Time for a new politics thread. Guessing it’ll be fairly quiet given the calm and measured state of world politics today.
Home » Forums » The Loveland Arms – pub chat » Politics: dead cats and red hats
From what I’ve seen of the RNC, all of them are off their heads on… something!
One thing with nominating an amiable old centrist like Biden is I’m not sure this kind of rhetoric is going to stick:
“The same socialist policies which destroyed places like Cuba and Venezuela must not take root in our cities and our schools,” Trump campaign senior adviser Kimberly Guilfoyle warned in a loud, inflammatory speech to an empty room.
Sure the MAGA crowd will lap it up but it’s not hugely convincing. I think him being a bit doddery and confused was the better attack line.
One thing with nominating an amiable old centrist like Biden is I’m not sure this kind of rhetoric is going to stick:
“The same socialist policies which destroyed places like Cuba and Venezuela must not take root in our cities and our schools,” Trump campaign senior adviser Kimberly Guilfoyle warned in a loud, inflammatory speech to an empty room.
Sure the MAGA crowd will lap it up but it’s not hugely convincing. I think him being a bit doddery and confused was the better attack line.
The problem is most of the people who won’t fall for this are already voting Democrat and have been for at least 10 years.
“loud, inflammatory” = Screaming, right?
Yeah, im with Steve.
I briedly watched some youtube of it and they all seem on drugs and/or just fucking nuts.
Except for Nikki Haley who will probably be the GOP nomination in 2024.
The problem is most of the people who won’t fall for this are already voting Democrat and have been for at least 10 years.
I think the people who will fall for this are already voting Republican and have been for at least 10 years.
The problem is most of the people who won’t fall for this are already voting Democrat and have been for at least 10 years.
I think the people who will fall for this are already voting Republican and have been for at least 10 years.
Yeah, it’s not going to attract any new voters, but I remain unconvinced on the concept of the moveable middle. I think it’s more likely that you have people who are either nominally Republican or Democrat supporters, and they either choose to vote or not based on motivation, what’s happening on election day, ease of access to a polling station and so on. The Republicans know that a significant percentage of their remaining voter base will get out come hell or high water, which is why they work to make it harder for less motivated people to vote – especially in Blue districts.
The more red meat they throw to the hardcore MAGA types who honestly believe that Obama is a secret Kenyan Muslim and that Kamala Harris is a Stalinist, the more incentivised their radical base is to vote regardless of the hassle.
"time to conquer earth!" pic.twitter.com/VDQLKQscaW
— ziwe (@ziwe) August 25, 2020
I liked this one:
Couldn’t help making this:
It’s a cult of personality at this stage. Aside from the obvious, and right from the start he showed who he was, there are all kinds attached. I’ve come across some scary folk who despise him but will still vote regardless because they think he’ll bring about the rapture. Then there are the fiscal evangelists who think if you’re poor you deserve it either/or God wills it/you didn’t work hard enough/I’ve had to suffer, so should you. Jared Sexton has an interesting take. Here’s a brief summary:
I think him being a bit doddery and confused was the better attack line.
I think Trump will push this over the socialist angle because he knows what has a better chance to win. These other yahoos think that their platforms actually matter when they don’t. A friend of mine once said that Trump won in 2016 because he used wrestling rhetoric(?) where he would go out to the middle of the ring(podiums and microphones) and insult his opponent and praise himself without any response.
because he knows what has a better chance to win
Nah, he doesn’t know shit.
The problem is most of the people who won’t fall for this are already voting Democrat and have been for at least 10 years.
I think the people who will fall for this are already voting Republican and have been for at least 10 years.
Yeah, it’s not going to attract any new voters, but I remain unconvinced on the concept of the moveable middle. I think it’s more likely that you have people who are either nominally Republican or Democrat supporters, and they either choose to vote or not based on motivation, what’s happening on election day, ease of access to a polling station and so on. The Republicans know that a significant percentage of their remaining voter base will get out come hell or high water, which is why they work to make it harder for less motivated people to vote – especially in Blue districts.
The more red meat they throw to the hardcore MAGA types who honestly believe that Obama is a secret Kenyan Muslim and that Kamala Harris is a Stalinist, the more incentivised their radical base is to vote regardless of the hassle.
