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Probably quite a quiet thread at the moment I expect.
Home » Forums » The Loveland Arms – pub chat » Politics Discussion: Cynicism Always Warranted
This narrative about Putin could be in the Dems favor.
If they can tie in Tr*mp’s being in all this awe and admiration of Putin ie. Putin is the enemy/@$$hole, Tr*mp takes sides with him, so therefore…
That might cancel him out for good.
Anders, I didn’t want to belittle the suffering of the Ukrainians, but so far there seems to be some restraint. If Putin were as deranged as many are saying I think Kiev would have been bombed into oblivion. Putin is evil but I don’t think he is completely irrational, although I could be wrong.
This narrative about Putin could be in the Dems favor.
If they can tie in Tr*mp’s being in all this awe and admiration of Putin ie. Putin is the enemy/@$$hole, Tr*mp takes sides with him, so therefore…
That might cancel him out for good.
Unfortunately, Dems can’t sell a narrative for crap. Plus, too many conservatives are so dug in on their ideology that they can’t move on. And the GOP doesn’t care about the truth anyway. It’s pretty hard to fight against an opponent who lies, steals and cheats with zero shame or consequences. Lies and conspiracy theories are sadly more enticing to a lot of people than facts. Especially if those lies support your own personal narrative.
So yeah, the Dems are going to get absolutely crushed in the midterms.
Anders, I didn’t want to belittle the suffering of the Ukrainians, but so far there seems to be some restraint.
I would need a serious bribe if I were to call the invasion of a sovereign state on ludicrous ground, and attacking civilian targets in the doing so, restrained. It doesn’t matter if it’s the US invading Iraq or Afghanistan, if it’s Saudi Arabia invading Yemen, or… if it’s Russia invading Ukraine.
Restraint is not a word that comes to mind.
Anders, I didn’t want to belittle the suffering of the Ukrainians, but so far there seems to be some restraint.
I would need a serious bribe if I were to call the invasion of a sovereign state on ludicrous ground, and attacking civilian targets in the doing so, restrained. It doesn’t matter if it’s the US invading Iraq or Afghanistan, if it’s Saudi Arabia invading Yemen, or… if it’s Russia invading Ukraine.
Restraint is not a word that comes to mind.
Fair enough, I guess retraint is the wrong word in this context. Still I don’t think Putin is completely irrational, there is a rhyme and reason to his actions, even though perverse.
Fair enough, I guess retraint is the wrong word in this context
Yeah, I’d go for something like “not entirely unhinged (yet)”.
It could be a little from Column A, a little from Column B.
I wish honestly we could take a step back from the brink here. I see Boris Johnson and Liz Truss saying things that are so beligerent…saying the sanctions are to bring down the Putin regime…there needs to be a way out or we are heading straight for nuclear destruction. Is that where we want to go, for our principles?
we are heading straight for nuclear destruction
If the choice is to die slowly by inaction on climate change or die quickly because of nukes, I choose the nukes.
I wish honestly we could take a step back from the brink here. I see Boris Johnson and Liz Truss saying things that are so beligerent…saying the sanctions are to bring down the Putin regime…there needs to be a way out or we are heading straight for nuclear destruction. Is that where we want to go, for our principles?
Appeasement 2: Appease HARDER
Yes. Appeasement can work. We appeased the Soviet Union all the time.
I’m also arguing against Putin having lost his mind because this thing was planned a long time in advance, by a lot of people. This is not just Putin’s brainfart. Also Putin is not solely in charge of everything, he represents a group of insiders, and I doubt they’re all suicidal.
OK and now I’m going into meditation, enough politics.
Appeasement can work.
As can controlled fusion reactors.
Nope, we pointed thousands of nukes at the USSR for decades, fought numerous proxy wars, claiming the Cold War justified numerous dubious decisions, some of which came back to haunt the western powers post Cold War and sought to wreck their economy.
But, if you meant to refer to the staggering indulgence granted to Putin, right from the start in 1999, you’d be right to call it appeasement but this invasion of Ukraine by him proves it doesn’t work.
.
Appeasement Hard: With A Vengeance
Live Free or Appeasement Now
A Good Day to Appeasement Hard
Well, this ends with Ukraine being, if not annexed or occupied, at least under Russian control, so people are gonna have to learn to deal with it. Unless we’re cool with nukes flying of course… Although, hopefully, it’s all bravado and there are sane people somewhere still.
Honestly, the big take away here is: We need to get rid of nukes… I know, it’s practically impossible, but if there is ONE thing that we as a species need to do, it’s that… and as soon as possible, ’cause this shit is gonna keep happening, and it just takes a couple of crazy assholes and a bad day.
Honestly, the big take away here is: We need to get rid of nukes… I know, it’s practically impossible, but if there is ONE thing that we as a species need to do, it’s that… and as soon as possible, ’cause this shit is gonna keep happening, and it just takes a couple of crazy assholes and a bad day.
True – if nations have the weapons, then they have to be willing to use them. Not sure if Russia would actually use a conventional nuke in this conflict as they would be equally damaged by the fallout. It would be like one apartment tenant setting the apartment next door on fire.
Still, it’s not very serious at this point. However, once Putin sends in his buddy Steven Seagal in to handle Ukraine, then we’ll need to start worrying.
Joe Rogan Posts Fake Report of Steven Seagal Joining Russian Forces – Rolling Stone
As far as the lunatic American response to support Putin, I’ve had about enough of it.
Mitt Romney says Americans who support Putin are ‘almost treasonous’ | The Independent
This American brand of political madness has gotten particularly harmful. The greatest threat to American liberty is idiocy.
It has done real harm to people I personally know. The whole conspiracy industry is making a lot of people rich and influential, and ruining the lives of the people that buy into it. Like the stupid masks debate. One friend was going on about how the mask mandates were a threat to democracy – by which he meant liberty as no one really knows the distinction over here anymore – and I simply said “make all those same arguments, except replace the word ‘masks’ with ‘pants.'” The only difference between having to wear pants in public and having to wear masks is that even though people you meet might get sick from looking at your bare ass, they aren’t going to end up in the hospital because of it.
