeman, the president of the Country Land and Business Association, said bringing in workers from overseas to help meet the shortfall was “the right thing to do if we want to keep the supermarkets stocked”.
What is wrong with the world? 
I thought you’d go as Bane.
I’m Bane, yes, that’s my name
I’m here to cause Covid pain
With Bane in town you’ve nought to gain,
Bane is here to cause you Covid pain!
Texas becomes first state to announce dates easing COVID-19 restrictions
AUSTIN, Texas (KTRK) — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued three executive orders Friday that outline how to reopen the state amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
The announcement from the governor has been long awaited, with Abbott adding that the state and its decisions must be guided by data and doctors.
He started Friday’s briefing with hope, noting that, “We are now beginning to see glimmers that the worst of COVID-19 may soon be behind us,” and that Texas has the second-most recoveries of all the states.
Still, many business owners and unemployed workers have been eager to hear what will be required to get on with their lives.
According to the governor, more than 1 million Texans have filed for unemployment.
When asked about unemployment benefits and states running out of money, the governor said money is still available.
“Then on top of that, we know that Congress is considering an additional program. They could be coming out as soon as May that will provide even more funding to states as needs arise,” the governor said.
“Opening Texas must occur in stages,” he continued. “First will be openings announced today that will pose minimal or no threats with COVID-19.”
Abbott said the first order will focus on establishing the Strike Force to Open Texas, which will consist of medical experts, including Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) Commissioner John Hellerstedt, MD, as Chief Medical Officer of the group.
These are some of the industry leaders the governor has assigned to the force:
Lt. Gov Dan Patrick – consulting member
Kendra Scott – Founder and CEO, Kendra Scott
Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale – Owner, Gallery Furniture
Ross Perot Jr. – Chairman, The Perot Group
Tilman Fertitta – Chairman, CEO, and sole owner, Landry’s, Inc.
Nancy Kinder – President & CEO, Kinder Foundation
James Huffines – Strike Force chairThe second executive order focuses on the retail sector and what the governor says will be the safe and strategic reopening of select services and activities in Texas.
Abbott said all retailers in Texas should be allowed to operate with to-go strategies, beginning next Friday, April 24. Under this to-go model, reopened businesses will be required to deliver items to customers’ cars, homes or other locations to minimize contact. To look up participating businesses, go to dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus.
Under this order, the governor made a major announcement about schools, saying that all classrooms will remain closed for the rest of the school year. Teachers will be allowed to go into the classroom for video instruction or to clean out classrooms.
This includes public and private schools and universities.
The third executive order focuses on nurses, doctors and staff, as well as hospital capacity and personal protective equipment, or PPE, as they relate to the COVID-19 response.
Effective April 21 at 11:59 p.m. through May 8 at 11:59 p.m., all licensed health care professionals and licensed health care facilities must continue to postpone surgeries and procedures that are not medically necessary to diagnose or correct a serious medical condition or save a patient’s life.
Exceptions can now include:
– Any procedure that would not deplete the hospital capacity or the PPE needed to cope with COVID-19
– Any surgery or procedure performed in a licensed health care facility that has certified in writing it will reserve at least 25% of its hospital capacity for COVID-19 patients and that it will not request any PPE from any public source, whether it be federal, state or local for the duration of the COVID-19 disaster.When it comes to state parks, Abbott said those will reopen on Monday, April 20. But certain guidelines must be met. Visitors will be required to wear masks and maintain social distancing. Groups larger than five cannot gather.
Still, Abbott addressed concerns that some employees may feel uneasy about returning to work, even as they are phased in.
Abbott said any employees who may be concerned about going back to work should not be coerced, but should feel safe in the workplace. He added employers have a responsibility to make sure safe practices are maintained.
Additional openings will be announced on April 27, and the third phase will be announced in May, based on input from medical advisers.
The governor stressed the phases will require “comprehensive testing and assurances of hospital readiness for COVID-19 patients. They will focus on containing the risk of resurgence of COVID-19 and protecting our most vulnerable Texans.” The opening of more venues such as restaurants and movie theaters will also be considered.