I agree that swing voters are very rare, at best. Especially in today’s political climate. Anyone undecided right now is basically saying they aren’t voting. Because even at the best of times the US only sees 55-60% turnout. The 5-10% of undecided voters are likely the first group abstaining from voting. Also, looking at Trump approval ratings, they basically align with his poll numbers. The electorate seems to be about 45% leans or solid Republican and 50% lean or solid Dem. The other 5% just aren’t going to vote. So elections come down to which side is actually motivated to show up. Historically conservatives seem to be more reliable for whatever reason.
To me swing voters are real, vital and they will decide this 2020 election. As people switching from Obama to Trump in 2016 did.
The problem is they don’t behave or follow a pattern we expect. A simple left/right reading of politics. They could be pro gay marriage and anti immigration.
The error is just thinking a neutral middle ground position on anything secures them. Centrism caused this problem, a promise of better terms that never happened, the cash flew up the ladder much the same because it was just a moderation of the same ideology that will collapse at some point.
Historically conservatives seem to be more reliable for whatever reason.
That’s where the Gerrymandering and voter suppression comes in.
To me swing voters are real, vital and they will decide this 2020 election
I think there’s absolutely no way Trump is going to lose this election, no matter how much he actually loses by.
He stomps all over the Constitution on a daily basis, and I honestly don’t believe he’ll leave the White House until it burns to the ground.
I honestly don’t believe he’ll leave the White House until it burns to the ground.
So what you’re saying is Canada will save us?
So what you’re saying is Canada will save us?
With all their beady little eyes and flappin heads so full of lies?
So elections come down to which side is actually motivated to show up. Historically conservatives seem to be more reliable for whatever reason.
The two biggest reasons being they don’t face voter suppression and their party actually caters to them.
The GOP have become a party centred on zeal and around a demigogue. They show up because they are zealots.
Comparatively, the internal strugglings of the Democrat coters reflects the policy debates that should actually be happening given the size of the country and conplexity of the issues.
It feels like rhetoric to me, to say the Democrats dont cater to their voters. Im more inclined to go with Gareths dissection that there are particular policy points that will push a person one way or the other, and not necessarily vote for the entire platform.
Its also important to note that the electoral colleges will decide this. It will be (at least) Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina Pennsylvania and Wisconcin who decide this. Thats a good few red-tinged purple states that need to be nudged blue.
Tim can please stop doing that thing where you imply posters to the left of you are just repeating rhetoric and haven’t thought through the issues ourselves.
Biden/Harris and the DNC are against leftist positions popular with the electorate like M4A, marijuana legalization, the GND, getting corporate money out of politics, and they have already begun signaling austerity should Biden win. They’re also responding tepidly to the current moment re: policing.
Again, Im not sure youre as to the left of me as you think.
I was saying that the Democrats are a broad church.
I know what your position on these issues are. Like you, I have also read the Biden/Harris policy platform.
I have no intention of revisiting that discussion with you, but if you want to talk about a potential path to the white house, then I am more then happy to.
Backing M4A during a deadly pandemic seems like a winner.
Maybe.
Tim can please stop doing that thing where you imply posters to the left of you are just repeating rhetoric and haven’t thought through the issues ourselves.
Someone’s got to fill that O’hara niche.
Come on Anders. Im not being antagonistic or saying anything unreasonable at all.
Its pretty clear that some posters will ignore or dislike anything I post in this thread by default, which I am fine with.
I would like to talk about things critically, which I have tried to do.
If you would prefer to discuss these issues without me, then I will leave. I talk about these things on a daily basis with people in my real life so its honestly no great loss for me.
I like having you here Tim and don’t want you to go at all. But I have noticed a few times what I mentioned: that I or someone else will post something critical of the Dems, saying they’re not fighting hard enough, not truly left wing, what have you, and you’ll call it rhetoric which implies parroting some other source’s viewpoints. That one thing gets under my skin but honestly if you kept doing it I’d still want you here, you’re a good guy and I like reading your posts.
I do think that saying that the democrats arent catering to their voter base is a rhetorical statement because their base is larged and varied across the entire country.
I may not always say things that reflect your point of view directly,and I am asking you to be okay with that.
I will put some thought into controlling the language of my posts so it comes across less inflammatory.
I haven’t finished reading all of the Biden/Harris policies yet.
I’m okay with hearing everyone’s point of view.