From Flat Earth to the stupid theories on the JFK assassination (that don’t make any more sense than the official explanation) to Qanon today, it’s making people irresponsible and the surest way to lose your freedoms is to use them irresponsibly.
However, once Putin sends in his buddy Steven Seagal in to handle Ukraine, then we’ll need to start worrying.
As far as the lunatic American response to support Putin, I’ve had about enough of it. Mitt Romney says Americans who support Putin are ‘almost treasonous’ | The Independent This American brand of political madness has gotten particularly harmful. The greatest threat to American liberty is idiocy.
On the other hand, the simplistic narrative painted by many who support Ukraine is also wrong.
It’s a weird country, and our lack of nuance is not helping. Crimea is overwhelmingly pro-Russian, yet people here still think we need to liberate it from the Russians. Nazis have been given important posts in police and other administrative functions. Ukrainian military have shelled civilians in Donbas. Zelensky has jailed or put under house arrest political opponents, like Poroshenko the previous president (who was pro-Western, not a Putin crony.)
There are several parallels with Afghanistan. Both havens for extremist militias, both flooded with weapons by the West for a noble cause.
As far as the lunatic American response to support Putin, I’ve had about enough of it. Mitt Romney says Americans who support Putin are ‘almost treasonous’ | The Independent This American brand of political madness has gotten particularly harmful. The greatest threat to American liberty is idiocy.
On the other hand, the simplistic narrative painted by many who support Ukraine is also wrong.
It’s a weird country, and our lack of nuance is not helping. Crimea is overwhelmingly pro-Russian, yet people here still think we need to liberate it from the Russians. Nazis have been given important posts in police and other administrative functions. Ukrainian military have shelled civilians in Donbas. Zelensky has jailed or put under house arrest political opponents, like Poroshenko the previous president (who was pro-Western, not a Putin crony.)
There are several parallels with Afghanistan. Both havens for extremist militias, both flooded with weapons by the West for a noble cause.
You’re absolutely right, the Ukrainian civil population deserves to die.
You’re absolutely right, the Ukrainian civil population deserves to die.
But if we understood the country and the situation better we could have averted this.
You’re absolutely right, the Ukrainian civil population deserves to die.
But if we understood the country and the situation better we could have averted this.
Yeah, but “we” didn’t, only you did. So as it stands you’re absolutely right in that the Ukrainian populations suffering is justified because of the reasons specified above.
Dude, I don’t have a clue what you’re talking about now. Are you angry at me or something?
No, I absolutely agree with you. The “weird country” of Ukraine needs to be subjugated Putin and Mother Russia. It’s the only way the injustices can be stopped. We europeans should appease Russia even more, maybe give them the Netherlands too? It’s just a handful million people huddled together in a network of bike lanes. Very weird if you ask me.
Anyway, fight suffering with suffering, that’s the way to do it! And above all, appease Russia. Putin’s not even the richest guy in the world yet.
You seem to be twisting my words into something terrible and then using it to make me look bad. It is an interesting debate strategy.
If you think I made the point anywhere it’s justified for Putin to be doing what he did, I think you’re wrong. I didn’t do that. Putin is one evil motherfucker who shouldn’t have access to any weapon including kitchen knifes. But that’s not the world we’re living in.
A good time to bury bad news?
Nope, we pointed thousands of nukes at the USSR for decades, fought numerous proxy wars, claiming the Cold War justified numerous dubious decisions, some of which came back to haunt the western powers post Cold War and sought to wreck their economy. But, if you meant to refer to the staggering indulgence granted to Putin, right from the start in 1999, you’d be right to call it appeasement but this invasion of Ukraine by him proves it doesn’t work.
Still we had respect for Russia’s red lines. We didn’t declare war on them over Afganistan, or interfere in Hungary in 1957 or Czechoslovakia in 1968. Having the Iron Curtain probably saved the world from destructions because we didn’t meddle in Eastern European communist regimes.
We are pivoting from being afraid of maskless commuters to cheerleading the way to nuclear armageddon.
Rep. Lauren Boebert heckles Biden as he talks about his late son during the State of the Union
I honestly can’t decide between her and Marjorie Taylor Greene who irks the shit out of me more.
I have to share a bit of Arjan’s caution here. In my heart I am hugely angered by Putin’s invasion but I think in reality it is a very tight area we traverse in looking at the response. Putin has crossed a line quite obviously here from self enrichment to some ideological vision and that frightens me a lot more. A narcissistic or greedy leader is always much easier to deal with.
While part of me is yearning for Ukraine to fight back I also fear any humiliation or lack of progress for Putin may drive him to anger and further extremes. If it weren’t for a nuclear capability everything changes, I would send in NATO air cover, I think the huge conscript model Russia have worked in WW2, sending in an endless stream of cannon fodder until Germany could take no more, but would get destroyed by US, French and UK military technology.
That isn’t an option though, we have to find other methods as we don’t know if the wrong provocation launches a warhead. It may also be nearly 20 years in Asia has me very sensitive to ‘face’ as concept, maybe Russia is not as prone to that, but it’s made me very aware that aiming for humiliation is not always the best option. I think the Allies realised that with Japan after WW2. They had every right to execute the Imperial family after the atrocities they presided over but long term made the better decision to have them onside.
It’s very difficult terrain.
The BBC’s Russian language news website more than tripled its weekly audience last week with a record reach of 10.7m people as Russians desperately sought to bypass the Kremlin censors and learn the truth about Putin’s Ukraine War
This is something the likes of the free marketeers always miss with the BBC. It’s not really about game shows on BBC1, it serves loads of roles no other commercial broadcaster does. It was the first broadcaster in the world to put all its video schedule on demand, and all its audio output available worldwide. Mainly because it could and didn’t need a business case to justify it.