“Together, we can bend the curve. Together, we can overcome this pandemic. We can get folks back to work. We can adopt safe strategies that prevent the spread of COVID-19 and step by step, we will open, Texas,” Abbott said.
The governor’s announcement comes on the heels of a three phase federal plan to get back to work introduced by President Trump on Thursday.
It starts with limited numbers of employees returning to the office and the rest working from home, while at-risk groups continue to shelter-in-place.
The next phase allows churches, schools, gyms and restaurants to re-open with social distancing still in place.
Then finally, the third phase allows all venues to open back up with limited distancing.
Health officials worry returning too soon could set off a second wave of infections.
Health officials worry returning too soon could set off a second wave of infections.
They are correct but who needs experts?
Health officials worry returning too soon could set off a second wave of infections.
They are correct but who needs experts?
Yeah, that’s the key line there.
Lockdown continues here for another 3 weeks and then to be reassessed. They’re still reacting instead of listening to the experts. The shortage of PPE for healthcare workers is a scandal.
Health officials worry returning too soon could set off a second wave of infections.
They are correct but who needs experts?
I would think that by definition returning “too soon” would not be a good thing.
Although I’m no expert.
Here’s how Gov. Abbott plans to reopen retail businesses in Texas
AUSTIN, Texas (KTRK) — Gov. Greg Abbott on Friday began a slow reopening of Texas with orders that allow retail shops to sell items curbside, lets visitors return to state parks and puts doctors back in operating rooms after they were banned for weeks from performing nonessential surgeries.
The eased restrictions, which Abbott said will be phased in starting next week, came a day after President Donald Trump gave governors a road map for recovering from the economic pain of the coronavirus pandemic. Abbott said he would announce another phase of reopening on April 27.
The governor’s second Executive Order (GA-16) relates to the safe, strategic reopening of select services and activities in Texas. This order establishes a temporary “Retail-To-Go” model that will allow retail outlets in Texas to reopen beginning Friday, April 24. Under this model, reopened establishments are required to deliver items to customer’s cars’, homes, or other locations to minimize contact.
Employees returning to work must follow the following guidelines:
– All employees must be trained on environmental cleaning and disinfection, hand hygiene, and respiratory etiquette.
– All employees must be screened before coming into the business for new or worsening cough; shortness of breath; sore throat; loss of taste or smell; feeling feverish or a measured temperature greater than or equal to 100.0 degrees Fahrenheit; or known close contact with a person who is lab-confirmed to have COVID-19. Any employee who meets any of these criteria should be sent home.
Upon entering the business, employees must wash or sanitize hands.
All employees must wear face coverings.
– Employees must maintain at least 6 feet separation from one another.Customers who shop at the retail shops must follow the following guidelines:
– Customers may purchase items from a retail location for pickup, delivery by mail, or delivery to the customer’s doorstep, but may not enter the premises.Retail to-go:
– All payments should be done over the phone or internet, if possible, and contact should be minimized if remote payment is not available.
– Purchased items should be delivered by the employee to the backseat or trunk of the customer’s vehicle whenever possible to minimize physical contact with the customer.
– Employees must wash or sanitize their hands after each interaction with a customer, and whenever possible, must disinfect any item that came into contact with the customer.Doorstep delivery:
– All payments should be done over the phone or internet, if possible, and contact should be minimized if remote payment is not available.
– Purchased items should be delivered by an employee or third-party carrier and delivered to the customer’s doorstep. The employee or third-party carrier may not enter the customer’s house or business.Retail delivery by mail:
– All payments must be done over the phone or internet. Purchased items should be delivered by mail without customer contact.
– The customer should wash or sanitize their hands after the transaction.
So, I don’t know where the original quote came from, and I half-caught it on radio, but here’s the gist.
It seems like the parachute has been on for an eternity.
It’s done it’s job, and slowed our rate of descent.
Can we just take the fucking thing off now?
Sure, just don’t forget about that looming ground impact.