One thing I’ve been hearing which will greatly aid people’s ability to vote is more and more companies are giving employees the day off to vote.
I was just suggesting I stay out of the thread, Bernadette, not leave all together.
In any case, its historically a testy thread but excepting one or two posters were usually not very far apart on the issues politically. Sometimes its just favouring a different approach, or thibking about certain issues within another context.
To me, its a very academically exciting topic but I dont have as much skin in the game like Will or Chris do, because im not an American citizen. I think we all recognise that the governance of America has a major bearing on world affairs, but the domestic issues do not impact me (or lots of posters here).
Where that leaves me is im particularly interested of the cultural phenomenon of American politics and the very strange way that the voting is actually handled across a country of that size.
I think there is definitely credence to the idea that someone like Nancy Pelosi, although she puts a lot of effort into marketing herdelf to the contrary, is far more interested in strategy then values. Right now, im not so sure if thats such a bad thing as strategy is very important when deciding the road to the white house, but others opinions will obviously differ. Its also probably true to say that tge swing donts dont always take place in the “centre” which is what we saw happen in the rust belt in 2016.
At the moment, im not sure what issues are important to Florida for example, but I do knoe its a very politically diverse state and could be key to the victory of either party.
I like reading everyone’s posts. And I agree with Tim that the Dem’s “base” is pretty broad and they try to appearing the portion they believe will win them elections. Whether for good or ill, they see that as the center. They basically use the ice cream vendor theory from game theory 101. As the gop moves more to the right so do the Dems to try to usurp that portion of the electorate. It’s solid strategy, but maybe terrible for the country.
In any case, I hope no one feels that they can’t contribute here. I personally appreciate everyone’s perspective. But I know politics can get heated really quickly especially in the current climate.
Japan PM Shinzo Abe set to announce resignation amid health concerns
In any case, its historically a testy thread but excepting one or two posters were usually not very far apart on the issues politically. Sometimes its just favouring a different approach, or thibking about certain issues within another context.
In a way that’s one of our problems. We’re broadly on the same side, so that makes us exaggerate our differences just to have something to say. If we had a few extreme right-wingers here on the forum we’d at least have a common enemy that we could all unite against and stop sniping at each other over minor differences.
…
…
See what I did there?
We could all unite against you for shits and giggles?
As the gop moves more to the right so do the Dems to try to usurp that portion of the electorate
I’m really not sure if the Dems ARE moving towards the right. I think maybe for some policies like healthcare, the public option on obamacare is comparatively more conservative than Bernies M4A plan, but on the whole I think they are generally a more progressive party then Bill’s Democrats.
We could all unite against you for shits and giggles?
No.
If it helps, I’m extremely right-handed.
I’m reading the rest of the task force recommendations as a distraction from works politics.
I think that whole idea is great and a clear effort to address tge divide between the “centrist” and “progressive” idealogical subparties.
So far I agree but I’m only on page 78.
A lot of it is bullet points.
Honestly, I think it is a must read for anyone interested in the future of America.
we’d at least have a common enemy that we could all unite against and stop sniping at each other over minor differences.
I’m noticing it now.
Did they forget to colour him in or is it on purpose to draw your eye closer to the crucifixion
You know, I’ve never noticed it before but Alexander the Great in the painting behind Ozymandias looks like he’s wearing a diaper.
And armbands. Next to a barbecue.
Come on Anders. Im not being antagonistic or saying anything unreasonable at all.
Its pretty clear that some posters will ignore or dislike anything I post in this thread by default, which I am fine with.
I would like to talk about things critically, which I have tried to do.
If you would prefer to discuss these issues without me, then I will leave. I talk about these things on a daily basis with people in my real life so its honestly no great loss for me.
I don’t think you’re antagonistic, nor inflammatory. The most important thing to take from my post is that I was taking the piss. More than anything. I often am, and I am rarely entirely serious. Especially not in this thread.
If there was a fragment of actual criticism against you in my reductive name-calling it would be not about antagonisticness or being inflammatory, but about being nochalantly dismissive. Which I by saying so, also was.
I’ll try to tone my pisstaking down in this thread if you want. I can see how it’s a bad idea seeing as politically charged topics often leads to, as someone above said, a butting of heads.
Come on Anders. Im not being antagonistic or saying anything unreasonable at all.
That’s funny because I thought that being antagonistic or saying anything unreasonable was the point of this thread. (J/K).