It has just added its news radio in Ukraine to a short frequency wavelength because Russia blew up the FM antennas. Netflix isn’t doing that and never will.
In my heart I am hugely angered by Putin’s invasion but I think in reality it is a very tight area we traverse in looking at the response. Putin has crossed a line quite obviously here from self enrichment to some ideological vision and that frightens me a lot more. A narcissistic or greedy leader is always much easier to deal with.
While part of me is yearning for Ukraine to fight back I also fear any humiliation or lack of progress for Putin may drive him to anger and further extremes. If it weren’t for a nuclear capability everything changes, I would send in NATO air cover, I think the huge conscript model Russia have worked in WW2, sending in an endless stream of cannon fodder until Germany could take no more, but would get destroyed by US, French and UK military technology.
That isn’t an option though, we have to find other methods as we don’t know if the wrong provocation launches a warhead. It may also be nearly 20 years in Asia has me very sensitive to ‘face’ as concept, maybe Russia is not as prone to that, but it’s made me very aware that aiming for humiliation is not always the best option.
I agree with all of this. I think a humiliated Putin would in some ways be the worst outcome in the longer term.
I think the most likely outcome, and maybe the only outcome in this situation that doesn’t lead to either all-out war on a more global scale or the total collapse of international diplomacy is probably an outcome that is still going to be unpalatable to the west.
Hopefully there will be continued sanctions to put economic pressure on Putin and those close to him, and Russia more broadly, but ultimately I can foresee a longer-term gradual worldwide diplomatic acceptance of a Ukraine that is under more meaningful Russian influence.
There will be a horrible period of suffering for now, and potentially a change of regime in Ukraine, after which I could see things gradually calming down and everyone in the international community ultimately accepting the new status quo. Not so dissimilar to Crimea.
So Putin basically gets away with it. Because the alternatives are much worse.
Rep. Lauren Boebert heckles Biden as he talks about his late son during the State of the Union
I honestly can’t decide between her and Marjorie Taylor Greene who irks the shit out of me more.
They should have been forcibly escorted out imho…
I guess it all started years ago when that man yelled “You lie!” to Obama in his SOTU address.
He should have been escorted out then and there.
The wild card here is how Russia’s isolation plays out politically and economically inside it. Much as he would like to, despite all the repressive laws in place, Putin can’t get back to the Soviet control. Younger Russians can get around the censors, access information in ways that wasn’t possible before.
There’s a generational split between older and younger Russians too. Those who do and don’t remember the older era. Others who do and don’t wish to go back.
It’s unarguable that the West fucked up their Cold War victory by rendering Russia a wild west economy that created the oligarchs. Putin has likely based his success on it.
As to what kept the world intact through the Cold War, it wasn’t the massive repression across Eastern Europe. It was better, smarter politicians. Not always moral ones but people who understood the world they had to work with.
In all of this, should countries be allowed to choose their own direction is the key question. On this one both the US and Russia have incredibly bad records, the UK’s isn’t much better, just older.
The bigger problem is a regime like Putin’s always requires a crisis to justify it. First it was the Chechens, then Syria, then the Crimea, now Ukraine. Although, I think there’s a lot of truth in the point that Russia will take but be unable to hold Ukraine. Iraq drained the US, Ukraine could do the same to Russia.
But none of this changes the awfulness of day to day life for those on the ground.
It’s unarguable that the West fucked up their Cold War victory by rendering Russia a wild west economy that created the oligarchs. Putin has likely based his success on it.
Correct. The US ‘Chicago School’ economists completely fucked up Russia by using it as some experimental libertarian economy, which a drunk Yeltsin somehow thought was a better idea than Gorbachev’s plan to copy the Scandinavian model. That was then exacerbated by the UK’s willingness to launder the money of the resulting billionaires and educate their kids while normal Russian people suffered.
I agree with all of this. I think a humiliated Putin would in some ways be the worst outcome in the longer term.
I don’t know if he really can be humiliated. The interesting thing about comparisons between Putin, GW Bush and Trump is that they are insulated from negative press. They have no respect for anyone else so they can’t be humiliated. The people under pressure are those well down the chain of command and it is more likely they will resort to desperately brutal measures to avoid repercussions.
However, this means that Russian kids who thought they were just on a military exercise will pay the price just as much as the Ukrainians. The Russian population is going to suffer as well. I can’t see how the Russian people will basically be able to work and live after this level of isolation. I can’t say they are in the same boat as North Korea, but it is crazy how immediately isolated the nation and its regime became in a week.
It is strange to see interviews with Putin where he seems quite canny and in control set against the poor strategic failures of the invasion. You saw this in Chechnya and Georgia as well and it’s hard to say that any action a Russian soldier might have seen in Syria would prepare them for the Ukrainian defenses. I do think that the conscription act is a bit of a detriment for any army but this does mean that the Army will be better prepared for future battles. Of course, most of these soldiers will be out of the army in a year unless forced to remain which is a strong possibility.
It is clear now how brainwashed people like Jimmy Dore, Aaron Mate, Glenn Greenwald, Max Blumenthal etc are by Russian propaganda. It’s a bit of the horseshoe theory with them on the left and Tucker Carlson and Trump on the right. At this point still giving Putin the benefit of the doubt is just insane, I think a lot of the people in the West have a little Russian brain worm in their heads. (Maybe I have it too, but not as bad as some do)
The Russian population is going to suffer as well.
They really are. The Guardian Daily podcast had a really good interview the last day or so with a journalist that’s been tracking Russian oligarch finance for over a decade. He said that before sanctions inequality was so massive in Russia that it made the US look like a socialist paradise. 4-500 people own 99% of the wealth – most of it syphoned offshore as none of the oligarchs trust each other so it doesn’t even have the slightest trickle down.
The collapse of the Ruble has meant that last week it was 29 to the dollar is now 112. So basically everything that needs to be imported will have quadrupled in price in a week.
Makes you wonder how different it is to the scenario in 1917, just the Romanoff’s replaced by the oligarchs.