The Texas proposal Todd posted actually looks pretty sensible, as long as they are over the peak of the infections, which is something I don’t know. Numbers should be dropping consistently really for anyone to ease up but ease up we will all do in the pretty near future.
I still see a lot of people talking about ‘ when lockdown ends’ with the idea it’ll go immediately back to normal. That’s clearly not what’s going to happen from all the proposals being laid out around the world. I think it could be a very long wait for bars to open and anywhere else people gather informally. Maybe no sporting events and concerts until next year.
We could also be entering a sequence of going in and out of measures. Singapore for example had cases running pretty flat for weeks and now they’ve flared up again.
I find this YouTuber – a professor of nursing – provides some of the most informative videos on the virus and pandemic. At the beginning of this one, there are indications that the fatality rate may actually be closer to 0.6% as the infection rate may be 15 to 20 times higher than what’s been tested or diagnosed.
Testing in California that showed a very high proportion showed the antibody. They did caution though that the study hasn’t been peer reviewed and there are doubts over the accuracy of the antibody test at this time. (I was speaking to Mike and none has been fully approved in the UK and still being tested). There’s a way to go before we can be sure about these things, similarly with the blood tests in the Netherlands.
There is no doubt though that the number of cases is being dramatically under-counted. Just by dint of the shortage of testing kits and people to do them, they really are only counting people in hospital in the majority of cases.
Being able to do large scale antibody tests with a lot of confidence in the accuracy could make a dramatic change in how long this goes on.
One thing concerning me the other way though is the reports of a lot of people outside the supposed risk groups dying. People without existing conditions, as young as their 20s and 30s and the common factor is they are in close proximity to the public daily. Bus drivers, cab drivers, nurses, care home staff, doctors. It puts a lot of doubt into herd immunity ideas if ‘viral load’ makes the virus far more dangerous.
Found this paragraph from a Guardian article on post-lockdown life bemusing:
Offices
When companies reopen their workspaces, managing movement in offices will be key. In open-plan spaces, workers will need to sit further apart at rows of desks, while one report this week claimed office workers could be required to wear masks and gloves.
I get the logic but practically, at 2m distance I am not going to hear you reliably at all thus no point my even being in the office.
at 2m distance I am not going to hear you reliably at all thus no point my even being in the office.
That’s a little unfair.
We can speak up, and we can try to make this work.
Writing on paper for the hard of hearing (should have already made headway on that point a long time ago, like having a basic of sign language? ).Two Metres (6 ft.) is not something to throw the hands in the air.
We can do this, and we can make a new normal.
You’re not following me right. My role at work tends to be the one who works with systems, defangs them and render far more understandable and accessible. But, it’s a bit different when you factor in disabilities Sean, I didn’t say it couldn’t work for others – but for me, it really wouldn’t. Not with hearing loss and info processing difficulties (dyspraxia). (Nor does everyone with a hearing loss sign. Holding up paper messages? Most people’s handwriting tends to work for one person and sometimes not always for that one person.)
If this happens, meeting rooms might be fine, but reducing capacity requires more people being virtually attending.
Similarly, to reduce noise there’s an informal rule of not being too loud in the open plan space, which will have to go.
I can see people being asked to come in but it’s going to need a strong reason given the ability enabled by the tech issued a while back.
Penang state (population 1.5 million) has now had no new cases for 4 days. Tough lockdowns (we had to exercise at home, no caveats about who could go where and when) are tough to handle but if this continues until April 27th we get marked as a ‘green zone’ – free of the virus.
Not 100% sure what happens then but I’m assuming a lot of things opening up but with travel curbs remaining to keep it out.
I still see a lot of people talking about ‘ when lockdown ends’ with the idea it’ll go immediately back to normal. That’s clearly not what’s going to happen from all the proposals being laid out around the world. I think it could be a very long wait for bars to open and anywhere else people gather informally. Maybe no sporting events and concerts until next year.
I even think next year is optimistic. I’m seeing loads of bands and venues re-booking gigs for the autumn, and I don’t believe any of them will happen. I guess they have to do it as a contingency — better to book and reschedule again than not book at all and be caught out. But I do think it’s giving people a false sense of hope, whereas a bit of common sense tells you: no vaccine, no total lifting of restrictions.