I stayed away from this thread on the various versions of this board for close to 15 years because I am not a fan of conflict. I am here because I am deathly afraid of another 4 years of Donald Trump and I get worried when people start saying Biden is being too tepid or too centrist. I believe he is doing so in order to get the most votes. I also believe the President should more centrist. Trump is not and look at our current mess.
Again, I believe that IF you want more leftist issues represented in government vote local and state for those issues. you can also travel and campaign for other local seats if you feel that strongly about those issues. just don’t not vote for Biden because he doesn’t support a certain issue as strongly as you would like.
My philosophy is very weak but I remember(i am old and memory is rusty) there was a tenet of philosophy that stated the larger a society grew, the more centrist it should become. this is because in order to live among others we have to acknowledge their beliefs as they should acknowledge ours so that we can live in peace and harmony. The Republicans have ignored this and try to impose their will on others. I believe Biden is trying to acknowledge as many different views in order to combat the diehard Trumpists.
We should not criticize Biden’s centrist-ism but embrace it so we can move forward as a country and away from Trumpism.
Japan PM Shinzo Abe set to announce resignation amid health concerns
I know a few people this will please greatly. Abe seems to get a free pass in the Western press, as foreign leaders sometimes do, but he’s pretty right wing, embracing some of Japan’s darker past actions and pretty corrupt (although, a little amusingly to these gaijin’s ears, one of those scandals is the “cherry blossom viewing scandal” which is the most twee Japanese sounding thing you could have a scandal about).
Interesting that Shinzo Abe’s resignation announcement resulting in the Nikkei Stock Market falling, but the Yen strengthening.
Strange coincidence the guest list was shredded right when questions were raised about the lack of transparency over escalating costs amid accusations of cherry blossom cronyism and misuse of public resources for political gain.
It was initially intended as a way to honour and celebrate outstanding achievements in various fields such as the arts and public service and sports, etc. not alleged kickbacks.
"Dilbert" creator Scott Adams uncover the hidden satanic symbolism in Joe Biden's campaign slogan. https://t.co/gjyHQasTL6 pic.twitter.com/RicsFX9vSi
— Right Wing Watch (@RightWingWatch) August 26, 2020
Okaaaayyyy…
Scott Adams has proven again and again he’s a gobshite.
IIRC, in the 60’s it was the race riots in Watts and Newark on TV that scared a lot of whites and prompted a conservative backlash. Nixon took advantage and made office.
Now Trump in the RNC is emphasizing law and order and trying to scare whites with Biden’s America, threatening the white suburbs, riot footage and so on. Will that work to his favor?
Jesse Helms’ “Hands” ad, George Bush’s “Weekend Passes” ad. It’s happened before.
IIRC, in the 60’s it was the race riots in Watts and Newark on TV that scared a lot of whites and prompted a conservative backlash. Nixon took advantage and made office.
Now Trump in the RNC is emphasizing law and order and trying to scare whites with Biden’s America, threatening the white suburbs, riot footage and so on. Will that work to his favor?
I think you can spot the clear difference though. Those incidents happened under LBJ so Nixon was offering an alternative.
Trump seems to be selling the disturbances are down to Biden even though he’s in power. “Look at this Democrat hell which is happening under a Republican regime”.
That’s not to say people won’t fall for it, driven by racism, but it has an inherent flaw in the argument that Nixon’s didn’t.
There is talk about swing states and the undecided. If by now, you are still “undecided” about the one in office after 4 years of his antics, tweets, and scandals…I really don’t know. The GOP are hoping to scare the suburbanite voters to them.
My previous post was about how all this riot footage can backfire.
I don’t like how this is being painted as the good guys vs. the bad guys… More like the lesser of the two choices.
You know… years ago on MW, there was this right wing guy posting and I wonder what he has to say about the one in office now.
Then a few others were critical of Obama and I wonder what they have to say now about inexperienced clowns in office, inifidelity, etc.
I guess they are eating their own words… Then again who cares?
Aris used to be strongly Republican on this board, not any more. 2 days ago he posted this on Facebook:
Yakko Dan was the last really right wing guy on MW, I somehow doubt he has changed but you never know.
GUY WHO POSTED LIKE THIS, AL?
No.