[sarcasm]Sanctions will definitely work, like they worked in Iraq, Iran, North Korea etc. [/sarcasm]
he seems quite canny and in control set against the poor strategic failures of the invasion
I’m not quite sure Putin is doing this for any kind of pragmatic purpose or because he is a nationalist who feels the need to restore Russian empire. If it is the latter it could explain the poor strategic choices, he is blinded by his ideology and any sort of common pragmatic results people might consider, like improving the economy to make life better for people, is unimporant.
I’m not sure to what extent he is guided by the fascist vision of Dugin. Dugin wrote in his book the Foundations of Geopolitics that Russia would annex Ukraine.
Yeah, the essential flaw with sanctions is a basic misunderstanding of tyranny. Essentially, if there was anyone else that could lead these countries, they would be in power. That’s how these leaders stay in power. They insure there are no viable alternatives. And when one of these tyrants are toppled, chaos and civil war ensues.
the sanctions won’t suddenly end up with viable leaders appearing out of thin air.
Also I don’t think they really push people to start disliking their government. Putin can say to the Russians the sanctions is the evil West punishing poor Russians and many will believe that and stand behind their leader, who they see as fighting the evildoer that is punishing them.
[sarcasm]Sanctions will definitely work, like they worked in Iraq, Iran, North Korea etc. [/sarcasm]
Sanctions have a very mixed record of success but I also think there isn’t that much choice in a response.
We’d all like a perfect answer here, we know what Putin is doing is wrong and that all our governments are flawed, but a step over into direct military support is lighting up the nuclear flag.
I mentioned before that sanctions, economic and cultural, have had next to no impact on North Korea or Iran but they have always been removed from the system anyway, they never significantly lost anything. A place like South Africa that was fully immersed in the social and sporting world found it hard and eventually relented.
It’s worth pondering the ‘bread and circuses’ concept, the average Russian is struggling for the bread and we just removed the circus.
I think, even as it is problematic because of who we armed in that country, taking the Afghanistan approach is best. Just supply Ukrainians with weapons so they have a chance to fight for their country, while trying not to do too much to Russia that it will instigate something like a nuclear response. If we completely cripple the country economically ordinary Russians will suffer badly and we could end up in a situation where they feel they have nothing to lose.
Jan. 6 committee says Trump violated multiple laws in effort to overturn election
The select panel suggested its evidence supported findings that the former president violated multiple laws by attempting to prevent Congress from certifying his defeat.
A place like South Africa that was fully immersed in the social and sporting world found it hard and eventually relented.
That’s true, it worked for South Africa, and also Rhodesia I think.
Still i think it is ethically dubious as you’re often hurting innocent civilians, even killing them. If you significantly hurt a country economically you end up with people dying earlier from things that could be prevented with better food, healthcare services etc
Also I don’t think they really push people to start disliking their government. Putin can say to the Russians the sanctions is the evil West punishing poor Russians and many will believe that and stand behind their leader, who they see as fighting the evildoer that is punishing them.
That doesn’t appear to be as true as it used to be. Older Russians probably but not so much the younger ones who can baffle Putin by using mobiles.
Meanwhile, back in this Sceptred Mire of Johnson, Gavin Williamson gets a knighthood. Yes, really.
Meanwhile, back in this Sceptred Mire of Johnson, Gavin Williamson gets a knighthood. Yes, really.
On another topic, what is going on in Texas with the transgender thing is insane. A new law targets parents of transgender children as child abusers. I never cared all that much about the trans issue, I mean it is everybody’s own personal business as far as I’m concerned, but this is just wrong.
The trans issue is one enormous political football, it’s the perfect example of how everything now is ‘taking sides’.
It affects next to nobody but is somehow at the top of key discussion points. I mentioned before about Graham Linehan being obsessed with it so his every uttering was about trans men with the defence he was taking a feminist stance but the ‘threat’ of self ID leading to danger for women was pretty much theoretical while in the UK it is estimated half a million women are sexually assaulted by CIS men every year.
It would be like everyone deep in angst about how bad the problem of chewing gum on the pavement was while 10 dead bodies with knives sticking out of them surrounded them.
On another topic, what is going on in Texas with the transgender thing is insane. A new law targets parents of transgender children as child abusers. I never cared all that much about the trans issue, I mean it is everybody’s own personal business as far as I’m concerned, but this is just wrong.
It delves into a lot of psychologically dangerous areas. The contradictions in the political consciousness are inherent to social psychology. The same conservatives arguing that the government is overstepping with vaccines and masks are also asking their governments to get directly and invasively involved in controlling individual reproductive rights, drug use and sexuality.
We’d all like a perfect answer here, we know what Putin is doing is wrong and that all our governments are flawed, but a step over into direct military support is lighting up the nuclear flag.
Though I do wonder if an extremely aggressive approach at the beginning would have stalled an invasion and forced substantial diplomatic approaches. If instead of spending all the time claiming Russia was preparing to invade, suppose Biden had announced that he was going to ask congress for approval to directly engage any foreign military action that crossed into Ukraine territory and started the build up of troops in Nato allies immediately while stepping up US military readiness around the world and in Alaska.
What we’re seeing in the Russian invasion – if compared to Chechnya and Georgia, is a fairly standard plan of attack. It seems to be marred with a lot of mistakes, but in general Russia has always been comfortable with a lot of initial casualties – since most of the early force are conscripts – as they work to encircle targets with heavy artillery power. Soon, Russia will be in a position to start hammering the cities it wants no matter how many troops they lose and they are probably just taking the time to prepare their ammunition, fuel and supply lines for that.
However, if it looked like the US and NATO were willing to directly engage Russian invaders before the assault started, that would have thrown a big wrench in the plans. The important part of this is that it needed to happen before any shots were fired. Once the invasion begins, there is nothing to be gained by later action.
When you have or can assemble overwhelming power, the best way to use it would be to prevent conflicts from even starting. But you have to be willing to use it, and I don’t think our governments were willing and it was clear to Russia that they were not.