I find this YouTuber – a professor of nursing – provides some of the most informative videos on the virus and pandemic. At the beginning of this one, there are indications that the fatality rate may actually be closer to 0.6% as the infection rate may be 15 to 20 times higher than what’s been tested or diagnosed.
That was a really interesting analysis. But this section (at around 10 minutes in) made me think:
“Of 146 people tested positive, 145 were asymptomatic. This means…”
… that your tests are rubbish?
Seriously, why isn’t this being questioned more? I mean, they developed this test for this brand new thing nobody has ever seen before in, like, three days, and we’re all supposed to believe it’s infallible? . I assume there is research going on somewhere into how effective current testing methods are, but you never hear anything about it, everybody in the government and media always seems to just accept that testing works.
Yeah I’m not sure how it means tests are rubbish if out of 146 people tested positive only one had symptoms. That’s probably about congruent to the data that indicates how easily this spreads.
Yeah I’m not sure how it means tests are rubbish if out of 146 people tested positive only one had symptoms.
Like, maybe only one or two are actually positive and the rest are false positives because it’s a crappy test?
Otherwise, this really is a wimpy virus. It apparently has zero effect on almost every person it infects? I mean, that’s not one death out of 146 infections that he’s talking about, it’s apparently one person with any symptoms at all.
It apparently has zero effect on almost every person it infects?
A virus isn’t trying to kill the infected organism any more than I’m trying to kill the ecosystem by eating food.
Hey, Covid-19, we got a punk who feels lucky.
1% mortality means 1 death in every 100 if everyone was infected. Scale that up to the UK population of around 70m and the outcome is a six-figure death toll easy.
I don’t think David was saying that though. The numbers he’s referring to don’t suggest 1% mortality, they suggest 0.75% getting any symptoms at all and no deaths.
I don’t think they are right either. I’m okay to believe there are more asymptomatic cases than we know of because without reliable antibody tests we don’t know but that Boston data is suggesting that half of the US population has already had it and didn’t notice. It would be nice if it were true but consider me sceptical.
If it were so then the counter Q would be where has this sudden spike of deaths come from and why, if it is the same virus? What changed between then and now? The answers would be: We don’t know.
Contrary to expectations, science and maths don’t promise any kind of perfection. There some maths equations that I suppose could be argued to the perfect expression of the mathematical argument they convey but that’s about it.
Science is our best guess at the time, with evidence and proof, but with a transparency of method that allows anyone to see how they got from A to B. Questioning and scrutinising the results is part of the process.
Well, this just happened: US crude price collapses, settles at minus $37.63 a barrel
U.S. crude oil futures turned negative Monday for the first time in history as storage space was filling up, discouraging buyers as weak economic data from Germany and Japan cast doubt on when fuel consumption will recover.
Physical demand for crude has dried up, creating a global supply glut as billions of people stay home to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus.
West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery fell more than 100% to settle at negative $37.63 per barrel.
Meanwhile, international benchmark, Brent crude, which has already rolled to the June contract, traded 8.9% lower at $25.58 per barrel.The June WTI contract, which expires on May 19, fell about 18% to trade at $20.43 per barrel. The July contract was roughly 11% lower at $26.18 per barrel.
Investors bailed out of the May contract ahead of expiry later on Monday because of lack of demand for the actual oil. When a futures contract expires, traders must decide whether to take delivery of the oil or roll their positions into another futures contract for a later month.
I think this story has a lot of caveats, as it’s WTI which has its own weird rules and it’s the futures market which is all bizarre abstract speculation that makes my head hurt.
Doesn’t deny oil is dropping like a stone but a barrel of Brent Crude now is around $26, which according to my big Swedish pal in the industry is $23 more than it costs them to make it.
It’s a crazy business I didn’t fully understand before, that it is rigged to such an extent that profits are obscene. At one point, not very long back, that $3 investment was returning $120. At that peak he had a guy working with him who had a crappy admin job that was so undemanding he spent half the day on Facebook and was earning $250,000 a year.