I don’t really want to mention any names, but he was a public relations guy and against Obama and the Dems. He also said he was a Tea Party member. (What happened to the Tea Party?)
There were a few others who made remarks about Obama not being experienced. I just wonder a little about what they have to say now.
GUY WHO POSTED LIKE THIS, AL?
THAT WAS JIM ARCHONIS.
Yes, let’s keep talking about vaguely hinted at but unidentified posters of years past.
Moving on, the UK now has the perfect trade expert to steer policy through the storms of Hard Brexit. I give you… Tony Abbott.
If there was any doubt left over Johnson going for the dreamed of super right-wing government, it has to be gone now.
They’re now the moderate wing of the Republicans
How times have changed.
Another thing: At the Oklahoma City bombing (Timothy McVeigh) the militia movement was first identified and was seen as an enemy from within. Now some see the militias in a different light.
I blame the media for not informing the public on these changes over the years.
Oh… I don’t spark debates on past posters, just inquire on what they would say now…. and people get on me for “shifting gears” and wanting to change topics saying I am not a mod to do so.
Just saying.
Another thing: At the Oklahoma City bombing (Timothy McVeigh) the militia movement was first identified and was seen as an enemy from within. Now some see the militias in a different light.
I blame the media for not informing the public on these changes over the years.
I don’t know, I feel like there was always a big chunck of the US that had a positive attitude towards those white gangs. Remember the Minutemen? That was during the Bush Jr. years, and it was quite hotly disputed.
Now in the news, he is in “hot water” for having called captured and injured military veterans “losers and suckers”. He denies it obviously but he did say that McCain wasn’t a war hero because he was captured and did call him a loser. People remember that.
Will it cost him? Depends on how hot the water is.
Will it cost him?
No. Anyone who was going to reject him for being an asshole would have done it by now.
Will it cost him?
No. Anyone who was going to reject him for being an asshole would have done it by now.
I saw an article this morning where Trump’s supporters were trying to rationalize it as him being against war, not the troops.
Will it cost him?
No. Anyone who was going to reject him for being an asshole would have done it by now.
I saw an article this morning where Trump’s supporters were trying to rationalize it as him being against war, not the troops.
Exactly, there will always be an excuse. The same way the killings of black men are rationalised as them being criminals, even though that then suggests that crimes like selling individual cigarettes are justification for execution
Will it cost him? Depends on how hot the water is.
Not in a huge significant shift, as Lorcan says he’s basically been an arsehole and lied continuously for 4 years and his base don’t care. The evangelists didn’t care that he paid off porn stars.
However I would say this can be a game of very fine margins. 70,000 votes in specific states, in a country of 320 million, made the difference last time.
Yeah, nothing anyone says about Trump is going to shift things much one way or the other at this point. Particularly negative things. The last 4 years we’ve heard an endless string of terrible things he’s said or done (including him insulting military heroes) and his approval ratings have barely wavered one way or the other
And if you look at the polling of the race itself, even those have been weirdly stable with Biden polling at or above 50% with a 7 point or greater advantage for a solid 3 months now. In a time of incredible instability, these polls have been ridiculously steady. Everyone is basically hunkered down so the only question is which side will actually have more people show up to vote this year. Sadly, the Dems can only win if a significant number of liberals show up because the electoral college leans pretty heavily to the right. Biden can win the popular vote by 3-4% (which would be more than Hillary won it by even) and still will have a very large chance of losing the election. It’s a terrible system.
I really wouldn’t put it past anyone that he could be reelected despite everything.
I said something controversial about some Americans being ignorant and was somewhat rightfully called attention by Will at the time.
Then again how many millions voted for him?
Oh… and I had in mind the former poster who called himself Tristang.
Oh, Tristang, yeah, right. Yeah, he was an interesting addition, back then. I seem to remember him as being particularly hard to engage with as he was continually shifting his positions, and sometimes into quite weird territory. It was easier with someone like Yakko Dan, who had very firm views that you could understand and discuss.
Where Trumps recent statements are concerned, fuck, any rational person has known he’s an asshole for a long time now. This won’t make a difference. It’s maybe interesting look at his psyche, though even that is so much on display that it’s kind of obvious. But nevertheless…
When lashing out at critics, Trump often reaches for illogical and corrosive insults, and members of the Bush family have publicly opposed him. But his cynicism about service and heroism extends even to the World War I dead buried outside Paris—people who were killed more than a quarter century before he was born. Trump finds the notion of military service difficult to understand, and the idea of volunteering to serve especially incomprehensible.