Were there calls in the 70s to assassinate Brezhnev over Afganistan? Are people getting stupider?
I think many people really have to press the whole happening into a standard one and a half hour movie format. Putin is the Red Skull/Darth Vader/Voldemort, he’s evil and he’s mad and if we just get him we win. Imagine Russians taking out president Bush when he invades Iraq.
If you wanted to stop Iraq, you take out Cheney, not Bush.
With Putin there is a ‘live ny the sword, die by the sword’ aspect. This is an individual who has ordered nerve agent assassination of dissidents and critics in foreign states. It can be argued that what he inflicts on his victims is good for him too.
As to a decapitation strike on him, he does have all the control and no successor. Going by war rules, if it could be pulled off, could save a lot of lives on both sides.
Oh jesus fucking Christ, I am not saying he doesn’t deserve it, I’m saying if you want everybody to die by nukes, this is how you do it. Killing all complex life on the planet is not an outcome I find acceptable.
Oh, cool off, this is supposed to be a conversation, right? That’s what we’re doing.
Here’s a radical idea – post about what we – those of us on this board have posted – and not some shit you read on Twitter or other internet nether region. There’s no end of bad info out there and it’s doing no one any good, myself included.
None of us here have advocated for a game of thermonuclear war. If anything having Kasparov beat the crap out of Putin via Chess would be fantastic. But Putin’s probably the bad loser type who’d still declare war.
But, keeping your scenario going, if Putin has an accident, some Russians won’t be happy about it. But going to the extreme of a full multi-nation nuclear response as a result? I don’t think they love Putin that much.
If any missiles end up flying, it’ll probably be cruise missiles, with conventional payloads, in response to Russia using a battlefield nuke in Ukraine. And that would likely start a global conflict.
China could maybe help to find a way out of this.
China can help end the war in Ukraine
A story we’re not seeing in the media here is that most of Asia, like China, Pakistan and India, hasn’t condemned the Russian invasion. Fuck China for being an authoritarian shithole, but they’re better diplomats than the dumb Western fucks that are sleepwalking into WW3.
A story we’re not seeing in the media here is that most of Asia, like China, Pakistan and India, hasn’t condemned the Russian invasion. Fuck China for being an authoritarian shithole, but they’re better diplomats than the dumb Western fucks that are sleepwalking into WW3.
So are you suggesting that Western diplomats shouldn’t have condemned the invasion?
Kremlin officials say they didn’t know Russian President Vladimir Putin would invade Ukraine, and were shocked by the severity of Western sanctions imposed over it, the independent Russian investigative outlet Agency reported.
One unnamed senior official said people in the Kremlin “did not know” that it would be an all-out invasion and that many were shocked when news of the military assault broke, the outlet said.
In the run-up to the invasion, Putin’s cabinet had only prepared to deal with Western sanctions introduced over Russia’s decision to recognize the independence of the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk on February 21, not for an invasion, a source close to Putin’s administration told Agency.
After Russia invaded, countries including the US and UK, as well as the EU sanctioned Russian entities and individuals, seizing assets belonging to those closest to Putin, and ejecting Russian banks from the SWIFT global financial system.
The Kremlin is particularly concerned by its ousting from SWIFT, the freezing of Russian foreign reserves, including by the US, and the exit of a string of Western companies from Russia, Agency reported.
“Everything is fucked,” a source close to Putin’s administration told the outlet.
Before the invasion, one of the officials told Agency, Kremlin officials held several meetings about sanctions and that stress tests were conducted on large companies in case Russia was disconnected from SWIFT.
An official went on to tell Agency that Kremlin officials cannot resign from their posts because it would be seen as a betrayal. “You can only quit to prison,” they said.
The report comes as Western officials warned that Putin was so furious about the sanctions that he may target civilian targets in Ukraine to “set an example,” The Washington Post reported Tuesday.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine entered its ninth day on Friday. Russian forces seized its first major city, the port city of Kherson, on Wednesday, and continued to subject the cities of Mariupol and Kyiv to heavy shelling.
Russian forces seized the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant on Friday morning, Ukrainian officials said. It is Europe’s largest nuclear plant.
This whole thing sounds less and less like a well thought-out plan and more like a bully trying to intimidate someone only to get punched in the nose by the weakling. This just makes the bully madder and more irrational.
I’ve seen some articles where Putin’s oligarch pals are really feeling the pinch of the sanctions. They’re having assets siezed and having to sell off others. In some cases, the assets they are losing are personal favorites of theirs. This is where the sanctions have the potential to do real damage. If there’s one thing billionaires hate more than paying taxes, it’s losing their money and assets. They will be the ones to pressure Putin to back down or they will have him “removed” in one form or another.
If you think I made the point anywhere it’s justified for Putin to be doing what he did, I think you’re wrong. I didn’t do that. Putin is one evil motherfucker who shouldn’t have access to any weapon including kitchen knifes. But that’s not the world we’re living in.
This sounds like sanctions to me. You should try appeasement. Give him MORE weapons.
Lukashenko would be a better target for assassination.
The Russian and Belarusian governments already claim that the US has plotted to assassinate their people and leaders while they have actually been actively engaged in assassinations and abductions. To be honest, if the US was as ruthless as they claim, we would not have this problem.
If we want to prevent escalation of war going forward, the Western nations that do not want warfare (but still have massively destructive armies) would need to become much more militarily aggressive and willing to use force. There is no position from which to negotiate if they make it clear that peace at all costs is the aim.
A story we’re not seeing in the media here is that most of Asia, like China, Pakistan and India, hasn’t condemned the Russian invasion. Fuck China for being an authoritarian shithole, but they’re better diplomats than the dumb Western fucks that are sleepwalking into WW3.
Not really. China and Russia have default states of never condemning or voting for UN resolutions essentially to cover their own backs when they do shit themselves. India and Pakistan are more simply completely fucked without Russian oil, they have no domestic energy resources. A lot of Europe also is reliant but not as heavily, use of renewables and other sources could get them through with rationing.