I stopped over in Qatar last year, it’s not a great hub of efficiency or anything of note really but has the highest GDP per person in the world. Just because oil.
negative $37.63 per barrel
How do I buy them all and how soon do you think they can wire me the money?
Dear lord, this thread. How low we’ve sunk. Setting up fake accounts with real NHS staff names and pics, unaware it was being done, to sell a party line.
Regarding those 128 fake #NHS Staff accounts posting for 'Herd Mentality' and support of the Govt that were set up by @DHSCgovuk or their marketing agency …
Posts were sent using Hootsuite, a mass-posting tool. Account registered to 1 person with 4 assigned contributors. pic.twitter.com/r7fRFQaFwG
— John O'Connell (@jdpoc) April 20, 2020
Grim reading. Some of us might consider ourselves fairly cynical but we’ve got nothing on the people behind this.
Are you saying… that the face-eating leopards are eating faces? I’m shocked.
The only that really surprises me about these particular leopards is that it’s so shoddy. That girl whose likeness they most likely stole for the account “NHS Susan” has a name-tag that says clearly says “Mia”.
Are you saying… that the face-eating leopards are eating faces? I’m shocked.
The only that really surprises me about these particular leopards is that it’s so shoddy. That girl whose likeness they most likely stole for the account “NHS Susan” has a name-tag that says clearly says “Mia”.
They don’t need to put effort in to convince the people they want to convince.
Only a tiny proportion of people – maybe as few as 2% or 3% – appear to have displayed no symptoms after being infected with Covid-19, according to the World Health Organization, a finding that bodes ill for hopes that herd immunity will ease the exit from lockdown.
This contrasts violently with the over 100% the Boston numbers gave out Youtube analsyst.
I’ll admit to having become hugely irritatedby anything that veers close to the whole “it’s overblown, open the economy now” line that seems to be cropping everywhere.
Also, posting when tired isn’t a good idea so I may have misunderstood some stuff.
There’s a lot of conflicting data out there and but I would probably mean I’m the side of the WHO over a nurse YouTuber. Even if they both have about the same amount of income right now.
My question is about the spread. It makes sense to have spread so quickly as it has if there are large amounts of Asymptomatic cases.
I know there’s heaps of other reasons why the virus can spread globally in a month, and im not challenging the WHO data, I do find the discrepancy interesting though.
To be fair they’ve consistently held on to around 80% of cases being defined as ‘mild’ from way back. I know a few people who think they’ve had it but can’t confirm because it never got beyond being feeling pretty shitty so they don’t qualify for tests. The question in there is how many are truly asymptomatic, that have no idea they ever had it, it’s not a question that’s going to be answered that quickly because they definitely aren’t going to be tested under normal circumstances.
One suggestion that was made this week in the UK was to select a large town or small city, with a population of around 250,000 and do blanket testing. That would give a much better idea than the very small samples being discussed on the video Johnny shared. That Boston shelter sample for example could possibly be all young people, which would contrast hugely with say a care home where we’ve seen reports of half the residents sick and many dead.
I did consider that point and the lawyer for me yearns for a definition of Asymptomatic in the Interpretation and Definitions section of the Universal Covid-19 Blogging and Website Commentary agreement.
I’m not sure if you read it, but the link I provided (from Oxford U Medico) has an interesting breakdown of some different datasets. Some Wuhan, some Diamond Princess, etc
(sorry, I meant less like “Did you read my brilliant link you fuck!” and more like, “I’m not sure if you read it but it dovetails nicely with your comment about different datasets” , )
More like, we are all fucked and will have to stick with anti-infection measures for another fucking year. To some extent, at least.
Yes and to see that take a look at Singapore. Despite being one of the first countries infected outside of China they pretty much stopped the cases (or kept them to very small increases). Hailed as an example of lowering the curve and containing the spread.