[…]
Trump was meant, on this visit, to join John Kelly in paying respects at his son’s grave, and to comfort the families of other fallen service members. But according to sources with knowledge of this visit, Trump, while standing by Robert Kelly’s grave, turned directly to his father and said, “I don’t get it. What was in it for them?” Kelly (who declined to comment for this story) initially believed, people close to him said, that Trump was making a ham-handed reference to the selflessness of America’s all-volunteer force. But later he came to realize that Trump simply does not understand non-transactional life choices.
“He can’t fathom the idea of doing something for someone other than himself,” one of Kelly’s friends, a retired four-star general, told me. “He just thinks that anyone who does anything when there’s no direct personal gain to be had is a sucker. There’s no money in serving the nation.” Kelly’s friend went on to say, “Trump can’t imagine anyone else’s pain. That’s why he would say this to the father of a fallen marine on Memorial Day in the cemetery where he’s buried.”
[…]
Yet another, related, explanation concerns what appears to be Trump’s pathological fear of appearing to look like a “sucker” himself. His capacious definition of sucker includes those who lose their lives in service to their country, as well as those who are taken prisoner, or are wounded in battle. “He has a lot of fear,” one officer with firsthand knowledge of Trump’s views said. “He doesn’t see the heroism in fighting.” Several observers told me that Trump is deeply anxious about dying or being disfigured, and this worry manifests itself as disgust for those who have suffered. Trump recently claimed that he has received the bodies of slain service members “many, many” times, but in fact he has traveled to Dover Air Force Base, the transfer point for the remains of fallen service members, only four times since becoming president. In another incident, Trump falsely claimed that he had called “virtually all” of the families of service members who had died during his term, then began rush-shipping condolence letters when families said the president was not telling the truth.
Trump shows all the signs of an adult sociopath, including:
1. Lack of empathy
2. Disregard for right and wrong
3. Wit and charm
4. Impulsiveness
5. Arrogance
6. Aggression
I’m not convinced on the wit and charm bit.
I said it to my friend the other day.
I said that I believe we are witnessing the actual rise of the fourth reich, if you will, in the United States.
With pause, he said to me: “Yeah, and… What the fuck should we do?”
Guys.
Hear me out. Please.
What the FUCK should we do?
I wish I knew what to do about it, but I don’t. This is easily the most scared I’ve been about the future of America in my lifetime. And I’m a fairly well off white dude. Still, this president has brought to the surface many poorly hidden truths about American politics and values. I think most of us knew the political/government system was a bit shit, but it’s been laid completely bare that it may be irrevocably broken. Every check and balance we’re supposed to have in place to prevent presidents like Trump have been tossed out in support of conservative judge appointments, some tax cuts for the rich and fancy fighter jets that don’t even work properly. And it points to how profoundly selfish much of America is. Progressive and social justice have increasingly become dirty words all so that too many allegedly Christian Americans can worship at the alter of capitalism instead. So obsessed with it are we as a nation, that we’ll now openly embolden white supremacy to keep it even as it slowly leans towards failure. And I guess that makes sense, considering American capitalism (like all of America) was build on the back of slavery. Which I suppose explains the Trump presidency, because I can think of no greater figurehead for such values than Donald Trump. He’s a racist, selfish failed businessman who knows how to sell a brand that’s completely opposite. That, right there, is America in a nutshell.
And it’s hard to see a path forward. The small hope I see is that Biden and Harris have been polling consistently above 50% and with at least a 7 point lead for 3 months now. According to polling averages right now they’re up 7.5%. For context, with the same number of days left until the election in 2016, Clinton had a 3.5% lead in the national polls. It’s unlikely we’ll see something like Clinton’s emails in 2016 that can help upend things. For all of the knocks they throw at Biden for being a career politician, it does help in that regard. For better or worse, we basically know all there is to know about Joe. Still, in order for him to win and be effective, he has to get that big turnout in Michigan, PA, WI at the very least. More likely he also needs it in Florida and even Arizona. He probably needs it in Maine and Colorado and North Carolina and Georgia and even Iowa in order for Dems to win the Senate.