However I would very much welcome if China’s neutral stance could come in and calm things down. I also don’t like their authoritarian regime but China are often characterised by the west as a threat and expansionist when they don’t have that much history of it at all compared to most of us. I worry about Xi’s recent power grabs in that respect but China has for most of the time since Mao been run a technocracy which tends more to caution and pragmatism than a dictatorship.
Pence hits Trump: No room in GOP ‘for apologists for Putin’
Pence is really trying to wash Trump’s stench off.
This whole thing sounds less and less like a well thought-out plan and more like a bully trying to intimidate someone only to get punched in the nose by the weakling. This just makes the bully madder and more irrational.
Well, maybe, but let’s discuss this seriously – though obviously in a format that means that we might not actually see each other’s posts or respond after days of living our lives. Which in itself is a wake-up. At heart, the Ukrainians woke up to chaos and it has our attention, but not our investment. There is a great amount of sympathy and empathy as we can imagine what it would be like to suddenly find ourselves literally facing bombs, gunfire and the expectation that we should either fight or flee – or the case of the Russian civilians that are now entirely cut off from the rest of the world and global society by this act in which they had no real involvement. But for us, it is just an imaginary exercise.
If anything, I think that should be emphasized. If you are a person in the United States, the UK, France, Netherlands, Scandinavia, etc., there is this almost fantastic shared cultural perspective that apparently buffers us against possibilities that are always present for Eastern Europeans, Africans, Middle Eastern and many Asian lands. These stupid breakdowns of the social order seem somehow less likely in the Western Culture and that should be valued no matter what domestic problems we face.
However, in the case of Putin and Russia, I don’t see this as insane or unreasonable. The assault on Ukraine is well within the standards of Putin’s previous military excursions and it does seem driven by some sort of Russian nationalism very strongly informed by the Soviet era perspective on the world.
From that point of view, though, it really means that the only effective way to respond is with the same mentality that people had in the Cold War. We need more Kennedy v. Khrushchev in this fight as contemporary neoliberal philosophy will not engage the theatrical nature of the Russian perspective. The conflict needs to be brought to a brink so that détente can then emerge.
However, in the case of Putin and Russia, I don’t see this as insane or unreasonable. The assault on Ukraine is well within the standards of Putin’s previous military excursions and it does seem driven by some sort of Russian nationalism very strongly informed by the Soviet era perspective on the world.
Well I do think it is unreasonable. I think it represents nationalism, irredentism. Many Russians just don’t accept Ukraine as an independent country, and to see it get in the sphere of NATO and the EU is just unacceptable to them. I think it’s psychological rather than coldly rational.
Wether Putin really believes this or wether he oppotunistically exploits it for political gain I’m not sure.
One thing the last few days have shown is how much more connected the world is now. Putin saw this only in terms of energy, gambling that his supply of that would prevent any western response. Yet Russia is not a freestanding economy either and is open to the counter strikes applied.
With a bit of luck this’ll also kill the Brexit bullshit – though that one is already a fucking zombie that won’t die.
Also, with the BBC now running a dark web news service into Russia, maybe the Government will get off them. Bit sceptical but you never know. Equally, Putin is showing the endpoint of the far right politics too many politicians, Johnson included, have been engaging in while believing they can walk the razor edge.
With a bit of luck this’ll also kill the Brexit bullshit
One positive to come out of this seems to be that the UK is interacting and cooperating meaningfully with the EU over security matters with very little Brexit baggage. Even committed Brexiters have finally realised that there are more important things.
Well I do think it is unreasonable. I think it represents nationalism, irredentism. Many Russians just don’t accept Ukraine as an independent country, and to see it get in the sphere of NATO and the EU is just unacceptable to them. I think it’s psychological rather than coldly rational. Wether Putin really believes this or wether he oppotunistically exploits it for political gain I’m not sure.
It is tough to say. If anything, I would suspect that Putin really believes that the former Soviet States are still primarily “Russia friendly.” That they would be better off as part of the Russian Federation than the EU.
Winning battles, but losing the war.
But going to the degree of invading others to take them over and remake in your image? That’s imperialism.
Or extreme paranoia. I mean, the obvious reason is that Russian leaders actually think that the United States and European powers have this long term goal of eventually invading Russia. Which is crazy because our leaders have no actual long term goals. No leaders are in power long enough to have these goals. Even our military leaders aren’t in positions of authority long enough for that. We barely have short term goals and those get tossed out at the drop of a hat.
On top of that, they have nuclear weapons – and the most powerful thermonuclear devices second only to the US. Sure, Soviet and Russian technology is not great so maybe those weapons, and the men who would actually have to launch them, are unreliable, but who’s gonna take that bet? Especially when from our point of view better relations with Russia would only benefit both sides.
Finally, Russia was in a really good position prior to this invasion. Its leaders and upper class were only benefiting from their relationship to Western Europe. Possibly, Putin’s real fear was that Ukraine could actually compete with Russia and surpass it as the main economic partner the EU has in Eastern Europe leaving Russia to sink and decline even further.
However, at this point, the Ukraine only has more support from the West and any gains Russia made in the world since Putin came to power have been lost almost overnight. Unless everyone is not seeing something, this invasion is the worst thing that has happened to Russia in the modern era. Worse that the fall of the Soviet Union and worse than the Russian Revolution. The largest nation on the planet by land mass is now the greatest pariah on the planet even more than North Korea or Afghanistan.
Makes me wonder how their close allies like Assad and Kim Jong-un are reacting behind closed doors when their biggest ally is now more isolated than they are. Or nations with ties to Russia like Armenia and Israel.
Logically, given how Putin apparently loves Russian history, that should prevent that kind of paranoia.
Napoleon? Failed. Hitler? Failed. The country is too big to successfully invade – unless you go back all the way to the Mongols.
As to Israel, it’s being the usual disappointment but looks to be finding the line to walk between not angering Russia and supporting a Jewish national leader very difficult.