5 days ago they were behind Malaysia in the number of cases. They are now reporting around 1000 new cases a day in a second wave and in that short time are nearly double the Malaysia total now. That’s in a very organised country with healthcare that regularly hits top spots in WHO rankings. So if it can happen there it can pretty much anywhere.
And this is after the NHS has ordered staff to stop talking about “political” issues (read: telling people to stop clapping and to start demanding the NHS be properly funded) on social media.
If I was an NHS worker I’d ask my boss, “Or what will you do… sack me?”
Correct me here but maybe we’re paying too much attention to where he says “all asymptomatic” and then “one person hospitalised”. It’s pretty to me cthat means asymptomatic at the time of testing (notwithstanding his next conclusion) If one person was hospitalised that means they developed severe symptoms AND were asymptomatic when tested I assume most of those tested probably dif developed symptoms after being asymptomatic, if paying attention to the datasets. Some may not have.
Consistent asymptomatic carriers, who never develop symptoms, is probably what the 2-3% of carriers indicates. We know that you can carry the virus before symptoms develop, mild or otherwise, those people aren’t going to fall into that category (if it’s a continuous category) but they are still an increases contagion risk factor until they develop symptoms and contain.
There are tests to detect the virus that will tell you whether a person actually has covid-19 currently, and they seem to be fairly reliable and are the ones being used by the NHS.
The ones being used now are very reliable and the NHS has a rigorous verification system in place but tests to detect the virus have been inaccurate. Bioeasy in China sent a batch to Spain that were missing positive cases and were only right around 30% of the time so got sent back.
I don’t think inaccurate detection (not antibody) tests are a problem on the whole but if you get something that returns a big statistical anomaly it can’t be 100% ruled out they got a duff batch.
David, just because Scotland is lockdown does NOT mean you are allowed to murder people.
The speed of transmission is a relevant point but the visual curve in those graphs is hugely distorted by the y axis, which jumps by a factor of 10 with each increment.
David, just because Scotland is lockdown does NOT mean you are allowed to murder people.
Not even Scottish people? 
The speed of transmission is a relevant point but the visual curve in those graphs is hugely distorted by the y axis, which jumps by a factor of 10 with each increment.
Yes, but they have helpfully added “faster” and “slower” lines, so even when numbers are going up logarithmically you can see if they are approaching the faster or slower lines. The US isn’t doubling every 3 days, whereas every country under lockdown continued to do more than that for two or three weeks.
The other aspect is the lagging data, each report of cases we have is 2 days old by the time it’s announced, today the UK will announce positive tests collated on the 20th. Deaths due to various complications of coroners and family advisement up to 9 days. The worst symptoms too often come over a week into the illness (for example Boris Johnson being hospitalised 10 days after testing positive, if he weren’t PM with the UK testing criteria he would only have been confirmed positive when admitted).
So essentially every reaction to an action is seen pretty much 2 weeks later, a spike ‘immediately’ following lockdown is reflecting the infection rate of maybe a fortnight earlier.
I would really hope that they are adjusting figures as they go along, though. I mean, if they find out they were 1000 extra deaths last week that they didn’t record, those deaths should be being added into last week’s figures and not being tacked onto today’s totals, and reflected as such in any graphs produced today. Otherwise the figures are all meaningless and always will be.
Edit: no forget that, I realise it’s not what you are actually saying.
Australia is testing great.
Therefore all other countries are shit and Australia is the new superpower.
WELCOME TO THE AUSTRALOCRACY, GENTLEMEN
I used to do a lot of work on the issues between real time and lagging data so I’m used to spotting it.
A huge one in economics is a recession. A lot of people are saying we are in a recession but it’s a measure of two quarters of negative GDP growth. So even though it’s pretty inevitable you can’t officially be in a recession before they collate the full quarter 2 data around the end of July (except for France because they had negative growth in Q42019 before the virus). So when a recession is properly defined and announced it could actually have already ended. In fact that happened in 2008 where in many countries the GDP recovered enough in the 3rd measured quarter.
One we’re used to here is comic sales, which are ordered by retailers 3 months in advance. While sales measure anticipation for a project well the reader approval for the actual product comes with the numbers for issue 4.