And look, I’ll take a Biden presidency even with a shitbag GOP senate. At least he could bring some level of stability back to the country even if all he can do is be a calming voice who rescinds some of Trump’s terrible executive orders. But still, it’s hard to see an election night scenario right now that doesn’t lead to more chaos. Maybe that’s all we deserve.
The success of progressive candidates in various Democratic primary races has given me a lot of encouragement about the future of the nation. The old-fart Democratic Party powers have been part of the problem all along, putting their support and money behind more conservative players and those who adhere to “staying the course” in spite of the ineffectiveness of that course. The fact that these progressives like AOC and “the Squad” are gaining support in spite of being abandoned by their own Party means that quite a number of disenfranchised Americans are using their voice and their vote to demand changes, not just a change from Republican rule to Democrat rule, but also from status quo to new values and ideals.
What discourages me, however, is all the indications that the Republicans and their overseas allies will steal the November election through a combination of voter suppression (fucking up the Post Office to impact vote-by-mail, tactics to turn away voters in minority and poor districts) and hacking by their overseas allies who want Trump in there for four more years.
I think most of us knew the political/government system was a bit shit, but it’s been laid completely bare that it may be irrevocably broken. Every check and balance we’re supposed to have in place to prevent presidents like Trump have been tossed out in support of conservative judge appointments, some tax cuts for the rich and fancy fighter jets that don’t even work properly.
That is the scary thing, how they’ve run roughshod over checks and balances and ‘political convention’. I don’t know how you can put that one back in the bag now it has been proven you can just ignore it all.
It’s happening in the UK too now albeit on a less dramatic scale, appointing cronies, refusing to go on certain TV shows or not allowing access to newspapers that are critical. Forcing Parliament into recess to avoid debate. The BBC which has traditionally been a bastion of impartiality has had its board stuffed with political appointments.
Also, in addition to the planning “reforms” announced aka giving developers free rein, there’s a devolution bill coming down the pipe for the UK that will probably be controversial i.e. blatant central government power grab.
There’s no shortage of ominous activity in Johnson’s government, it isn’t just limited to Brexit.
This is both deeply stupid and arrogant:
“Boris Johnson is drawing up legislation that will override the Brexit withdrawal agreement on Northern Ireland, a move that threatens the collapse of crunch talks which the prime minister has said must be completed within five weeks.
Johnson will put an ultimatum to negotiators this week, saying the UK and Europe must agree a post-Brexit trade deal by 15 October or Britain will walk away for good.
But progress on the already fragile talks will be threatened by plans revealed on Sunday for the UK government to publish a controversial section of the internal market bill on Wednesday that will intentionally try to unpick parts of the withdrawal agreement signed in January. It will include elements of the special arrangements for Northern Ireland that are legally binding.
A UK government source told the Guardian the plan was part of the preparation for a no-deal exit that would present a number of new barriers to trade from Northern Ireland – and accepted that the move was likely to blow up at the negotiations this week.
Labour said the prime minister was “threatening to renege on the UK’s legal obligations” and called it “an act of immense bad faith: one that would be viewed dimly by future trading partners and allies around the world”.
The news was condemned by Ireland’s foreign affairs minister, Simon Coveney, who helped broker the original Brexit settlement. He said any change would be “very unwise”. “
If they do this, what country with any sense would strike a trade deal with the UK? As the UK would have already shown previous willingness to throw away any deal whenever it suits.
We have treaties.
Ink on a page.
And then there is the 3,000 new covid cases:
there’s a devolution bill coming down the pipe for the UK that will probably be controversial i.e. blatant central government power grab. There’s no shortage of ominous activity in Johnson’s government, it isn’t just limited to Brexit.
Although that one is Brexit related. Constitutionally they can’t undo the powers of devolution just like that. What they are doing is drafting post Brexit ‘internal market’ trade legislation that effectively means several policy areas must be unified across the UK.
Ironically it’s replacing the various rules you have to follow as a member of the EU with ones drafted by Westminster. So say in something like Scotland’s minimum alcohol pricing, that could be argued as a restraint of trade compared to the rest of the UK, even though its intention is a public health goal. We don’t know yet but the possibility is it could be extended much further into opening up the devolved NHS’ which currently have minimal private involvement compared to England.
Maybe into schools, there are no academy schools in Wales and the majority remain under LEA control, could they use the post Brexit ‘internal market’ to overrule that? I don’t know but it’s a possibility. If they do it I suspect it’ll fuel the rise in independence support even more.