But going to the degree of invading others to take them over and remake in your image? That’s imperialism.
Or extreme paranoia. I mean, the obvious reason is that Russian leaders actually think that the United States and European powers have this long term goal of eventually invading Russia. Which is crazy because our leaders have no actual long term goals. No leaders are in power long enough to have these goals. Even our military leaders aren’t in positions of authority long enough for that. We barely have short term goals and those get tossed out at the drop of a hat.
On top of that, they have nuclear weapons – and the most powerful thermonuclear devices second only to the US. Sure, Soviet and Russian technology is not great so maybe those weapons, and the men who would actually have to launch them, are unreliable, but who’s gonna take that bet? Especially when from our point of view better relations with Russia would only benefit both sides.
Finally, Russia was in a really good position prior to this invasion. Its leaders and upper class were only benefiting from their relationship to Western Europe. Possibly, Putin’s real fear was that Ukraine could actually compete with Russia and surpass it as the main economic partner the EU has in Eastern Europe leaving Russia to sink and decline even further.
However, at this point, the Ukraine only has more support from the West and any gains Russia made in the world since Putin came to power have been lost almost overnight. Unless everyone is not seeing something, this invasion is the worst thing that has happened to Russia in the modern era. Worse that the fall of the Soviet Union and worse than the Russian Revolution. The largest nation on the planet by land mass is now the greatest pariah on the planet even more than North Korea or Afghanistan.
Makes me wonder how their close allies like Assad and Kim Jong-un are reacting behind closed doors when their biggest ally is now more isolated than they are. Or nations with ties to Russia like Armenia and Israel.
Putin seems to be of the “old ways” mindset by threatening nukes.
Dude, this is the 21st century! The US, Europe, et al are waging economic warfare. That’s probably done far more damage to Russia than they have against the Ukraine in the same time frame. Fiscal pain has been inflicted on the Russian oligarchs that they are actually feeling.
I was talking to a nurse from the country of Georgia recently. She said they had a good leader who was making the country better. He then told some billionaire he’d have to pay millions in taxes. The oligarch lost his shit hard and successfully campaigned against the good leader. A more sympathetic leader was elected and things started going downhill. Putin could have had one of his rich friends do something similar with the Ukraine. Sure, it would have taken longer but he would have probably been able to retain firmer control of the country in the long run. Hell, the rest of the world wouldn’t have even noticed!
Sometimes, the new ways are better than the old ways.
Sometimes, the new ways are better than the old ways.
You lie!
David, here is a very harsh truth for you:
At one point, the old ways were the new ways.
It delves into a lot of psychologically dangerous areas.
Yeah…it is very triggering for conservative people. The changing of gender to one opposing the sex you were born as. It is “turning the divine order on its head”. Catholic teaching also can’t really deal with it, despite the new pope being a bit more tolerant.
I confess I don’t really understand transgender people or why they may have a wish ti change their bodies. But in the end I accept it’s none of my business, it’s between their own consiousness and their doctor.
This is about the ideas of Alekandr Dugin, the man who may be behind some of Putin’s actions:
Aleksandr Dugin: The Russian Mystic Behind America’s Weird Far-Right
Dugin also has contacts with Baudet, a Dutch far right politician.
Dugin also has contacts with Baudet, a Dutch far right politician.
Not that there aren’t plenty of pseudoscientific crazies over her in the US as well often appealing to Christian Conservative, creationist and flat earth theorists.
It’s interesting someone pointed out today that Nigel Farage posting on Twitter is getting 80% or more negative comments, when previously more than half would be supportive.
Anywhere in the world block Twitter recently?
There’s a lot of dumb stuff going on but this takes the prize:
Interesting point of view from the more traditionally conservative perspective,
Also, I am surprised this Youtuber is still able to post:
It’s interesting someone pointed out today that Nigel Farage posting on Twitter is getting 80% or more negative comments, when previously more than half would be supportive.
Anywhere in the world block Twitter recently?
On that front:
Not that there aren’t plenty of pseudoscientific crazies over her in the US as well often appealing to Christian Conservative, creationist and flat earth theorists.
That’s true of course, I posted it mainly for his possible influence on Russian politics. Fascist movements can grow up anywhere, they are not necessarily emanating from one source.
It’s interesting someone pointed out today that Nigel Farage posting on Twitter is getting 80% or more negative comments, when previously more than half would be supportive.
Anywhere in the world block Twitter recently?
On that front:
I wouldn’t read too much into that. Looking through that Twitter account’s lists, it’s pretty fluid generally and while there are days that are right wing heavy (and Shapiro seems to get loads of traffic on most days) other sources do get look ins anyway. I mean, look at the list for the 14th Feb.
The top-performing link posts by U.S. Facebook pages in the last 24 hours are from:
1. HuffPost
2. The New York Times
3. HipHopDX. com
4. Occupy Democrats
5. Occupy Democrats
6. KCCI
7. TMZ
8. USA TODAY
9. TMZ
10. Stereogum— Facebook's Top 10 (@FacebooksTop10) February 14, 2022
and then yesterday’s
The top-performing link posts by U.S. Facebook pages in the last 24 hours are from:
1. ComicBook. com
2. Ben Shapiro
3. Dan Bongino
4. The Political Insider
5. The Dodo
6. Ben Shapiro
7. Oprah Winfrey
8. Peachy Sunday
9. 11Alive
10. Ben Shapiro— Facebook's Top 10 (@FacebooksTop10) March 7, 2022
Ukrainian Ambassador holds up a tweet from Lavrov and advises Russian diplomats that they can obtain assistance for mental help from the NHS by dialing 111 pic.twitter.com/bFoqyKYJ6Q
— Acyn (@Acyn) March 7, 2022
In what is blatant tribal politics, Johnson tries to assure everyone he has no truck with bullying and that, as such, clearly John Bercow is a total bastard, while retaining proven bully Priti Patel as Home Secretary.