Oh so that’s what they’re up to, had just heard about it but hadn’t linked it to Brexit.
Johnson’s overall political strategy at the moment seems to be to distract from outcry over the fire in one corner of the room by setting a slightly larger fire in another.
It’s a strategy that can only last so long before it all burns down around him.
Oh no Dave, once one building is entirely on fire the solution is simple – leg it and set fire to another.
Then blame the neighbours for making you live in a building that’s on fire.
By jove, you’ve got it my dear fellow.
In all seriousness though, I think that what Johnson is doing here is deliberately lowering the expectation so that the minimum possible achievement in the process – reaching a deal – is recast as some kind of unlikely, unreachable goal.
Then, having set the bar this low, a deal on any terms can be spun as a win against expectations.
It’s what he did with the withdrawal agreement – when he triumphantly returned with a deal that was worse than what May was offering – and it seems to be his plan here.
The prospect of no-deal is effective for the Tories as a scary ‘worst case scenario’, a bogeyman, against which literally any alternative looks good. Make people believe it’s the likely outcome, and then you can claim victory when you only dump the country halfway into the shit.
The only way to get any kind of deal is for, behind closed doors, the EU rocks up and says: “Sign this”, the Brits do so, then Johnson spins it in public as a “great victory”.
The only way to get any kind of deal is for, behind closed doors, the EU rocks up and says: “Sign this”, the Brits do so, then Johnson spins it in public as a “great victory”.
It could be. Johnson himself doesn’t worry me overtly because he has no ideology, we have him on camera lauding the EU and free trade. U-turns are second nature to him because he doesn’t care. He just wants to be to the manor born.
It is Cummings and pals behind it all that do worry me. I think they want Singapore-on-Thames and are willing to brace any downturn in the short and medium term to get there. Robert Peston today is saying that Cummings wants no deal to engage in a massive IT and AI subsidy idea that would drive the UK as world leader. Aside from Arm on the hardware side and a few game developers the UK doesn’t really have significant players there, it is all the US, a bit of China (with stuff like Tik-Tok and they are way ahead of everyone on the planet with phone payments). Sweden have Spotify but everything else on your phone or PC is largely US led.
In some ways I actually quite like this. Finland did it with Nokia (within the EU to be noted), a move predicting the communications boom in the late 90s so a tiny country had market share globally. However behind it all just seems a drive for more cash for the boys. Everyone involved here are his pals and I know since I work in it it is incredibly low labour intensive work. AI in itself is a job wrecker so without a matching plan for something like UBI or an expansion of the leisure economy it’ll devastate large swathes of people.
It’s a vision but one that I think will go to very dark places if that’s all they have.
It could be. Johnson himself doesn’t worry me overtly because he has no ideology, we have him on camera lauding the EU and free trade. U-turns are second nature to him because he doesn’t care. He just wants to be to the manor born.
I agree, and this is part of the problem I think. Johnson has no real fixed goal, he could spin a no-deal or a shit deal equally and doesn’t seem overly bothered either way, as long as it serves his personal purposes (which both do in different ways).
In truth I’m not really betting strongly on one outcome over the other, he could walk away or cave and I wouldn’t be that surprised, the only thing that makes me think he’d favour a last-minute crap deal is the personal political capital he could mine from it.
It may have taken far longer than it should, but Johnson may be starting to dimly realise whatever happens will be linked to him forever. He has no place to hide as PM.
Of course, this is little more than betting on Johnson’s sense of ego.
I think he sought the status of PM out of vanity without really wanting to do any of the actual work that the job requires. He seems to have avoided leadership at every turn since becoming PM and only really functions in constant campaigning mode, which is not really what you need when you actually have to engage with anything/anyone else in terms of negotiation or diplomacy.
Remind you of anyone?
It probably doesn’t matter that much. When you take a step back from the politics of today you’ll actually see it’s all movements, not individuals.
The man who presided over the highest upper tax rate in US history was Republican Dwight Eisenhower.
Jeremy Corbyn’s manifesto in 2017 was roughly equivalent to Margaret Thatcher’s status quo in 1987, except he proposed a lower income tax rate.
So, get this, we have a Minister of the Crown, on public record, in Parliament, announcing that the new bill breaks international law.
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