Some of those GOP spin doctors were saying if Tr*mp was POTUS, there wouldn’t have been an invasion.
Thing is, Tr*mp deliberate withheld foreign aid to Ukraine when he was in office.
————————————-
In the news, the huge yachts and other luxury properties of these “Russian oligarchs” are being seized.
Basically from Google and Wikipedia, these oligarchs are these business magnates “who rapidly accumulated wealth during the era of Russian privatization in the aftermath of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. The failing Soviet state left the ownership of state assets contested, which allowed for informal deals with former USSR officials (mostly in Russia and Ukraine) as a means to acquire state property.”
I remember this rich Russian magnate Mikhail Prokhorov who was into metals in Russia bought the basketball team the Nets years ago. Now the new owner is a Taiwanese-Canadian businessman.
In the news, the huge yachts and other luxury properties of these “Russian oligarchs” are being seized. Basically from Google and Wikipedia, these oligarchs are these business magnates “who rapidly accumulated wealth during the era of Russian privatization in the aftermath of the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. The failing Soviet state left the ownership of state assets contested, which allowed for informal deals with former USSR officials (mostly in Russia and Ukraine) as a means to acquire state property.”
It is an interesting block of history that isn’t popularly known in the West. I mean we also saw a lot of it happen in the West though around the same time as nations would sell off their own public services with preference to certain buyers.
How Carlos Slim Built His Fortune (investopedia.com)
We have our own oligarchs.
In this regard, I have to question the depth of the sanctions on Russia and oil purchases. First, as we’ve seen in the past, sanctions do not embolden populations but saps the public will. It will actually make the position of Putin and the Kremlin stronger in Russia. Second, who benefits really from the sanctions? Obviously, taking an entire business out of the market means profits for those remaining becomes even greater. This means that the position of current petro-states, like Saudi Arabia, and their often autocratic leaders just becomes stronger. Finally, it will only intensify the likelihood of more warfare which in the end, as everyone should know, benefits arms dealers and the biggest arms dealer in the world is the United States.
First, as we’ve seen in the past, sanctions do not embolden populations but saps the public will. It will actually make the position of Putin and the Kremlin stronger in Russia. Second, who benefits really from the sanctions?
The sanctions are just a show of opposition to Russian actions. The risk to the world is too great for the west to get directly involved, but the people in western nations are demanding some action for our governments so something needs to be done. Sanctions tick that box for them.
Yeah I don’t agree entirely that sanctions just inflame. You can’t just ignore and condone invasion, you can’t directly fight back because: nukes.
They do really crap on the populace who will face the brunt but essentially Russia now is the conclusion of pure free market economics, they have flat tax, they have few rules and that’s why 400 people command 91% of the money. Where Russia does differ from other sanctioned regimes is their immersion into that system, they are the most capitalist country in the planet in a way North Korea and Iran have never been.
I’ve seen analysis from economists that say the sanctions will directly degrade the Russian war machine, and do it in a surprisingly short time.
The reason is that Russian tech is completely reliant on western imports. Russia doesn’t make make chips, they import them. If you can’t import chips, you can’t repair or replace your tech. If you can’t replace your tech, your air force stops flying, your army stops moving, your missiles stop launching.
Here’s something that’s going to disable Russia very quickly: Cisco had now stopped all operations in Russia. No more products, parts, repairs, and crucially no more more support. For those that don’t know: Cisco is the world’s most important producer of networking equipment, and today every business and manufacturing process in the world relies on communications facilitated by Cisco networks. Want to bring a company to its knees? Take away their Cisco routers. Want to bring a country to its knees? Well, you get the idea…
At the moment, the only place Russia can turn to replace these vital pieces of technology is China. And they’re turning to China, but there are two problems: (1) China has Russia by the balls and there’s no way they are going to give Russia a good deal on the things they need. (2) It takes time. It takes forever for a medium-sized company to swing their operations completely away from one supplier to another, imagine how much longer it takes an entire country.
Russia is basically screwed. They are screwed already, it’s not a case of when the sanctions bite, it’s a case of how long Russia can stagger along pretending they’re not.
Obviously I’m not expert in international supply chains, this is just what I’ve gleaned from reading articles by people who are.
Obviously I’m not expert in international supply chains, this is just what I’ve gleaned from reading articles by people who are.
They do really crap on the populace who will face the brunt but essentially Russia now is the conclusion of pure free market economics, they have flat tax, they have few rules and that’s why 400 people command 91% of the money. Where Russia does differ from other sanctioned regimes is their immersion into that system, they are the most capitalist country in the planet in a way North Korea and Iran have never been.
The main question though is obviously “what will the sanctions accomplish?” I have heard the “we have to do something!” justification, but that is not true. You definitely do not have to do something when you can’t say exactly why what you do will accomplish what you want. We’re always dealing with the consequences of responding to events with no end goal in mind.
I mean, by that same logic, sending US and NATO forces into the Ukraine to directly engage the Russian army is just as justified because we do not know for sure what would happen. However, we have a good idea of the risks. Nevertheless, direct engagement might actually end the war. An enforced no-fly zone might stall the invasion. It seems a much clearer course than the economic warfare approach as, in the end, these sanctions may just end up with a desperate Russia striking out beyond the borders of the Ukraine and Belarus into Poland and the Baltic.
I mean, by that same logic, sending US and NATO forces into the Ukraine to directly engage the Russian army is just as justified because we do not know for sure what would happen. However, we have a good idea of the risks. Nevertheless, direct engagement might actually end the war. An enforced no-fly zone might stall the invasion. It seems a much clearer course than the economic warfare approach as, in the end, these sanctions may just end up with a desperate Russia striking out beyond the borders of the Ukraine and Belarus into Poland and the Baltic.
Some parents punish misbehaving children by taking away their videogames, or their phone, or television time. Some parents punish their kids by sending them to their room or grounding them. And some parents punish their kids by spanking them or hitting them with a belt or breaking their arm.
The US and NATO have taken away Putin’s videogames first, rather than grabbing the belt.
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